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05Oct2016 Market Update: US Markets Trading Higher In Face Of Climbing Crude Prices, Gold Falling Again, Investors Seriously Concerned About Market Stability

Written by Gary

Unexpectedly the US markets opened higher and remained elevated during the morning hours in spite of strong gains in the crude sector. Also, gold has continued to erode trading at the 1266 level and the US dollar remains just below its resistance.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 1.38% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.49% and Mexico's IPC is up 0.09%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 62%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 49%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 62% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-31.15 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)

76% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 66% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 68% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

17.32 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 80.28 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,692

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street boosted by financial, energy stocks

(Reuters) - Wall Street rose for the first time in three days on Wednesday, powered by gains in financial and energy shares.

U.S. top court leans toward making insider trading prosecutions easier

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Supreme Court justices hearing a closely watched insider trading case indicated on Wednesday they could issue a ruling that would make it easier for prosecutors to pursue such charges against hedge fund managers and other traders.

U.S. trade deficit widens in August on higher imports

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit rose more than expected in August as a rise in imports offset higher exports.

Oil surges over 2 percent to June highs on another U.S. crude draw

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices hit session highs on Wednesday, rising to their highest since June, after the U.S. government reported another surprise weekly drawdown in crude inventories.

Chicago suspends Wells Fargo from city business for a year

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The Chicago City Council on Wednesday approved a one-year suspension for Wells Fargo & Co from city business in the wake of its phony accounts scandal.

Apple, Google, Coca-Cola top list of 100 most valuable brands: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Apple Inc , Alphabet Inc's Google and Coca-Cola Co topped the list of the world's 100 most valuable brands in 2016, while technology and automotive brands dominated the overall rankings, according to a new report from brand consultancy Interbrand.

BlackRock cuts ETF prices prior to Labor Dept's fiduciary rule

(Reuters) - BlackRock Inc , the world's biggest asset manager, said it would cut prices across its growing U.S. iShares Core exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to help wealth advisers transition to a new rule governing retirement products.

Germany floats plan to buy new Lockheed transport planes

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is looking at buying 4-6 new Lockheed Martin C-130J military troop transport planes and operating them jointly with France, placing a further dent in plans for a fully European airlift capability following the delayed A400M.

McDonald's, franchisees hit with sexual harassment complaints

(Reuters) - A union-backed group said it had filed complaints on behalf of 15 U.S. McDonald's workers who say they were sexually harassed on the job, in the latest challenge to how the fast-food company and its franchisees treat employees.

Both Democrats and Republicans Agree - The Vice Presidential Debate Was a KaineWreck!

Both Democrats and Republicans Agree - The Vice Presidential Debate Was a KaineWreck! Written by Nathan McDonald

Brexit Mastermind Farage Resumes Leadership Of UKIP As Replacement Quits After 18 Days

Just 18 days after she took the mantle of running the UK Independence Party, Diane James has stepped down - citing personal reasons for her decision - leaving Nigel Farage stepping back in as 'acting leader'. But, as SkyNews reports, MEP Farage ruled out re-applying on a permanent basis for what he called a "rotten job".

Diane James, who had promised to help get UKIP 'race ready' for the election, became the party's first female leader on 16 September after a landslide victory in the leadership contest.

In a statement, she said it was with "great regret" and the decision was down to "personal and professional reasons".

The personal reasons are understood to be related to her husband being unwell, said Sky's chief political correspondent Jon Craig.

Ms James said she would not be "formalising my recent nomination to become leader of the party with the Electoral Commission".

But, she added:

"I have been in discussion with party officers about the role.

"It has become clear that I do not have sufficient authority, nor the full support of all my MEP colleagues and party officers to implement changes I believe necessary and upon which I based my campaign."

And so, now, Nigel Farage has told Sky News he is temporarily back at the helm of the party...

BofA Says It Has Found Evidence Of An "Imminent Recession"

As Bank of America's Savita Subramanian writes in an overnight note titled "Is it about time for a recession?", while the bank's economists do not officially predict a recession in the coming year, instead forecasting slow and steady growth in the US, the strategist admits that over seven years and more than 270% into this bull market, "one wonders how much longer this cycle can last."

While BofA writes that it has not yet found a model that accurately forecast recessions, "and even if we did, not all recessions result in bear markets" in examining some of some of the bank's favorite indicators' recent trends, it has "found evidence for an imminent recession." It adds that while the range of signals is wide, in aggregate they do suggest that, if data were to continue to weaken in line with the recent pace, history would point to a recession in the second half of 2017.

Admittedly, other macro indicators, such as consumer confidence and initial jobless claims, still point to healthy growth. But historically, equity returns have been strongest prior to the peak in building permit issuance growth (2012 in this cycle) and the probability of a bear market has been high when the yield curve was inverted (not until 2018 based on the trend).

How did BofA determine that a recession is imminent? Here is its explanation:

What if current trends persist? We chose five macro indicators and determined what levels tended to coincide with historical recessions and bear markets. While we are cognizant that trends change and that relying on the recent trend can often give you false signals when trends reverse, we also think that there is some value in considering what might ...

Deutsche Bank 'Coco' Pain Isn't What it Seems

As Deutsche Bank's stock has been battered, anxiety has also gathered around its other forms of capital, notably convertible junior bonds known as cocos.

It's No Time to Shop for Tesco's Shares

Most executives try to under-promise and over-deliver. Tesco Chief Executive Dave Lewis used to be no exception—hence the share-price surge that followed publication of the U.K. grocery giant's expectation-busting results.

Apple's Price Is Right for iPhone 7

A higher average selling price for new iPhones could pay off well for Apple.

The Moneyologist: This is one person you should never unfriend on Facebook

The ugly truth about unfriending: It can also be great fun.

How U.S. companies could mend America's crumbling infrastructure with overseas cash

Standard & Poor's argues that a program that would allow companies bring back cash on a tax-free basis but invest 15% in infrastructure bonds would help the economy and create jobs.

Airlines unveil 'no-crying' zones

No kids allowed in these rows.

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