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03Oct2016 Market Close: DB, Election And Earnings Are Going To Kill The Global Markets, Crude Closes Higher, Gold Slips Lower, Investors Worry About EU Financial Woes

Written by Gary

US markets close lower (SPY - 0.2%), but up from session lows. The fourth quarter got off to a weak start for U.S. stock investors today, with banks and utilities pulling the S&P 500 lower. The bad news is the election, Deutsche Bank and earnings stand in the way of a continuing bullish trend.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street falls as investors fret about big banks

(Reuters) - The fourth quarter got off to a weak start for U.S. stock investors on Monday, with banks and utilities pulling the S&P 500 lower.

Bass Pro Shops hooks Cabela's in $5.5 billion deal

(Reuters) - Cabela's Inc said it agreed to be bought by Bass Pro Shops in a deal valued at $5.5 billion that will combine the top two hunting and fishing retailers in the United States.

U.S. factories rebound, resisting global downward pull

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. factories ramped up activity in September, shaking off a one-month contraction in a sign America was resisting the downward pull of the sluggish global economy.

Clinton promises to hold Wells Fargo accountable

TOLEDO, Ohio (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on Monday vowed to hold Wells Fargo accountable for "egregious corporate behavior" in a scandal over employees' opening millions of accounts without customers' knowledge.

September U.S. auto sales down 0.5 percent even as discounts rise

DETROIT (Reuters) - Major automakers posted September U.S. sales on Monday that were slightly lower than a year ago, despite big consumer discounts, as pickup truck volumes fell for both General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co .

Don't delay U.S. rate hike, says Fed's Mester: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should not delay in raising interest rates in order to keep up with the economy, said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, suggesting she would again back a modest policy tightening next month.

Chevron supports director Stumpf despite Wells Fargo morass

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Chevron Corp on Monday said it stands behind John Stumpf, a member of its board and the chief executive of bank Wells Fargo & Co , despite growing concerns about his leadership during a customer service scandal.

GM, Ford Canada auto sales rise in September

TORONTO (Reuters) - General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co reported higher September vehicle sales in Canada on Monday, boosted by strong demand for pickup trucks.

Deutsche Bank shares slip again in race to reach U.S. settlement

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank shares resumed falling on Monday after recovering from a record low at the end of last week, as hopes faded of a swift deal with U.S. authorities over a multi-billion dollar penalty.

Saudi Arabia Responds To US 9/11 Bill Veto

In the immortal words of Queen Victoria, Saudi Arabia "is not amused."

With the first 9/11 lawsuit already winging its way to The Kingdom following Congress' decision to un-vet, Saudi officials have broken their silence "stressing their concern" and warning of "consequences."

The Minister of State, Cabinet's Member, and Acting Minister of Culture and Information Dr. Essam bin Saad bin Saeed said in a statement to Saudi Press Agency following the session that the Cabinet stressed that the adoption of "JASTA" Law in the United States of America is of great concern to the international community in which international relations are based on the principle of equality and sovereign immunity, the principle governing international relations for hundreds of years.

The weakening of the sovereign immunity affects negatively all countries, including the United States of America, expressing the hope that wisdom prevails and the United States Congress takes the necessary steps to avoid serious and grave consequences that may result from enacting "JASTA" Law.

Source: SPA

This comes as Saudi stocks, credit, and c ...

US Suspends Diplomatic Relations With Russia On Syria

What last week was just a not-so-thinly-veiled-threat lobbed by John Kerry to the Kremlin has, now that Russia suspended its participation in a Plutonium cleanup accord with the US, become official, and as the State Department announced moments ago, the US has now suspended bilateral discussions, i.e. diplomatic relations, with Russia over Syria, escalating the conflict in the war-torn nation to a level last seen in late 2015.

"This is not a decision that was taken lightly," State Department spokesman John Kirby said, cited by AFP, accusing Russia and its Syrian ally of stepping up attacks on civilian areas. Kirby said the Russian and US militaries will continue to use a communications channel set up to ensure their forces do not get in each others' way during "counterterrorism operations in Syria."

Kirby's full statement is below:

The United States is calling home personnel who had been sent to Geneva in order to set-up a "Joint Implementation Center" with Russian officers to plan coordinated strikes.

And US diplomats will suspend discussions with Russia on reviving a September 9 deal reached between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Under that protocol, a truce came into effect on September 12 but it collapsed within a week amid bitter recriminations and a surge of fighting in the five-year-old civil war.

Washington has accused Moscow of failing to rein in President Bashar al-Assad's government forces and abetting his strikes on civilian targets. Moscow, meanwhile, ...

How To Win At The "Beat The Wall Street Estimate" Game

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the weekend, I got a few tweets talking about some technical analysis currently being passed around the Internet suggesting the S&P 500 is about to make a significant move towards 2400. While anything is certainly possible, the problem with the analysis is the lack of fundamental underpinnings to support such a move higher, namely, economic growth and corporate profitability.

Of course, the issue ultimately comes down to valuations. At a price of 2400, based on current earnings per share of $86.92, the market would be trading at the second highest level of valuations in history with a P/E of 27.61.

However, as I was tweeted yesterday morning:

@LanceRoberts @JLyonsFundMgmt what about 129-133$ forward earnings est?

— Paolo Riccelli (@paolo_riccelli) October 2, 2016

Let's assume for a moment the $133 EPS estimate was accurate. This would put the forward P/E ratio at just 18x earnings - still well above the long-term historical average P/E of 15.

However, in Paolo's attempt to justify the bullish meme, the forward earnings estimate is no longer $133/share but, according to S&P, just $122.15 through the end of 2017. IF we assume those estimates are correct, now the forward P/E rises to 19.64x earnings. Certainly not cheap.

But even those estimates are a likely a fantasy.

Pentagon Paid British PR Firm $500mm To Create Fake Al Qaeda Propaganda Videos

Per new discoveries revealed by the The Bureau of Investigative Journalism, the United States government paid over $500mm to a British public relations firm, Bell Pottinger, between May 2007 and December 2011 to create fake Al Qaeda propaganda films aimed at tracking terrorist viewing locations. According to a Bell Pottinger insider, propaganda films were categorized into three categories with "White" being accurately attributed, "Grey" being unattributed, and "Black" being falsely attributed material. The media firm created various types of content ranging from TV commercials to news items and "fake Al Qaeda propaganda films."

The work consisted of three types of products. The first was television commercials portraying al Qaeda in a negative light. The second was news items which were made to look as if they had been "created by Arabic TV," Wells said. Bell Pottinger would send teams out to film low-definition video of al Qaeda bombings and then edit it like a piece of news footage. It would be voiced in Arabic and distributed to TV stations across the region, according to Wells.

The third and most sensitive program described by Wells was the production of fake al Qaeda propaganda films. He told the Bureau how the videos were made. He was given precise instructions: "We need to make this style of video and we've got to use al Qaeda's footage," he was told. "We need it to be 10 minutes long, and it needs to be in this file format, and we need to encode it in this manner."

The "Black" propaganda videos included t ...

Janus-Henderson Deal Shows Struggle of Active Managers

The planned merger between asset managers Janus Capital of the U.S. and Henderson Group of the U.K. looks defensive for both companies, as active managers lose ground to the index-tracking industry and global institutional clients look for global fund suppliers.

A New Worry for Banks and the Economy

In a worrying sign for banks, commercial loan growth slowed sharply in the third quarter. The reasons are unclear.

Alibaba Needs to Prove It Can Reach Great Heights

With shares near a post-IPO high, Alibaba has to show its non-core businesses can deliver.

August 2016 Construction Spending Now In Contraction

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines say construction spending was down, and was significantly below expectations. This series is now in contraction after almost 5 years in expansion.

September 2016 ISM Manufacturing Survey Marginally Returns to Expansion

Written by Steven Hansen

The ISM Manufacturing survey marginally crawled out of contraction. The key internals improved and but were mixed. The Markit PMI manufacturing Index, also released today, is in positive territory and marginally declined.

A company may reject you for your looks — and that's totally legal

Whether it's moral or ethical is up for debate.

The Fed: Fed's Mester insists central bank could hike rates six days before election

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester insists the U.S. central bank could hike rates at its next meeting on Nov. 1-2 even though it would be only six days before the presidential election.

Outside the Box: Boomers to employers: age has nothing to do with a job well done

It's time for companies to tap the 'fountain of age' and hire older workers, say two experts on aging and workplace issues.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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