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04Oct2016 Market Update: US Stock Market About To Fall From Bullish Sideways Trading Over Last Three Months, However Gold's Eye Opening Retraction May Be Very Bullish

Written by Gary

US stock market at decision point (SPY -0.6%) as gold waterfalls to new low since (1269) June, 2016 and solidly breaking through major support (1300). Crude Prices holding in the low 49 handle and the US dollar still testing its resistance. Indicators fractionally bearish.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 1.22%, while the S&P 500 is leading the IPC lower. They are down 0.55% and 0.32% respectively.

What's Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street see-saws as investors assess rate-hike chances

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks see-sawed on Tuesday as investors assessed the prospects of an interest rate hike in the coming months.

Google announces new Pixel phone at San Francisco event

(Reuters) - Alphabet Inc's Google on Tuesday announced a new "Pixel" smartphone at an event on Tuesday, the company's latest effort to sell consumers on a Google-branded device and to challenge Apple Inc's iPhone at the high end of the $400 billion global market.

Delta posts smaller-than-expected fall in passenger unit revenue

(Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc reported a smaller-than-expected drop in consolidated passenger unit revenue for September and maintained its operating margin forecast for the quarter despite suffering a system outage in August.

Fed's Lacker says he would have dissented at September meeting

CHARLESTON, W.V. (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said he would have voted in favor of an interest rate hike at the Fed's September policy meeting had he been able to vote, reflecting the growing pressure on Fed Chair Janet Yellen to raise rates.

Global stock markets set for modest gains in 2017: Reuters polls

(Reuters) - Global equities are forecast to rise modestly in 2017, held back by concerns about the pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the waning effect of widespread monetary stimulus that has helped drive shares to lofty heights, Reuters polls show.

U.S. retail group expects pickup in holiday sales growth

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. holiday sales will increase by 3.6 percent in 2016, more sharply than last year, as a stronger job market and robust household spending have improved consumer sentiment, according to an outlook from the leading retail industry group.

OPEC sights set for now on $50-60 per barrel oil: PIRA's Ross

NEW YORK (Reuters) - OPEC producers have their sights set on a sustained oil price of $50-$60 per barrel, a modest ambition for the first cut in supply by the oil exporting group in eight years, says one of the industry's top forecasters.

U.S. regulators open probe into brake issues on Ford F-150 trucks

DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. vehicle safety regulators have opened an investigation into complaints of brake problems in an estimated 282,000 recent model year Ford F-150 pickup trucks, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on its website on Tuesday.

Citi investing another $1 billion in renamed Mexico unit Citibanamex

(Reuters) - Citigroup Inc is investing another $1 billion in its Mexican bank and renaming it Citibanamex in the strongest signal from management that the business is worth keeping for the long run.

Yahoo Admits It Secretly Hacked All User Accounts For US Intelligence

Just days after admitting that some 500 millions of its email accounts were hacked (allegedly Russians, of course), the Yahoo confessional continues as Reuters reports, somewhat stunningly that, Yahoo secretly built software to search all of its customers' incoming emails for US intel officials. Yahoo's reaction to this: we are "a law abiding company."

Following claims of state-sponsored attacks of its customers' email accounts, Reuters reports, Yahoo also hacked its own customers' accounts...

Yahoo Inc last year secretly built a custom software program to search all of its customers' incoming emails for specific information provided by U.S. intelligence officials, according to people familiar with the matter.

The company complied with a classified U.S. government directive, scanning hundreds of millions of Yahoo Mail accounts at the behest of the National Security Agency or FBI, said two former employees and a third person apprised of the events.

Some surveillance experts said this represents the first case to surface of a U.S. Internet company agreeing to a spy agency's demand by searching all arriving messages, as opposed to examining stored messages or scanning a small number of accounts in real time.

According to the t ...

ECB Spokesman Denies The Governing Council Has Discussed Tapering

With the market shaken by the earlier report, or rather "trial balloon" by Bloomberg that the ECB was contemplating tapering, we said in our previous article that it was only a matter of time before someone at the ECB - having observed the impact on the market - would come out and deny it.

This happened moments ago when Michael Steen, formerly of the FT, and currently head of media relations at the ECB, said that the "ECB has not discussed these topics, as Draghi said at last press conference and during testimony at the European Parliament."

Governing Council has not discussed these topics, as Draghi said at last press conference and during testimony at the European Parliament https://t.co/7HPfF5Ynof

— Michael teen (@michaelsteen) October 4, 2016

It's already in the Bloomberg story, but thought worth repeating here. Last press conference https://t.co/TMRzqu94Z1 pic.twitter.com/5u2JWNeAX6

— Michael Steen (@michaelsteen) October 4, 2016

And here's a quote from the last European Parliament hearing on 26 September (alas no online transcript) pic.twitter.com/vsCPcWAmvV

— Michael Steen (@michaelsteen) October 4, 2016

Silver Crashes To $17 Handle - Biggest Drop In 20 Months

Silver Futures just extended their losses over 5%, back down to a $17 handle for the first time since Brexit...

This is the biggest 1- and 2-day drop since Jan 2015...

Silver's underperformance has driven the Gold/Silver ratio up to 71x...

Canada's Fourth Largest Bank Erases $1 Billion In Excess Capital In Unexpected Accounting Gimmick

Early in 2016, when oil prices were plunging and when US banks were careful to push up their loan loss reserves to exposed E&P loans, we noted something surprising: Canadian banks had barely taken any loss reserves to their exposure in the oil and gas sector.

As and RBC report calculated at the time, if they used the same average reserve level as that applied by US banks, Canadian banks' current loss allowance excluding RBC would surge from $170MM to over $2.5 billion, resulting in a substantial hit to earnings, and potentially impairing the banks' ability to service dividends and future cash distributions.

For months this discrepancy persisted even as oil remained well below last year's levels, leaving Canadian bank watchers stumped as to just how Canadian banks planned to pull this particular "Exxon" without suffering balance sheet impariment, until this morning when we may have gotten the answer how the local Canadian money centers "planned" to resolve this odd accounting gimmick.

Today Bank of Montreal, perhaps the biggest violator of the loan loss reserve recongition, fell the most in two months after restating it restated its regulatory capital ratios for the first three quarters of the year. As

Bonds and Stocks: It's Getting Complicated

September saw unusual movements in stocks and bonds. The happy balance that has rewarded fixed-income and equity investors may be shifting.

Apple's Price Is Right for iPhone 7

A higher average selling price for new iPhones could pay off well for Apple.

Good Case for LVMH's Groovy German Acquisition

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuittonhas bagged a good maiden deal in Germany. Just don't expect the usual cost-cutting or cross-selling to boost profits.

Key Words: Bill Clinton calls Obamacare 'the craziest thing in the world'

Bill Clinton, speaking on behalf of his wife at a Democratic rally Monday, slammed Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act.

The Margin: Jamie Oliver stirs controversy by tossing chorizo — and Brexit — into paella recipe

Famed British chef Oliver has ushered in a regional skirmish over one of Spain's most beloved dishes.

Outside the Box: The truth no politician will utter: Trade is good for America

Why won't Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton state the obvious: Trade is very good for America, Barry Wood writes.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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