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13Jul2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Test SP 500's High Mark On Today's Opening, Crude Prices Remain High In An Oversupplied Global Market, Short-Term Indicators Flashing Caution

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are fractionally higher (SPY +0.2%) indicating an opening that will test yesterday's SP500's historic high. Crude prices (WTI) have remained in the low to mid $46 range as the US dollar continues to show weakness. Analysts calling for caution as bull rally appears to sputter.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 0.49% while Germany's DAX is up 0.18% and London's FTSE 100 is up 0.08%.

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.8% to 16231. Hong Kong +0.5% to 21322. China +0.4% to 3060. India flat at 27815.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -1.4% to $46.17. Gold +0.4% to $1340.10.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.48%

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Brexit, what Brexit? Shares near 2016 highs

LONDON (Reuters) - Stock markets traded within sight of their highest levels this year on Wednesday as the prospect of stimulative economic policy across the developed world eased immediate concern over Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

Oil drops on IEA glut warning, rise in U.S. stocks

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that a global supply glut threatened a price recovery and data showed an unexpected weekly gain in U.S. crude stocks.

U.S. economy performing despite headwinds, leaders must cooperate: Lew

LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy continues to perform steadily in the face of headwinds, though leaders need to work together and use all tools at their disposal to promote growth, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Wednesday.

Many fear changes to U.S. SEC's in-house trials not enough

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top U.S. securities regulator on Wednesday will try to answer complaints it stacks the deck against defendants at in-house trials by approving its first major revisions to the administrative proceedings in two decades.

Citigroup targets high-growth firms to boost Asia corporate banking business

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc looks to sharpen its focus on winning a bigger share of business from "emerging market champions" in Asia, including rapidly growing Internet firms, as part of its plans to boost corporate banking revenue.

China says U.S. deliberately misread WTO rules in steel subsidy spat

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday the United States had deliberately misinterpreted World Trade Organization (WTO) rules after the U.S. Commerce Department found in favor of subsidy rates for Chinese steel.

No balance: oil markets still oversupplied, now growth is stuttering

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - Oil industry hopes that markets are about return to balance, ending a global glut that pulled down prices by over 70 percent between 2014 and early 2016, might be abruptly dashed.

Airbus says output cut won't drive A380 massively into red

FARNBOROUGH, England (Reuters) - Airbus does not expect its A380 superjumbo program to fall massively into the red as a result of its decision to cut production, and is optimistic about long-term prospects for the jet, the European planemaker's group CEO said on Wednesday.

Fed's Mester heartened by U.S. job rebound in June

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The sharp rebound in U.S. job growth last month eased concerns that the country's labor market had regressed, a top Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday, repeating she continues to expect gradual interest rate rises.

Frontrunning: July 13



Brexit, what Brexit? Shares near 2016 highs (Reuters), Global Stocks Inch Higher (WSJ), Stocks Climb With Copper as Brexit-Induced Volatility Subsides (BBG)

Yen under pressure as global stock markets rally (Reuters)

Spanish Banks Surge as Fears Subside Over EU Mortgage Ruling (BBG)

Pimco Loads Up on Treasuries as Gundlach to Gross Voice Caution (BBG)

U.S. Presses China to Be Responsible Power After Sea Ruling (BBG)

Tesla Has No Plans to Disable Autopilot Feature in Its Cars (WSJ)

China vows to protect South China Sea sovereignty, Manila upbeat (Reuters)

'Pokémon Go' Craze Raises Safety Issues (WSJ)

Record Stock-Market Rally Powered by Companies Analysts Despise (BBG)

U.S. arms sales approvals on track to re ...

Stocks Rally - Is Brexit Systemic Risks Contained?

Equity markets globally have rebounded to their pre-Brexit levels and volatility in financial markets is the lowest that it has been for a month. Even the precious metals rally has taken a breather. Are the markets suggesting that the fallout from Brexit is less than previously thought and that the systemic risk posed by the UK leaving the EU is contained.

The emergence of Theresa May as the new Prime Minister of Great Britain has at least given a degree of certainty in what was looking like a political vacuum but is this enough to ease the nerves of the financial markets. In the short term, at least it would appear so.

Unexpectedly, calm is returning to global markets on speculation central bank action will be sufficient to restrict any Brexit contagion. Economists predict the Bank of England will cut interest rates Thursday, while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has ordered more fiscal stimulus. Traders are pricing in less than 35 percent odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates this year.

Today, Bloomberg takes a look at what o ...

Gundlach Gets More Bearish, Says "Big Money" To Be Made On The "Short Side"

As we noted yesterday, in his latest webcast to DoubleLine investors, Jeff Gundlach confirmed the key points from his weekend Barrons which summarized his outlook that "things will get worse in the future, not better." But while Gundlach's skeptical bent has been well-known, we also learned that Gundlach has been actively adding to shorts as the market breaks out to new record highs. Cited by Reuters, the new bond king said that there is "big money" to be made on the "short side."

Gundlach added that he has been selectively betting against shares in the Standard & Poor's 500 index and continues to favor emerging market bonds over high-yield "junk" debt. Comparing the price action in the S&P to recent moves in treasuries, Gundlach said that "a minor new high in the S&P might be rejected, which is what happened with U.S. Treasuries." On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed at a new record high for the second day in a row, closing at 2152.14.

As much as he dislikes equities, Gundlach is just as skeptical about bonds, warning investors that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note at around 1.38% to 1.39% "is a terrible trade location. It is the worst trade location in the history of the 10-year Treasury."

This warning was followed by the biggest two-day spike in 10Y yields in 5 years. Gundlach said on Tuesday's webcast that he sees the yield on the 10-year Treasury settling around 1.7 percent as a near-term base case.

The new bond king has repeatedly said gold is the better alternative to Treasuries and equities against the backdrop of "a banking system in Europe, which is in ...

Can Nintendo's 'Pokémon Go' Stick Around?

Keeping new hot games going against big, older titles is a major challenge.

Why World's Biggest Jeweler Has False Luster

Gold may be resurgent, but Chow Tai Fook, the world's largest jeweler, still doesn't glitter.

Beware the Squishy Math of ComScore's Pay Plan

Amid worries about comScore's internal-accounting investigation, investors also should examine the numbers behind the company's lucrative executive-compensation plan.

Import and Export Price Year-over-Year Deflation Moderated Again in June 2016.

Written by Steven Hansen

Trade prices continue to deflate year-over-year - although the rate of deflation again declined this month.

Deep Dive: These 32 century-old companies pay dividends of more than 3%

Half of them have handed investors double-digit returns so far this year, says Phil van Doorn.

The Wall Street Journal: Uber to suspend operations in Budapest

Uber says it will suspend its activities in Budapest after the Hungarian government made it impossible to operate in the country properly.

MarketWatch First Take: Why Howard Schultz and Jamie Dimon decided to lift worker pay

Ignore their PR pitches — Howard Schultz and Jamie Dimon are facing pressure to keep their workers, because the pool of new ones not only won't come cheap but may not be as skilled.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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