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15Aug2016 Market Update: US Markets Fractionally Higher, WTI Crude Climbs Higher As US Dollar Trends Down, Afternoon Session Weakness Expected On Low Volume

Written by Gary

US markets opened higher and have traded sideways near the session highs with the DOW up moderately 71 points. The Fed's gauge of manufacturing activity in the region declined in August. The gauge fell to a negative reading of -2.41 from a positive reading of 0.55 in July. Wall Street had anticipated an increase to 2.50. Readings above 0 point to expansion, while those below indicate contraction. Indicators are bullish to neutral.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 1.14% while Mexico's IPC is up 1.06% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.38%.

If ... the big if ...

If the Transportation Index (updated below), confirms a Head & Shoulder pattern, then the downside would be about 760 points from where it ended last Friday. If it doesn't experience the pattern and moves up instead, the upside resistance level to break above would be at 8149.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 71%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 75%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 66%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -11.53
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
88%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 70%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 76%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 15.15
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 82.00
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,822

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Stocks at record highs as oil jumps

(Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes were trading at all-time highs on Monday, building on the record-setting rally of the past few weeks, as oil prices jumped.

Oil extends rally to five-week highs on talk of producer action

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices hit five-week highs on Monday, gaining about 10 percent in a three-day rally as speculation intensified over potential producer action to support prices amid a crude glut.

Tesla removes 'autopilot' from China website after Beijing crash

SHANGHAI/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Tesla removed the word "autopilot" and a Chinese term for "self-driving" from its China website after a driver in Beijing who crashed in "autopilot" mode complained that the car maker overplayed the function's capability and misled buyers.

Japan's economy stalls in April-June, casts doubts on Abe's policies

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economic growth ground to a halt in April-June as weak exports and shaky domestic demand prompted companies to cut spending, putting fresh pressure on premier Shinzo Abe to come up with policies that will produce more sustainable growth.

'Grumpy hold-outs' could sink Bitfinex recovery plan after Bitcoin theft

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Crypto-currency exchange Bitfinex's plan to impose losses on all its trading clients for the theft by hackers of $72 million in Bitcoin rests on two flawed pillars, according to lawyers.

Lack of investment, payment delays hamper Venezuela oil output

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela, which holds the world's largest crude reserves, is on track to suffer its steepest annual oil output drop in 14 years as it suffers the effects of an economic crisis and years of under investment and mismanagement, according to data seen by Reuters and interviews with company sources and workers.

RBS says main office would move if Scotland were independent: BBC

EDINBURGH (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Scotland would move its main office from Scotland if the nation were to split from the UK after Britain's vote to leave the European Union, although moving domicile would not mean major job losses, the head of RBS has said.

Volkswagen plant to cut working hours at Passat plant due to seat supply problem

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen plans to reduce working hours at a German plant making Passat cars because of problems with supplies from its in-house seat manufacturer Sitech.

NYSE sees double-digit Asian IPOs through 2017, with focus on tech

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) sees technology companies driving a revival in new Asian listings and expects double-digit IPOs through the end of 2017 from the region, the exchange's global head of capital markets said in an interview.

Sweden: Report "Conclusions Are Frightening" Amid Summer Inferno Of Sexual Assaults

Submitted by Ingrid Carlqvist via The Gatestone Institute,

Almost all the perpetrators of sexual assaults who attacked in groups and who have been apprehended, are citizens of Afghanistan, Eritrea and Somalia -- three of the four largest immigrant groups in Sweden who fall into the category of "unaccompanied refugee children."

A few days later, it turned out that many of the perpetrators who sexually assaulted women at the "Putte i parken" music festival in Karlstad wore the "Don't grope" bracelet.

Many people were therefore aghast to learn that the organizers of the Trästocksfestivalen music festival in Skellefteå had decided to arrange free bus rides to the festival for the local "unaccompanied refugee children." They claimed they were "proud to be the first music festival in Sweden that encourages a significant increase of newly arrived migrants in the audience." By the time the Trästocksfestivalen ended, the police counted twelve reported sexual assaults.

Apparently, Swedish girls and women should learn to live with being groped and raped -- or leave the public space altogether. The latter seems quite in line with what Islamic sharia law prescribes.

In the wake of the New Year's Eve attacks in Cologne, Germany, news broke in Sweden that a large number of sexual assaults against girls and women had occurred at the music festival "We Are Sthlm" [short for Stockholm] in both 2014 and 2015, but had been covered up by both the police and the media. The National Police Commissioner, Dan Eliasson, immediately launched an investigation to find out the ...

With $128 Billion In Equity Outflows, Barclays Asks "Who's Buying Stocks" And Gives An Answer

It has been one of the greater paradoxes of the record S&P rally from the February lows: how has the market continued to rise even with unprecedented outflows? In other words, "Who's buying equities?"

Overnight, Barclay's chief equity strategist Keith Parker asks that very question, pointing out that global equities have continued to rally despite $128bn of outflows from equity funds since mid-March. His answer: futures buying (which has traditionally been associated with central bank intervention), whiuh since March ($60bn notional) has surpassed the amount of buying between October 2011 and May 2013,and which together with short-covering has more than offset the outflows.

He notes that with that dramatic shift in positioning basically done, retail and foreign investors are the incremental buyers/sellers of equities; S&P 500 returns have been 49% correlated with shifts in their combined ownership over the last 20 years. Active equity MFs are selling amid large retail redemptions while foreign investors are also selling US equities.

In other words, it may be all up to retail now:

"A turn in retail/foreign sentiment and a resumption of equity inflows would get markets back to more of a grind since the positioning-driven bounce has played out, but still elevated active manager positioning leaves the market vulnerable to risks."

So, to better assess the path for equities and identify potential opportunities, Barclays seeks to better understand the buying dynamics ac ...

The Federal Reserve Takes The Blame For This Stock Market Bubble (Video)

By EconMatters

The Big Banks have been regulated to the point of absurdity after the 2008 financial crisis, and when the financial markets crash this time the public will need a new entity to blame. There is nothing but air under stocks right now, very dangerous for investors right here!

EconMatters All Rights Reserved

Bank-Bond Investors Can't Be Pampered

Some changes to protect coupon payments on junior debt make sense but regulators must ensure the real risks remain apparent.

Google's Alphabet Shift Still Clicks

The internet giant has grown bigger and more profitable in the year since the shakeup. Alphabet hired more than 9,000 new employees in the past year and has promised a more dutiful eye on spending.

Where to Find a Safer Version of the Search for Yield

The eurozone's more creditworthy economies are winning bond-market favor, showing investors won't necessarily go to extremes for yield.

The Ratings Game: Valeant upgraded by Mizuho: 'We know when to fold 'em'

Company's changed debt agreements 'debunked' Mizuho's short thesis.

The Fed: Fed's Williams says inflation target should be increased

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said the Fed should consider setting a higher inflation target to give the central bank more room to maneuver in a low interest-rate world.

These are the 20 hotels in 10 states that were hacked, according to HEI

HEI Hotels and Resorts identified 20 hotels in 10 states and Washington, D.C. that were hacked, in which customers' payment card information may have been affected.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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