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04Aug2016 Market Update: Wall Street Flat, Volume Low, WTI Crude Prices Hit 42 Handle, Short-Term Indicators Neutral To Bearish

Written by Gary

US Indexes Remain mixed and flat as investors were wary of making big bets ahead of Friday's payrolls report. US factory orders fall, business spending shows signs of stabilizing. New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a second straight month in June on weak demand for transportation equipment and capital goods. Gold rolling over, US dollar fractionally higher and Crude price rising.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 1.24%, while Mexico's IPC is off 0.13%. Shares in U.S. are unchanged with the S&P 500 at 2,163.92.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 76%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 80
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 65%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-21.87

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
82%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 69%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 74%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 14.96
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 80.63
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,717

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. jobless claims rise marginally; layoffs increase in July

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, while renewed job cuts in the energy sector boosted layoffs announced by U.S.-based employers in July.

Wall Street flat as investors hold off ahead of jobs data

(Reuters) - Wall Street was little changed on Thursday as investors were wary of making big bets ahead of Friday's payrolls report.

Away from spotlight, U.S. manufacturers battle back from 'China shock'

HICKORY, North Carolina (Reuters) - As furniture makers left Hickory and headed to China at the start of the century, the local community college shuttered its courses in furniture production, abandoning an industry that had sustained this North Carolina community for generations.

Business groups sue over new U.S. limit on tax-driven foreign buyouts

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two business groups sued the Obama administration on Thursday over a crackdown on U.S. companies that try to reduce their U.S. taxes by rebasing abroad in a process known as inversion.

U.S. factory orders fall, business spending shows signs of stabilizing

New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a second straight month in June on weak demand for transportation equipment and capital goods, but signs of stabilization in business spending offered some hope for struggling industries.

Chevron to sell assets in Asia worth up to $5 billion: WSJ

(Reuters) - Chevron Corp, the second-largest U.S. oil company, is selling some assets in Asia worth up to $5 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Airbus narrows order gap with Boeing after air show

PARIS/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Airbus virtually closed the gap with Boeing in the intense battle for airliner orders in July after booking about half of the 197 firm sales unveiled at last month's Farnborough Airshow, according to the latest data from both companies.

Ex-Wall Street banker says he did not give insider tips to father

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A former Wall Street investment banker proclaimed on Thursday that he was innocent of insider trading charges, testifying that he never tipped his father off to inside information about healthcare mergers.

Ford to recall some vehicles to replace side-door latches

(Reuters) - Ford Motor Co said it was recalling about 830,000 vehicles in North America to replace side-door latches that could unlatch while driving.

Deja-Vu(lnerable): Oil Spikes 6% On Contango-Crush As "Violent Reversal" Higher Looms

WTI Crude is up over 6% in 24 hours, since yesterday's surprise build (and production cut) as the machines squeeze out an over-exuberant short positioning once again. However, just as we saw last year around this time, Astenbach's infamous oil veteran Andy Hall is warning a "violent reversal higher" looms again amid extreme positioning and potentially improving fundamentals. Exaggerating the move further is the surge in the contango which has once again made sea-storage profitable, sending yield-seeking traders into the carry trade (and squeezing shorts further).

As Bloomberg reports, despite what Hall called a "miserable month" for oil in July, supplies are still shrinking, he said in his letter, setting up prices to reverse themselves.

"Prices are now back at levels that would ensure the eventual bankruptcy of most of the oil industry," hammering both private oil companies and producing countries like Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela, Hall said. "Prices at current levels are just not sustainable."

"The market is being driven by its own momentum and currently that is down," Hall wrote to investors in his Stamford, Connecticut, hedge fund, Astenbeck Ca ...

Brits Are Hoarding Cash Post-Brexit At Fastest Rate Since 2009

Is this the reason why Mark Carney went Full "shock-and-awe"-tard this morning?

Households may have started to hoard their cash, with new figures showing that the amount of money being kept outside Britain's banking system is now rising at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.

As Sky News reports, in the weeks following the EU referendum, the rate at which households and businesses built up holdings of UK banknotes and coins rose above 8% a year for the first time since 2009, according to a Sky News analysis of Bank of England statistics.

The growth rate of cash in circulation has more than doubled since January, when it was running at 4% a year, with a sudden acceleration in the weeks following the EU poll.

In cash terms, the amount of notes and coins outside the banking system rose by £1.2bn since the end of May, and by £5.9bn in the past year - the biggest annual rise on record.

Sky News has also found that the proportion of UK banknotes circulating outside the banking system - in people's pockets, stored at home and outside the country - has now hit the highest level since 1979, as a percentage of GDP.

Simon Ward ...

What Oil in the $40s Means for Oil Majors

For how long can Europe's big-five energy companies maintain dividend levels? Second-quarter results disappointed and the oil price fell about 20% in the past two months.

How Long Can Adidas Keep the Pace?

Adidas has started to narrow the gap with Nike in the crucial U.S. market, but its valuation looks stretched.

India's Tax Overhaul Shows Emerging Markets How to Rock

India's goods-and-services tax overhaul signals strong momentum in reforming the economy. That's bullish for Indian stocks.

Fertilizer stocks tank as low nitrogen prices batter earnings

CF Industries led a broad-based selloff in the sector after earnings fell short of expectations.

Icahn's bet on Trump Taj Mahal comes up craps

Carl Icahn, who may have lost nearly $100 million on Atlantic City's Trump Taj Mahal, shows investors that the rich doesn't always get richer.

The Tell: This high-risk, low-return stock market has Gross contemplating cats and sex

The fixed-income expert, who manages Janus Capital's unconstrained bond fund, drew parallels between an important childhood chat he had with his mother—and later with his child—about sex and the creation of life.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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