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10Aug2016 Market Update: US Markets Down Fractionally, Crude Down 2%, Gold Takes A Nose Dive, Short-Term Indicators Turning Bearish

Written by Gary

US major indexes have slipped into the red marginally (SPY - 0.2%) as WTI crude fell from the mid 43's to the high 41's. Markets appear to be confused as Crude prices fall, so does the US dollar and gold setting up a conundrum of doubt in investors minds. Indicators today are bearish.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The IPC is higher by 0.14%, while the Bovespa is leading the S&P 500 lower. They are down 1.60% and 0.28% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 76%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 77%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 66%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -3.98
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
84%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 70%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 75%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 15.09
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 81.27
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,786

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Weak oil prices pull Wall Street away from record levels

(Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes retreated from record levels as a drop in oil prices pressured energy stocks.

Oil down 2 percent as U.S. crude build offsets gasoline draw

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 2 percent on Wednesday after the second-biggest weekly draw in U.S. gasoline this summer was countered by an unseasonal growth in crude stockpiles.

Wall Street bonuses expected to decline for bankers, traders: report

(Reuters) - Wall Street bonuses are expected to decline this year for both bankers and traders, compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates Inc. said on Wednesday.

U.S. jobs openings increase in June, layoffs near two-year low

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job openings increased in June and layoffs dropped to their lowest in nearly two years as labor market conditions tightened further, according a government report on Wednesday.

Boeing may not raise 787 production to 14 a month, will follow market: CFO

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Boeing Co may not raise production of its 787 Dreamliner jet to 14 a month but will generate more cash even if it does not lift output from the current rate of 12 a month, Chief Financial Officer Greg Smith said on Wednesday.

Exclusive: ACT shakes up security unit, plans audit after cheating reports

LONDON/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - ACT Inc, maker of America's most popular university entrance exam, is laying off its head of test security and plans to audit nearly 200 education centers after Reuters detailed widespread cheating in an ACT-owned college-prep program for international students.

Wendy's comparable sales miss as fewer diners eat out

(Reuters) - Burger chain Wendy's Co reported lower-than-expected quarterly comparable sales on Wednesday as a fall in grocery prices encouraged more diners to eat at home, sending the company's shares down as much as 8 percent.

Money laundering rule on prepaid cards stalled after industry pushback

NEW YORK/ST. LOUIS, AUGUST 10 (Reuters) - In 2011, amid a crackdown on international money laundering, the U.S. Treasury Department tried to close a loophole that authorities said allows drug cartels to move bulk cash across borders on gift and other prepaid cards.

Auto safety chief hits America's hot roads to push recall repairs

MIAMI (Reuters) - Under a blazing sun in a Florida college parking lot, employees of the U.S. government's auto safety regulator, Toyota Motor Corp and a tire industry trade group checked vehicles for recall notices, under-inflated tires and improperly installed child safety seats.

Vietnam Secretly Moves israeli Rocket Launchers To Disputed Islands To Counter China

While over the last several months, tensions over the South China Sea territorial dispute have mostly focused on the diplomatic war of words between China and the US, Reuters reports that in a move that is likely to substantially "raise tensions with Beijing", Vietnam has secretly fortified several of its islands in the disputed territory with Israeli-made EXTRA mobile rocket launchers 'capable of striking China's runways and military installations across the vital trade route."

The launchers have been hidden from aerial surveillance and they have yet to be armed, but could be made operational with rocket artillery rounds within two or three days, Reuters notes adding that intelligence shows Hanoi has shipped the launchers from the Vietnamese mainland into position on five bases in the Spratly islands in recent months

The move, which analysts say "is the most significant defensive move Vietnam has made on its holdings in the South China Sea in decades", is designed to counter China's build-up on its seven reclaimed islands in the Spratlys archipelago. Vietnam's military strategists fear the building runways, radars and other military installations on those holdings have left Vietnam's southern and island defenses increasingly vulnerable.

Vietnam's Deputy Defence Minister, Senior Lieutenant-General Nguyen Chi Vinh, told Reuters that it has reserved the right to take any such measures. "It is within our legitimate right to self-defense to move any of our weapons to any area at any time within our sovereign territory," he said.

Hanoi is "discretely" putting the launchers in place as it expected tensions to rise in the wake of the landmark international court ruling against China in an arbitration case brought by the Philippines, foreign envoys said. The ruling last month, stridently ...

Did US Consumers Finally Tap Out? BofA Internal Card Data Shows Significant July Spending Slowdown

Ahead of this Friday's retail sales report, which bulls are hoping will show a continuation of the strong spending trends revealed in last month's data, Bank of America is once again the bearer of bad news.

As BofA reports in a note released this morning, according to the bank's internal aggregated credit and debit card data, consumer spending slowed in July, with retail sales ex-autos down 0.3% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis. This follows the flat pace in June for retail sales ex-autos. As chief economist Michelle Meyer points out, "we think the recent weakening in consumer spending is largely a cooling down after the exceptionally strong gains from March through May (Chart 1).

Looking at the full year, BofA finds that retail sales ex-autos are only up 0.7% yoy, and points out that Census Bureau data have closely followed the trend in the BAC data, suggesting that the market should prepare for either a downward revision to the June data and/or disappointing July figures: "In our view, this sets up for a softer Census Bureau retail sales report on Friday - we would not be surprised to see either disappointing July sales and/or a downward revision to June."

It's not all bad news: based on the BAC card data, BofA found that spending on staples slowed over the course of last year with a slight recovery this year.



The S&P consumer staples index showed a similar slowing over last year, but a somewhat faster recovery than the card data.

This is in contrast to the data on discretionary ...

France Moves To De-Radicalize Its Mosques

Submitted by Johanna Markind via The Gatestone Institute,

The problem is not that foreign charities directly subsidize jihadi activities, but that they promote a highly aggressive ideology with a political agenda, whose followers are more likely to take the next step into violent action.

Fighting terrorism is not just the responsibility of the government, the prime minister said, but rather all of society needs to get involved.

France is taking steps to de-radicalize its mosques in the hopes of preventing the radicalization of its Muslim community.

Since December, the French government, acting under expanded emergency powers, has shut down twenty mosques for preaching Salafism, a strict and highly politicized Sunni interpretation of Islam. Groups such as ISIS adhere to Salafism. About 120 of France's 2,500 mosques and prayer halls are considered Salafist.

A little background: the United States' 9/11 Commission found that Saudi Arabia uses charity and "government funds to spread Wahhabi [a

Bond Markets: Growing Ever More Bizarre

Central banks have always been able to make waves in markets. But never have they had such far-reaching effects, nor so quickly. The world of bonds is being turned upside down as a result.

ComScore Still Needs to Climb Out of the Penalty Box

ComScore's move to replace its top executives after an investigation into its accounting practices offers investors some hope, but its fundamental issues remain.

New Duke of Westminster, New London Property Cycle

A few decades hence, the unexpected early death of Gerald Grosvenor could end up marking the end of a golden era for London.

Market Extra: The pioneer of smart-beta investing is flashing warning signs

Steadily increasing flows into popular, exchange-traded funds referred to as smart beta are likely sowing the seeds of a future crash, says one of the originators of the strategy.

Market Extra: The Dow at 20,000 in a year is now the consensus forecast

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade above 20,000 in a year, according to a bottom-up analysis of the blue-chip gauge provided by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Market Extra: Why Marc Faber is calling for an ugly stock-market crash—again

Permabear Marc Faber says the market could shed more than half its value, possibly over the next year.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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