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19Sep2016 Market Update: US Market Indexes In The Green, But Sinking Along With Commodities, Short-Term Indicator Fractionally Bullish And Weakening

Written by Gary

Wall Street has moved lower off the morning session highs, but remaining in the green (SPY + 0.2%) on moderate volatility. Crude prices, the US dollar and gold are all showing weakness by melting off their morning highs, interesting and not very reassuring og a continuing bull market.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The Bovespa is up 0.53% while the S&P 500 gains 0.11%. The IPC is off 0.31%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 64%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear

43%

Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 63%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-40.43

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
81%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 67%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 70%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

16.86

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,572

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

S&P, Dow lifted by financials; Fed in focus

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow rose on Monday afternoon, lifted by financial stocks, a day before the Federal Reserve holds a meeting to discuss interest rates.

For Yellen, a September Fed surprise could close confidence gap

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Market volatility is low, U.S. census data shows income gains have reached the middle class, and workers are clawing back a larger share of national income. For now, at least, no international risk stands out and inflation may even be picking up.

Samsung says China phone fire caused by external heat

SEOUL/BEIJING (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co Ltd said on Monday a Galaxy Note 7 phone a Chinese user claimed caught on fire was damaged by external heating, seeking to assure customers in the world's top smartphone market the devices being sold there are safe.

U.S. home builder sentiment index highest in 11 months

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A private gauge on U.S. home builder sentiment unexpectedly rose in September to its strongest level in 11 months, prompted by renewed interest in home purchases following a summer lull.

Venezuela says OPEC, non-OPEC oil stabilizing deal close

MARGARITA ISLAND, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Sunday that OPEC and non-OPEC countries were close to reaching a deal to stabilize oil markets and that he aimed for a deal to be announced this month.

Tesla says lawsuits could delay SolarCity deal

(Reuters) - Elon Musk-led Tesla Motor Inc said on Monday its proposed acquisition of SolarCity Corp could be delayed due to shareholder lawsuits challenging the deal.

Britain's May to meet Goldman, Amazon, IBM to discuss post-Brexit investment

NEW YORK (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May will meet business chiefs from firms including Goldman Sachs , IBM and Amazon on Monday in an attempt to reassure investors after her country's shock vote to leave the European Union.

Exclusive: Google may face over $400 million Indonesia tax bill for 2015 - government official

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia plans to pursue Alphabet Inc's Google for five years of back taxes, and the search giant could face a bill of more than $400 million for 2015 alone if it is found to have avoided payments, a senior tax official said.

Ernst & Young settles charges that two ex-auditors got 'too close' to clients

(Reuters) - Accounting firm Ernst & Young will pay $9.3 million to settle charges that two of its former auditors got "too close to clients on a personal level" and broke rules aimed at ensuring reviews were impartial, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Monday.

NY Bomber Rahami's Family Sued NJ Police In 2011 Due To "Anti-Muslim Harassment"

The family of New York and New Jersey bomber, Ahmad Rahami, filed a federal lawsuit against "The City of Elizabeth" and the "Elizabeth Police Department" in April 2011 claiming they were victims of anti-Muslim harassment.

The complaint alleges that, among other things, after their First American Fried Chicken restaurant opened in 2002, they became the victims of racial discrimination from the Elizabeth Police Department which attempted on multiple occasions to shut their restaurant down early despite an exemption allowing them to operate beyond 10pm.

Lawsuit

During one confrontation with police, two of the restaurant's operators, Mohammad K. Rahami, Jr. and Mohammad Q. Rahami, were arrested after they became upset and tried to record their conversation with officers.

Lawsuit

The complaint also alleged discrimination against a local Elizabeth resident, James Dean Mcdermott, who was accused of referring to the Rahami family using racial slurs.

Lawsuit

The full 2011 lawsuit can be viewed below:

Buy-The-F**king-Terror-Attack Rally Falters On Exploding iPhone Chatter

Thanks to overnight exuberance in oil (via Venezuela) and the seemingly ubiquitous buying that occurs after every terror attack (see Paris for the best example), US equities have retreated back into the red - led by NASDAQ (AAPL batteries' exloding rumors) - as quad-witching shenanigans have given way to pre-Fed anxiety (despite a 9% chance of a rate hike this week)...

AAPL is fading on JPM's lack of exuberance and on rumors of exploding iPhone 7 batteries. Moments ago RANsquawk sources note talk of reports doing the rounds that batteries in the latest iPhone 7 have reportedly been exploding - unconfirmed.

Dragging the Nasdaq lower:

And VIX spiked:

And not helped by the plunge in September rate hike odds as reality bites that bad news (data) is not good news at all:

Post-Brexit Cash Hoarding Is "Worrying Signal" For UK Economy

Critics warn that "the Monetary Policy Committee made a serious policy error in August when it cut rates and restarted QE," according to Pantheon's Samuel Tombs, as the massive spike in UK narrow money-supply - which we first noted here - reflects "uncertainty, not income growth." Pantheon warns that they doubt the biggest surge in cash-hoarding since Lehman "signals that an economic renaissance is on the way. On the contrary, the pick-up in the desire of households and firms to hold money, as opposed to other assets, is a worrying signal."

On the heels of Japan, Switzerland, and Germany, the UK's biggest surge in cash-hoarding since Lehman has been suggested by some as sign - along with better than expected economic data - that the British economy is faring well. However, as we noted previously, this is almost certainly wrong and Pantheon agrees...

"As our chart below shows, narrow money accelerated as the economy entered recession in 2008. Growth in narrow money also picked up at the turn of the millennium, when fears abounded that electronic payment systems would stop working because of the "Y2K" bug. In short, uncertainty, not income growth, drives money demand.

"It is unlikely to be a coincidence that strong money growth has occurred alongside a collapse in business and consumer confidence and pessimism about the U.K.'s economic outlook since the Brexit vote in June. Note that the pick-up in narrow money growth has tracked ...

Slowly... Then All At Once

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

The staggering incoherence of the election campaign only mirrors the shocking incapacity of the American public, from top to bottom, to process the tendings of our time. The chief tending is permanent worldwide economic contraction. Having hit the resource wall, especially of affordable oil, the global techno-industrial economy has sucked a valve in its engine.

For sure there are ways for human beings to inhabit this planet, perhaps in a civilized mode, but not at the gigantic scale of the current economic regime. The fate of this order has nothing to do with our wishes or preferences. It's going down whether we like it or not because it was such a violent anomaly in world history and the salient question is: how do we manage our journey to a new disposition of things. Neither Trump or Clinton show that they have a clue about the situation.

The quandary I describe is often labeled the end of growth. The semantic impact of this phrase tends to paralyze even well-educated minds, most particularly the eminent econ professors, the Yale lawyers-turned-politicos, the Wall Street Journal editors, the corporate poobahs of the "C-Suites," the hedge fund maverick-geniuses, and the bureaucratic errand boys (and girls) of Washington. In the absence of this "growth," as defined by the employment and productivity statistics extruded like poisoned bratwursts from the sausage grinders of government agencies, this elite can see only the yawning abyss. The poverty of imagination among our elites is really something to behold.

As is usually the case with troubled, over-ripe societies, these elites have begun to resort to magic to prop up failing living arrangements. This is why the Federal Reserve, once an obscure ins ...

The Market Gets Caught in a Squeeze Play

Rising interest rates overseas and new money-market regulations could put bond investors in difficult straits.

Why Global Rule Makers See Risks In European Banks

Sophisticated models that minimize capital requirements are set to face costly restrictions.

The Mystery Behind Mobile-Game Hits

Mobile-game megahits like "Pokémon Go" make investors go wild, but the behavior is based on a wide range of revenue assumptions.

Market Snapshot: Stocks pare gains as oil rallies, home-builder confidence jumps

U.S. stocks advance Monday, with the Dow industrials adding more than 100 points, boosted by an oil rally and a report showing a surge in home-builder confidence.

The Ratings Game: Under Armour expands beyond athleisure with new premium line

Under Armour jumps into luxury fashion with a sportswear line aimed at millennials called UAS.

Sarepta's controversial Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug was contested right up to approval

One final twist was "highly unusual," the FDA's top leader said.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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