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22Jul2016 Market Update: WTI Crude Falling Below $44 And Further Losses Expected As The US Dollar Rises, Highest Since March, 2016

Written by Gary

US markets opened fractionally up and quickly traded red for the first hour of the session. The SP 500 and the Nasdaq moved higher (SPY +0.3%) later in the morning, led by technology and telecom stocks, while the Dow's gains were limited by industrial's after GE's disappointing results. The US oil rig count rose by 14 to 371, according to Baker-Hughes. The gas rig count fell by one to 88.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 0.63% while Mexico's IPC is up 0.34% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.32%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 76%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 85%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 65%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

+8.12

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
81%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 70%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 74%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

15.65

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 81.26
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,759

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Tech, telecoms lead Wall Street higher, GE weighs on Dow

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were higher Friday, led by technology and telecom stocks, while the Dow's gains were limited by industrials after GE's disappointing results.

Verizon emerges as front-runner in Yahoo auction: sources

(Reuters) - Yahoo Inc is focusing on U.S. telecommunications company Verizon Communications Inc as the buyer of its core business after reviewing final bids that it received this week, people familiar with the matter said on Friday.

GE reports weak demand for oil, transport equipment; profit beats

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co on Friday reported weak demand for new oil, gas and transportation equipment, raising concerns about its full-year performance and sending its shares down as much as 2.8 percent.

Eyes on Fed, BOJ, Europe's bank stress test

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Central banks from Washington to Tokyo take center stage next week, although policymakers are likely to remain cautious as they wait for the dust to settle from Britain's shock vote to leave the EU.

IMF's Lagarde to stand trial in Tapie case

PARIS (Reuters) - France's highest appeals court ruled on Friday that International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde must stand trial for her role in a 400 million euros ($440 million) state payout in 2008 to businessman Bernard Tapie.

JPMorgan to stop settling government securities for dealers

NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co plans to exit its business of settling government securities for most dealers by the end of next year, the bank said on Friday.

Britain's economy wilting fast after Brexit vote, may prompt more spending

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's economy is shrinking, the broadest survey of business confidence since last month's historic vote to quit the European Union showed on Friday, leading finance minister Philip Hammond to pledge a loosening of purse strings if the weakness endures.

American Air defers aircraft delivery, profit beats estimates

(Reuters) - American Airlines Group Inc reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit as fuel costs fell and the world's largest airline said it would defer taking delivery of 22 Airbus planes to be able to adjust capacity according to demand.

Fox News chief Ailes resigns after sexual harassment claims

NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Roger Ailes on Thursday resigned as chairman and chief executive of Fox News Channel following allegations of sexual harassment, an abrupt end to his 20-year rein over America's most lucrative and powerful cable news channel for conservatives.

Crude Drops After US Oil Rig Count Jumps Most Since 2009

Having risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks, the US oil rig count extended its run with a 14 rig surge this week - the biggest absolute rise since Dec 2015. Oil rigs have now risen 55 rigs in the last 8 weeks - the biggest percentage rise since Dec 2009. WTI is tumbling to fresh 3-month lows on the news...


*OIL RIGS IN D-J/NIOBRARA ROSE BY 2 TO 18: BAKER HUGHES

*OIL RIGS IN EAGLE FORD ROSE BY 2 TO 29: BAKER HUGHES

*OIL RIGS IN PERMIAN ROSE BY 8 TO 168: BAKER HUGHES

The 14 rig surge to 371 is the biggest weekly percentage rise since Nov 2009...

And crude hit fresh 3mo lows...

Trump Bounce? S&P Nears Record Highs As VIX Is Smashed Back To 11 Handle

The S&P 500 is back within a few points of its record highs this morning despite the collapse in crude as it appears Trump's speech has inspired traders to dump protection and BTFD...

Housing's Comeback Gains Steam

With the housing market shifting into higher gear, the economy could pick up the pace.

Why Emerging Markets Have Wind at Their Backs

Emerging markets aren't a haven—but they look like a compelling alternative to the bigger concerns that still lie in developed markets.

Post-Brexit Economy: Pretty Morose Index

The U.K. purchasing managers' indexes for July showed a plunge in business activity after the Brexit vote. The pound, sent lower on the reading, could decline further yet.

On Pokemon Go, why so many people are choosing Team Mystic

It also explains how retailers sell furniture, clothes and even cellphone plans.

Slide Show: The Filthy-Rich 50: Meet the richest person in each U.S. state

They're not all billionaires, but they're probably richer than you.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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