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20Sep2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Expected To Open Higher Ahead Of Fed Two Day Policy Meeting, Crude Prices Lower, US Dollar Higher

Written by Gary

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a marginally higher open today (SPY + 0.4%), as investors awaited policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Markets are currently pricing in just a 12% chance of a rate hike this week, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For December, odds stood at around 59%.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is up 0.77% while London's FTSE 100 is up 0.70% and France's CAC 40 is up 0.46%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Fed again poised to cut longer-run interest rate forecast

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are set this week to again cut their forecasts for how high interest rates will need to go in an economy where output, productivity and inflation are growing at a slower pace than in past decades.

U.S. housing starts, building permits fall in August

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in August as building activity declined broadly after two straight months of solid increases, but a rebound in permits for single-family dwellings suggested demand for housing remained intact.

Global stocks, dollar subdued as Fed, BOJ meetings begin

LONDON (Reuters) - Shares made modest gains and the dollar lost ground against the yen on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcomes of Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy meetings that will conclude on Wednesday.

Bayer raises sales targets for top-selling drugs after Monsanto deal

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German drugmaker Bayer said its two best-selling drugs had a higher annual peak sales potential than previously targeted, after the agreed $66 billion takeover of Monsanto stirred criticism it might neglect its pharmaceuticals business.

SWIFT plans measure to help spot fraudulent bank transfers

LONDON (Reuters) - The SWIFT inter-bank messaging network plans to send daily reports to clients to help them more quickly identify unauthorized payment instructions like those used by hackers to steal $81 million from Bangladesh's central bank in February.

Wells Fargo CEO to take 'full responsibility' in Senate hearing: NY Times

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co's chief executive, John Stumpf, will tell U.S. senators on Tuesday that he is "deeply sorry" for selling customers unauthorized bank accounts and credit cards and that he would take "full responsibility" for the unethical activity, the New York Times reported on Monday.

JPMorgan names Warren Buffett investment lieutenant to board

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co said on Tuesday it elected Todd Combs, a stockpicking deputy of billionaire investor Warren Buffett, to its board of directors.

Oil falls on U.S. crude stock rise, Venezuela warning

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday ahead of an expected build in U.S. crude oil stocks and on Venezuelan comments that the oil market remains oversupplied by 10 percent.

Allergan to buy Tobira in push for NASH treatments

(Reuters) - Allergan Plc said it would buy Tobira Therapeutics Inc in a deal worth up to $1.7 billion, to gain access to its experimental therapies for a fatty liver disease called NASH.

Moscow Denies Russian, Syrian Planes Struck Aleppo Aid Convoy

Just two days after US-coalition forces "mistakenly" attacked a Syrian army post, killing 62 and shortly after the latest Syrian ceasefire ended, a UN aid convoy near Aleppo was struck on Monday allegedly killing 12 people, according to a London-based (and UK-funded) war monitor.

VIDEO: Footage by @SyriaCivilDef at the warehouse in Aleppo, Syria where a UN aid convoy was hit by airstrikes tonight. pic.twitter.com/h32f280aMf

— Conflict News (@Conflicts) September 19, 2016

While the United Nations confirmed the convoy was hit, it gave no details on who carried out the attack or how many died as world leaders converged on New York for their annual U.N. gathering under the shadow of fresh violence in the Syrian civil war. However, in an attempt to shift the public's focus on "Russian and Syrian aggression", the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group, the same group which three years ago falsely accused the Assad regime of launching a chemical weapon attack that was "caught" on a YouTube clip, said the attacks were carried out by either Syrian or Russian aircraft.

The US promptly condemned the "Russian attack". Cited by Reuters, a senior Obama admin official said that "we don't know if it can be salvaged," referring to the effort by the United States and Russia, which back opposite sides in the conflict. "At this point the Russians have to demonstrate very quickly their seriousness of purpose because otherwise there will be nothi ...

A Breakdown Here In This Sector Would Not Be Healthy

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The post-2009 bull market in drug stocks is currently being threatened.

In the midst of the selling pressure last week, we mentioned that several indices across the equity markets were seeing key trendlines being tested. This was the case from style segments like small and mid-caps, to international markets, such as Europe. It is also true on the sector level, as we see in today's Chart Of The Day focusing on the drug sector.

Specifically, we note that the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index (symbol, DRG) is nearing a test of its post-2009 Up trendline (using a log scale).

image

As the chart shows, the Up trendline in question originates at the lows in 2009 and connects the lows in August-November 2011 as well as the lows this year, most notably in February and June. Naturally, pharma bulls would like to see prices hold above this trendline, which presently sits near the 510 level. Last week's lows in the DRG came at 512-513 so a test of those lows would see the index squarely testing this trendline.

A break below this trendline (that is not immediately recovered) could open up further significant downside. One level below that could be targeted upon a break is the low set back in February around 475, or roughly a 7% drop. Below there, the 450′s area could provide potentially significant support in the form of the ...

Frontrunning: September 20



How Police Tracked Down Bombing Suspect Suspect Ahmad Khan Rahami (WSJ)

Dollar Falls With Treasuries Amid Fed, BOJ Countdown; Oil Rises (BBG)

Fed again poised to cut longer-run interest rate forecast (Reuters)

Pipeline Break Lights a Fire Under Gasoline Prices Across Southeast (WSJ)

U.S. investigators seek motive for NY, NJ weekend attacks (Reuters)

Carrie Tolstedt: In the Eye of the Wells Fargo Storm (WSJ)

Skeptical of Russia, Clinton seen going toe-to-toe with Putin (Reuters)

Star Names Struggle as Smaller Funds Make Hay (WSJ)

Deutsche Bank Said to Securitize Loans to Offload Risk (BBG)

Oklahoma police release video of officer shooting unarmed black man (Reuters)

U.K. Told It Has Zero Chance of Having Brexit Cake and Eating It (BBG< ...

Wells CEO To Tell American People He Is "Deeply Sorry" And "Accepts Full Responsibility", But Won't Resign

Today at 10am, the US public will be treated to the latest Congressional kangaroo court, when Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf will tell the Senate Banking Committee that he is "deeply sorry", and accepts "full responsibility" for unethical sales practices in its retail banking business while apologizing for "not doing more sooner" to address the cause of such behavior.

That said, he will not resign, nor will he propose clawing back any of his pay or that of "sandbagger"-in-chief Carrie Tolstedt's $125 million parting cash award, as some Democratic senators have suggested. What Stumpf will do, according to his prepared remarks to be delivered today, Stumpf will say there was "no orchestrated effort or scheme" by the bank to encourage problematic sales practices.

"I am deeply sorry that we failed to fulfill our responsibility to our customers, to our team members and to the American public," Stumpf said in the prepared remarks. "I accept full responsibility for all unethical sales practices in our retail banking business. I am fully committed to doing everything possible to fix this issue, strengthen our culture and take the necessary actions to restore our customers' trust."

Stumpf is scheduled to deliver the testimony two weeks after popular anger erupted at the bank which agreed to pay a $185 million fine after regulators found it had opened about two million deposit and credit-card accounts without customers' consent. Wells Fargo said it fired 5,300 employees over the sales practices during a five-year period ended in March of this year. A House panel is als ...

Multinational Tax Avoidance Crackdown Goes Far Beyond Apple

Unlike the European Commission's battle with Apple, the OECD's clampdown on tax dodging could change the face of corporate taxation.

China Capital Outflows Bubble Below the Surface

Higher U.S. rates and a stronger dollar are powerful attractive forces for Chinese capital. China's outflow problems haven't gone away.

Deep Dive: How to buy low and sell really high in the stock market

The Jensen Quality Growth Fund's secret: It rarely sells its holdings, writes Phil van Doorn.

The Margin: Donald Trump Jr. compares refugees to death-dealing Skittles, sparks a storm

Donald Trump Jr.'s Syrian-refugee candy-analogy has gone down with a thud on social media. Wrigley, the owner of Skittles, offered up the PR save of the day in its well-thought out response.

Capitol Report: Clinton-Trump race tightens in Florida | Soros investing $500 million for refugees

Donald Trump sticks by Chris Christie after bridge-trial revelations; the presidential race tightens in Florida; George Soros invests $500 million for refugees; and more.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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