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26Jul2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Stock Futures Unchanged From Yesterday's Close, WTI Crude Is Slipping Further, US Dollar Trending Upwards, United Technologies And Dupont Top 2Q Estimates

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are hugging the unchanged line (SPY -0.06%) as investors maintain a cautious tone ahead of a two-day FOMC meeting on interest rate policy. Markets are also feeling pressure with WTI crude slipping into the mid $42 level. Another round of second-quarter corporate earnings, the Dow component United Technologies and Dupont topped analysts 2Q estimates.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed today. The DAX is up 0.86% while the CAC 40 gains 0.25%. The FTSE 100 is off 0.03%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Fed seen holding rates steady as inflation watch continues

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, deferring any possible increase until September or December, as policymakers hold out for more evidence of a pickup in inflation.

No choppers yet: yen jumps before Bank of Japan meeting

LONDON (Reuters) - A buoyant yen and a fall in oil prices to their lowest since early May put stock markets on the defensive on Tuesday, as investors position for central bank meetings in the United States and Japan.

Verizon reports bigger-than-expected fall in quarterly revenue

(Reuters) - Verizon Communications Inc reported a bigger-than-expected fall in quarterly revenue as the No. 1 U.S. wireless carrier's operations were disrupted by a strike involving its wireline workers and more customers opted for cheaper plans.

The identity crisis that led to Yahoo's demise

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - When senior Yahoo executives gathered at a San Jose hotel for a management retreat in the spring of 2006, there was no outward sign of a company in crisis.

Caterpillar posts lower second-quarter earnings, lowers 2016 outlook

(Reuters) - Caterpillar Inc on Tuesday reported a lower quarterly net profit and lowered its full-year sales forecast as a weakened global economy combined with persistent political uncertainty to keep sales of new machinery sluggish.

Brewer AB InBev raises offer for rival SABMiller

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Anheuser-Busch InBev raised its $100 billion-plus bid for rival brewer SABMiller on Tuesday after a slide in the value of the pound following the Brexit vote made the offer less attractive for many investors, threatening to derail the deal.

McDonald's quarterly revenue falls 3.6 percent

(Reuters) - McDonald's Corp reported a 3.6 percent fall in quarterly revenue as fewer customers visited its restaurants, mainly in the United States.

Verizon sale leaves Yahoo investors betting on a stub

(Reuters) - Yahoo Inc shareholders may be left betting on how quickly, if at all, the former web pioneer can cash in on its multi-billion dollar stakes in two Asian peers after Monday's deal to sell its core internet assets to Verizon Communications Inc.

Renewed oil weakness sparks demand fears

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices topped $50 a barrel in June, boosting optimism a two-year price rout might end. Six weeks later, the long hoped for recovery has yet to take hold.

Crude Carnage Continues: WTI Hits $42 Handle On Inventories, Dollar

With WTI now down over 17% from its mid-June highs, and energy stocks just beginning to wake up to the 2015-analog collapse, fears are rising that once again low oil prices are not 'unequivocally good' for stocks or the economy. Between record speculative long positioning in futures, the fundamental strength of the dollar and surge in gasoline inventories remain the big overhangs (along with rising storage levels at Cushing as demand begins to fade seasonally).

Sept 16 WTI is now down 17% from its recent highs...

Back to unchanged on the year at 3 month lows...

"It's the same things that have been driving it for the past few days now, gasoline inventories haven't declined as much as people thought they were going to," says Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets.

And Energy stocks are catching down fast...

Tracking last year's pump-and-dump of hope perfectly.

Raoul Pal: "The Era Of Doing Nothing And Getting Paid For It Is Over"

By Chris at

Today's podcast is a little different. I speak with Raoul Pal and we cover a number of topics, running from one to another as they crop up. I hope you'll enjoy it as much as I always enjoy speaking with Raoul.

For those of you who've never heard of Raoul - he is first and foremost one of the most congenial, open minded, and thoughtful guys you could ever have the pleasure of discussing the truly mind boggling and fascinating world of global macroeconomics with.

He's also a world renowned global macro investor, an investment strategist, economic historian, traveler, rum drinker, and co-founder of Real Vision TV, together with Grant Williams who I spoke with some time ago. Here's some of the topics Raoul and I cover in the podcast:

  • The end of financialization of the economy. The era of doing nothing and get paid for it is over. Why Raoul thinks that's a good thing (especially if you're an entrepreneur) and he also lays out the way to profit from it.

    Why markets around the world are so fragile today and why the investment environment is so dangerous, especially for less liquid investments.

    Helicopter money - as Raoul said, "We're getti ...

Caterpiller Cuts Guidance On "Subdued Global Growth", Blames Brexit And "Turkey Turmoil"

One day after reporting another disappointing global retail sales report, posting 43 consecutive months of declining global sales...

... moments ago CAT reported Q2 earnings, which were modestly better than expected, with adjusted 2Q EPS of $1.09 vs est. 96c, above the highest est. of 99c on revenue of $10.34BN, also above the $10.13BN estimate.

However, the reason why the short squeeze was not triggered today is because in its earnings the company once again cut guidance, and now sees 2016 revenue of $40.0b-$40.5b, with the midpoint coming below the prior forecast of $40b-$42b, on "persistent economic risks." It also sees 2016 adj. EPS $3.55 excluding costs vs prior forecast $3.70, if still modestly above the consensus est. of $3.52. The reason, according to the company, is that "we're not expecting an upturn in important industries like mining, oil and gas and rail to happen this year."

The company's order backlog was $11.8bn at end of 2Q, down $1.3bn from the end of 1Q with two-thirds of decrease in Construciton Industries. Finally, the company now sees 2016 restructuring costs $700m vs prior forecast $550m; as a result of even more laoffs in the second half.

Here is the company's outlook.

World economic growth remains subdued and is not sufficient to drive improvement in most of the industries and markets we serve. Commodity prices appear to have stabilized, but at low levels. Global uncertainty continues, and the recent Brexi ...

Peak Irony: Mexico Wants To Build The Wall To Stop Illegal Immigration

Submitted by Mac Slavo via,

It turns out that Donald Trump's proposed border wall is not such a bad idea after all. Though Mexico's current and former Presidents have both lambasted Trump for implying that a wall would curb immigration, it turns out that Mexicans like the idea.

There is one small caveat, however. Mexicans don't want to build the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, but rather, they want to stem the tide of immigration into their own country by building the wall on their southern border with central America:

One of the largest newspapers along Mexico's border with Texas is calling for a border wall with Central America, similar to the one being promoted by Republican Presidential Candidate Donald J. Trump.

The editorial board of El Mañana, one of the largest newspapers in the border state of Tamaulipas, penned a piece called "Yes to the Border Wall ... but in Mexico's South." The piece praises the idea of border wall, not on the border with Mexico, but on the border with Central America.

What the Democrats Mean for the Stock Market

The rule of thumb that Republicans are better for investors and big business needs more nuance now.

Twitter Rally Leaves Fundamentals Behind

Twitter's shares have jumped more than 30% since Microsoft's deal for LinkedIn; why the rally looks overdone.

Why Macau's Turnaround Lacks Magic

Chinese gambling hub Macau will remain a city of haves and have-nots.

The Wall Street Journal: Priest and 2 attackers dead after hostage situation at church in France

A priest was killed and another hostage was seriously wounded in an attack on a church in a town in Northern France on Tuesday, police said.

This guy helped Sprint's stock to its biggest one-day gain

Sprint's stock enjoyed its biggest one-day gain since SoftBank Corp. took control three years ago, helped by its ad campaign starring Paul Marcarelli, a former Verizon spokesperson.

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