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07Jul2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Stock Futures Flat, SP 500 Remains At Important Resistance, Investors Awaiting Key Economic News Which Could Push Markets Lower

Written by Gary

U.S. futures flat and trending down (SPY -0.05%) indicating a possible lower opening with key employment data and oil inventories ahead. Crude price pushed higher in European trade overnight amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session for a U.S. supply drop. Investors are waiting for a host economic data this morning that would provide clues on the strength of the economy.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are broadly higher today with shares in London leading the region. The FTSE 100 is up 1.24% while France's CAC 40 is up 1.08% and Germany's DAX is up 0.54%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Danone to acquire U.S. organic foods group WhiteWave in $12.5 billion deal

PARIS (Reuters) - France's Danone said on Thursday it would double the size of its U.S. business by buying organic foods producer WhiteWave Foods Co in a deal worth $12.5 billion, including some $2.1 billion of debt and "other" liabilities.

Stock futures flat as investors brace for economic data

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Thursday as investors awaited a host economic data that would provide clues on the strength of the economy and determine whether the Federal Reserve would be able to raise interest rates this year.

Global stocks and sterling bounce after Brexit bashing

LONDON (Reuters) - Share markets climbed on Thursday as upbeat U.S. economic data took some of the sting out of the Brexit scare, while the Australian dollar dipped as the country's triple A credit rating came under threat.

New products, lower costs help PepsiCo top profit estimates

(Reuters) - PepsiCo Inc reported a better-than-expected profit for the second quarter, helped by lower raw material costs as well as strong demand for Frito-Lay snacks and new beverages in North America.

Investment banks tell UK's Osborne they will help London after Brexit vote

LONDON (Reuters) - Major investment banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan said they would work to help London remain a top center for international finance, in a joint statement on Thursday with British finance minister George Osborne.

Citigroup merges EMEA, Asia consumer banking businesses: internal memo

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Citigroup is merging its consumer banking unit in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) with Asia, the largest region for profit for the business outside North America, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters on Thursday.

Fog of Brexit clouds outlook for central banks seeking clarity

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - For much of this year, the dollar, oil prices, and economic conditions largely behaved as the U.S. Federal Reserve had expected, allowing policymakers to plot further interest rate increases.

In UK property turmoil, some wealthy Asians seek bargains

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Some Asian institutions and wealthy investors are eyeing London property despite turmoil in the market following Britain's decision to leave the EU, with the subsequent plunge in sterling among the factors making prized assets more attractive.

JPMorgan could move thousands of staff out of UK: report

MILAN (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co could be forced to move thousands of staff out of Britain if the country loses its automatic right to sell financial services to the European Union after last month's Brexit vote, bank CEO Jamie Dimon told an Italian newspaper.

Following Near Record Buying Spree, Gold ETF Holding Rise Above 2,000 Tons, Highest Since 2013

We have previously commented on a peculiar divergence observable among gold investors: whereas those who buy physical gold tend to buy more the lower the price of gold drops (as conventional economic theory says they should), the subset of gold-buyers who prefer to trade a "paper" version of gold in the form of ETFs only start buying when prices rise, with buying - ironically - peaking just around the time the price of the commodity does the same. Whether this has to do with momentum-chasing algos or is simply a travesty of what new normal "investing" is all about, is unknown, but what we do know is that as of this moment, global gold holdings in ETFs topped 2,000 metric tons for the first time since June 2013 following the Brexit fallout, when gold buying has sparked even more gold buying.

What is also curious is how much greater the impact of paper-denominated gold purchases on the price of gold is compared to simple physical purchases, which have been ongoing for the past year with barely a dent in the price of gold which had traded around $1,100 for nearly a year before it ultimately set off for its latest torrid ramp higher.

As Bloomberg notes, holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds rose 4.1 tons to 2,001.4 tons on Wednesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That's larger than the alleged gold reserves held by China (in reality China holds far more gold but it willing to only represent a fraction of its official holdings) the biggest consumer and a consistent central-bank buyer in recent months. The latest increase followed the biggest one-day gain since 2009 in the SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold ETF.

Frontrunning: July 7



Global stocks and sterling bounce after Brexit bashing (Reuters)

FBI director to face Republican fire over Clinton email probe (Reuters)

UK's Hammond says Article 50 a decision for government, not parliament (Reuters)

GOP Puts Pressure on Clinton, FBI After Lynch Closes Email Probe (WSJ)

Gold's Most Accurate Forecaster Says Prices May Go to $1,425 (BBG)

Central Banks Put Squeeze on Sovereign-Debt Market (WSJ)

L&G's fund arm, F&C cut value of UK property funds (Reuters)

Danone Boosts U.S. Business With $10 Billion WhiteWave Deal (WSJ)

This Hedge Fund Wants to Use Atomic Clocks to Beat High-Speed Traders (BBG)

Cruel summer for U.S. refiners as margins tank (Reuters)

Populist Politicians Take On Italy's Massive Debt Pile (

Property Fund Turmoil in the UK has Eerie Echoes of Bear Stearns

The fallout from Brexit continues and financial uncertainty can be seen in the markets as the British Pound continues to come under pressure and a growing number of property funds in the UK freezing redemptions. The Telegraph's Ben Marlow draws some chilling comparisons with the Bear Stearns crisis of 2007.

Almost nine years since that fateful day, and the ghost of Bear Stearns is stalking the Square Mile again after the lockdown of three of the UK's biggest property funds.

Bear Stearns

After the initial post-Brexit rout, which resulted in sterling and equities getting pummelled, markets looked to have finally calmed down with the FTSE 100 moving past its pre-Brexit level.

However, investors have been spooked once again after insurance giants Standard Life, Aviva and M&G, froze redemptions in their retail property funds.

The full report can be read here

A Trigger to Revisit Bigger Global Worries

After the Brexit vote, the pound has dropped below $1.30, bond markets are going ballistic and risk appetite is taking a drubbing. But apart from the pound, is this really about the U.K.'s exit from the European Union?

Investors' Thirst for Yield Is a Bubbly Bet

As PepsiCo has shown, the quest for safe alternatives to low-yielding bonds is an increasingly crowded trade.

Unhappy Anniversary at Twitter

A year after Jack Dorsey returned to the helm of Twitter, the company seems no closer to achieving the strategic shift it needs to spur growth.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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