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12Sep2016 Market Update: US Markets Trading Higher, Crude Prices Back Up, Gold And US Dollar Very Volatile, Market Reversal Possible

Written by Gary

US markets moved into the green as predicted and are currently trading sideways (SPY +0.8%) on moderate volume. Current economic conditions warrant a "serious discussion" of whether to raise interest rates at next week's Fed meeting, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said today in remarks that may raise the likelihood of Fed action.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The S&P 500 is up 0.86% while the Bovespa gains 0.20%. The IPC is off 0.77%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 65%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear

47%

Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 67%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-47.36

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
80%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 70%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 74
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

16.87

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.94
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,643

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street gains as September rate hike jitters ease

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Monday after two Federal Reserve officials struck a less hawkish tone on interest rate hikes, quelling some investor fears about a move as early as next week.

OPEC points to larger 2017 oil surplus as rivals keep pumping

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC raised its forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries in 2017 as new fields come online and U.S. shale drillers prove more resilient than expected to cheap crude, pointing to a larger surplus in the market next year.

Global bonds and stocks lashed by policy rethink, talk of turning point

TOKYO/HONG KONG/LONDON (Reuters) - A sudden surge in government borrowing rates across the world has jarred global markets, reflecting mounting investor anxiety that central banks have run out of both tools and ideas to stimulate economies on their own.

Fed's Lockhart: 'Serious discussion' over rate rise warranted

ATLANTA (Reuters) - Current economic conditions warrant a "serious discussion" of whether to raise interest rates at next week's Fed meeting, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said on Monday in remarks that may raise the likelihood of Fed action.

Samsung, LG sued over U.S. employee recruiting policies

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and LG Electronics were accused of agreeing to avoid poaching each other's U.S. employees, according to a U.S. civil lawsuit filed last week.

Slumping fertilizer majors Potash, Agrium to merge if regulators approve

(Reuters) - Canada's Agrium Inc and Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc agreed to merge to create the world's largest fertilizer company and navigate a severe industry slump, assuming the deal can first overcome close regulatory scrutiny.

U.S. inflation expectations rebound in August: NY Fed survey

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two measures of U.S. inflation expectations rebounded last month, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey that may come as a relief to central bankers worried about price measures stuck at low levels.

JPMorgan whistleblower case revived by U.S. appeals court

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A federal appeals court on Monday revived a former JPMorgan Chase & Co private banker's whistleblower lawsuit accusing the bank of firing her in retaliation for warning that an Israeli client might be committing fraud.

Facebook says will learn from mistake over Vietnam photo

OSLO (Reuters) - Facebook Inc will learn from a mistake it made by deleting a historic Vietnam War photo of a naked girl fleeing a napalm attack, the company's chief operating officer said.

Harvard PhD Explains How Google Search Bias Could "Shift 3 Million Votes" In Upcoming Election

Published exclusively for Sputnik by Dr. Robert Epstein, a Senior Research Psychologist at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology, in Vista, California.

In this exclusive report, distinguished research psychologist Robert Epstein explains the new study and reviews evidence that Google's search suggestions are biased in favor of Hillary Clinton. He estimates that biased search suggestions might be able to shift as many as 3 million votes in the upcoming presidential election in the US.

Biased search rankings can swing votes and alter opinions, and a new study shows that Google's autocomplete can too.

A scientific study I published last year showed that search rankings favoring one candidate can quickly convince undecided voters to vote for that candidate — as many as 80 percent of voters in some demographic groups. My latest research shows that a search engine could also shift votes and change opinions with another powerful tool: autocomplete.

Because of recent claims that Google has been deliberately tinkering with search suggestions to make Hillary Clinton look good, this is probably a good time both to examine those claims and to look at my new research. As you will see, there is some cause for concern here.

In June of this year, Sourcefed released a video claiming that Google's search suggestions — often called "autocomplete" suggestions — were biased in favor of Mrs. Clinton. The video quickly went viral: the full 7-minute version has now been viewed more than a million times on YouTube, and an abridged 3-minute version has been viewed more than 25 ...

Deustche Bank and the Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look at the Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs

Following up on Deutsche Bank as Ground Zero?, I'd like to focus on the deteriorating credit metrics at Germany's largest bank. To be absolutely honest, an educatied consumer is the at odds with the bank's other stakeholders in this situation. Educated consumers, particularly those seeking safe, secure bank accounts and lending faciilities should be moving out of Deutshe bank right now. DB is far from safe and secure, particularly in relation to other destiniations. Remember, bank bail-ins are EU law now. European regulatory authorities can force these failing institutions to cancel or severely dilute shareholder equity or to cancel, write-down or convert unsecured liabilities to equity. Such regulatory action is referred to as a "bail-in." Bank depositors (checking, savings, demand accounts) are investors as well, in the form of unsecured creditors.

Most depositors still don't realize this (despite Icelandic bank depositors getting smashed). Depositors are the largest, one of the cheapest, and currently the most stable form of bank financing.

Bond Markets Just Waking Up to Their Own Craziness

Bond markets are wobbling, but it is the risk-free government-bond market that looks most fragile of all.

Bank of Japan Has Enlarged Target in Corporate Bonds

Japan's corporate bond market is taking off just in time for the Bank of Japan to play an even bigger role in it.

Why an Obscure Change in Market Indexes Will Add to the Turmoil This Week

The spinning off of real-estate investment trusts from the financial sector comes at time when the prospects for other financial stocks are looking better.

Brexit set to hurt U.K. economy by £44 billion, trade group says

The U.K. economy could dodge a recession in the wake of the Brexit vote, but the British Chamber of Commerce foresees the economy's value shrinking by billions of pounds through 2018.

Capitol Report: Trump Foundation $20,000 portrait purchase gives new meaning to art of the deal

Talk about the art of the deal: The charity of Donald Trump once bought a 6-foot painting of the wealthy businessman for $20,000 and supposedly put it at one of his golf courses.

The Tell: The stock-market rout drove the S&P 500, Dow below a key level

Stocks have plunged below their 50-day moving averages, precipitated by fears that the Federal Reserve could finally pull the trigger on raising rates after a nearly 10-month hiatus.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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