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01Sep2016 Market Update: Wall Street Flat, Crude Prices Remain Weak And A Further Drop Is Expected, Indicators Neutral

Written by Gary

US major indexes remain in the red, flat, but off the morning lows (SPY -0.1%). Crude prices have slipped again (WTI 43.42), US dollar fallen to the mid 95's and gold rising to 1317. Volume remains anemic, indicators neutral to bullish for the remainder of the session.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are lower today with shares in Brazil off the most. The Bovespa is down 0.55% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is off 0.11% and Mexico's IPC is lower by 0.08%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 71%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 59%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 66%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -29.75
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
87%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 70%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 76%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 15.61
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 80.68
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,760

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street lower as weak data dents optimism on economy

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow were slightly lower on Thursday, after sluggish monthly factory activity data dented optimism about the economy, even as investors count down to a crucial jobs report on Friday.

IMF's Lagarde says likely to cut growth outlook as trade wanes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the institution will likely downgrade its 2016 global growth forecast again as economic prospects are dimmed by weak demand, flagging trade and investment and growing inequality.

Low rates can't resolve long-term labor problem: Fed's Mester

LEXINGTON, KY (Reuters) - Keeping interest rates low in the United States will likely do little to resolve deep-set problems in the country's labor market, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Thursday.

Wal-Mart to cut 7,000 U.S. store back-office jobs: report

(Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc will cut about 7,000 back-office jobs, mostly in accounting and invoicing positions at its stores around the country, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

Exclusive: U.S. set to approve sales of Boeing fighters to Qatar, Kuwait, sources say

DOHA/BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States is poised to sell $7 billion worth of Boeing Co fighter jets to Qatar and Kuwait after years of delays, and it may start notifying U.S. lawmakers as early as next week, four U.S.- and Gulf-based sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

U.S. factory activity contracts in August; layoffs remain low

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. factory activity contracted in August for the first time in six months as new orders and production tumbled, but a low level of layoffs continued to point to a pickup in economic growth in the third quarter.

Shell becomes first oil company to join Mexico's hedging program: Bloomberg

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc participated in Mexico's oil hedging program for 2017, the first time an oil company has taken part in the world's large commodities hedging program, according to Bloomberg, citing four people with knowledge of the matter.

EU ruling on Apple's Irish tax is 'total political crap': CEO

DUBLIN/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Apple's Chief Executive Tim Cook described an EU ruling that it must pay a huge tax bill to Ireland as "total political crap", but France joined Germany on Thursday in backing Brussels as transatlantic tensions grow.

IMF urges G20 leaders to boost demand, make case for trade

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund called on Thursday for G20 leaders to take much stronger action to boost demand, revive flagging trade, make long-delayed structural reforms to their economies and share growth more broadly.

"Rick Astley" Market Rips Back Into Green

Because... The Fed is "never gonna let you down" or "desert you"...

Green...because what do you do when faced with the biggest plunge in construction spending since th elast recessioon and a collapse in Manufacturing ISM?

Thanks to VIX...

As S&P bounced off Twilight Zone lows...

Can You Trust US Economic Data? Eight "Out Of The Box" Investment Insights

Can You Trust US Economic Data? Eight "Out Of The Box" Investment Insights Written by Peter Diekmeyer

This morning, Canada released GDP data which showed the economy shrank by 1.6% on an annualized quarter-over-quarter basis during Q2. While economists forecast a 1.5% drop, those "proj ...

Original Recipe? $55 Million In Cocaine Discovered At French Coca-Cola Plant

Submitted by S.M.Gibson via TheAntiMedia.org,

Hundreds of kilos of cocaine were found in a Coca-Cola plant in France last Friday, making the seizure of the drug one of the largest ever on French soil.

French officials say the cocaine was discovered in backpacks among a shipment of orange juice concentrate that originated in Costa Rica. The 370 kg of literal coke uncovered at the factory is reported to have a street value of 50 million Euros ($55m) and was referred to as a "very bad surprise" by a local prosecutor.

Authorities are currently unaware of who was behind the cocaine, but an investigation is now underway in Signes, a village in the south of France. Employees of the plant have already been ruled out as suspects.

"The first elements of the investigation have shown that employees are in no way involved," according to Jean-Denis Malgras, the regional president of Coca-Cola.

Coca-Cola was originally called Pemberton's French Wine Coca and contained a mixture of Peruvian coca leaves, kola nut, damiana, and cocaethylene (cocaine mixed with alcohol). Druggist John Stith Pemberton invented his French Wine Coca in Atlanta, Georgia, and it became very popular across the southeastern United States.

The Coc ...

A ¥9 Trillion Hole Emerges Inside The BOJ's Balance Sheet: "It's A Pretty Dangerous Situation"

When it comes to accounting conventions, the Fed and the BOJ differ in one major way: unlike the Federal Reserve, the BOJ counts its bond holdings at the purchase price, minus amortization costs. In the old days before NIRP this wasn't an issue because with positive yields, it meant that with time, the value of any central bank bond purchases would accrete through maturity and never lead to a booked loss; however under NIRP, it means that the BOJ is purchasing hundreds of billions in bonds at prices that are so high they guarantee a loss, meaning that by maturity the central banks will face a cumulative loss on the face value of recent bond purchases.

From a purely accounting standpoint, it means that a gap has opened on the BOJ's balance sheet, representing the difference between the book and face value of the central bank's monetizations.

How big is the gap? According to Bloomberg as of August, the delta between the balance sheet and face value has ballooned to some 8.7 trillion yen, or $84 billion.

That "gap" is the difference between the 326.7 trillion yen in BOJ bond purchases at face value, and where they are marked on the balance sheet in August, or 335.4 trillion yen. That gap is 42% bigger than before the introduction of negative rates in January, and rapidly rising. At the end of the 2015 fiscal year on March 31, the gap between the two valuations was 6.4 trillion yen and the BOJ wrote down 874 billion ye ...

Has U.K. Gone From Brexit Gloom to Boom?

The Bank of England faces another Brexit surprise: good economic news.

Don't Give Up Just Yet on Brexit Property Bargains

Bargain-hunters frustrated by the largely orderly post-Brexit commercial property market in the U.K. should return in two or three years.

China Can't Break Free From the Almighty Dollar

Trading of the yuan has increased from three years ago, but it is almost exclusively with the U.S. dollar.

August 2016 ISM Manufacturing Survey Returns to Contraction

Written by Steven Hansen

The ISM Manufacturing survey slipped slightly into contraction after five month in expansion. The key internals declined and are in contraction. The PMI manufacturing Index, also released today, is in positive territory and marginally declined.

Deep Dive: REITs, boasting big outperformance, have earned their own sector

Real estate investment trusts now will stand on their own, apart from financial companies, in the S&P 500 Index, says Phil van Doorn.

London Markets: FTSE 100 flips lower, hurt by sterling's surge

U.K. stocks are down, with many falling victim to a surge in the pound after U.K. manufacturing data surprised investors with an unexpectedly strong reading.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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