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05Jul2016 Market Update: DOW Down Triple Digits, WTI Crude Slips Further, USD Remains Stable, Further Market Losses Predicted

Written by Gary

US markets down and trading sideways after new orders for U.S. factory goods fell in May on weak demand for transportation and defense capital goods. Extended losses in early afternoon trading today as oil prices slipped 4% and tepid U.S. data added to global growth worries. Short-term indicators remain bearish on falling volume.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly lower today with shares in Brazil off the most. The Bovespa is down 1.74% while Mexico's IPC is off 1.03% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is lower by 0.90%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 66%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 67%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 54.1%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 46.45
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
66%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 57.20%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 52.6%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 13.7
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 77.97
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,397

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street skids as global growth worries resurface

(Reuters) - Wall Street extended losses in early afternoon trading on Tuesday as oil prices slipped further and tepid U.S. data added to global growth worries.

U.S. factory orders fall, but rising backlogs hint at stabilization

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods fell in May on weak demand for transportation and defense capital goods, but growing order backlogs and lean inventories suggested the worst of the manufacturing downturn was probably over.

Ford 2011-2015 Explorers probed by U.S. on possible exhaust leaks

DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. safety officials from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration have opened an investigation into possible exposure to carbon monoxide in recent models of the Ford Motor Co Explorer SUVs, the regulator's website showed on Tuesday.

'Sweetest' town clings to Hershey, adding to takeover hurdles

HERSHEY, Pennsylvania (Reuters) - The town of Hershey, Pennsylvania, calls itself the "sweetest place on earth."

Fed's Williams says Brexit effect as expected, no big deal

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - U.S. market reaction to Britain's vote to leave the European Union has played out "more or less" as expected, and the impact on the U.S. economy is much less than other that of other events in recent years, a top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday.

Oil slumps 4 percent on global economic jitters, supply builds

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices slid more than 4 percent on Tuesday as investors worried that Britain's exit from the European Union would slow the global economy, and as data showed a build in stockpiles at the delivery point for U.S. crude futures.

Twinkies maker Hostess to go public under new owner

(Reuters) - Hostess Brands LLC, the maker of Twinkies and Ding Dongs, said an affiliate of private equity firm Gores Group will buy the company in a $725 million deal and take it public.

McDonald's wins EU 'MacCoffee' trademark dispute

STRASBOURG - McDonald's won a trademark dispute with a Singapore rival on Tuesday as Europe's second highest court backed its claim to have exclusive rights to the use of 'Mc' or 'Mac' in trademark names for foodstuffs and beverages.

Bank of England takes steps to meet Brexit challenge, pound falls

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England took steps to ensure British banks keep lending and insurers do not dump corporate bonds as it said the economic risks it warned of before the vote to leave the European Union had started to materialize.

Peak FBI Corruption? Meet Bryan Nishimura, Found Guilty For "Removal And Retention Of Classified Materials"

In a scandalous announcement, FBI director James Comey moments ago said that "although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information" and he gave extensive evidence of just that, "our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case." He added that "prosecutors necessarily weigh a number of factors before bringing charges. There are obvious considerations, like the strength of the evidence, especially regarding intent. Responsible decisions also consider the context of a person's actions, and how similar situations have been handled in the past."

What is shocking is that the FBI director was clearly ignoring the US code itself, where in Section 793, subsection (f),"Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information", it makes it quite clear that intent is not a key consideration in a case like this when deciding to press charges, to wit:

Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of his trust, or to be lost, stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, or (2) having knowledge that the same has been illegally removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of its trust, or lost, or stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, and fails to make prompt report of such loss, theft, abstraction, or destruction to ...

Crude Crashes Most In 9 Months

WTI Crude is down over 5% to $46.50 - its biggest daily drop since early September 2015...

With East Coast gas inventories at a record high...

Sparking selling in crude..

Crude dropped with equities on a gloomy outlook for the global economy and amid signs that oil stockpiles remain ample.

Nigerian oil output rose last month following repairs to infrastructure that had been damaged by militant attacks, a Bloomberg survey showed, while gasoline supplies on the U.S. East Coast reached a record, the government said. Gasoline futures dropped to the lowest price in more than two months.

"The path of least resistance is lower," said Michael Wittner, the New York-based head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA. "The long-term picture remains bullish but in the short-term, crude is coming back from the disruptions. We have a lot of crude to work off as well."

< ...

Why the Bank of England Is Letting Off Steam

U.K. regulators respond to Brexit by easing capital rules for banks and insurers

ECB, Brexit and the Battle of the Bonds

Investors are again looking for action from the ECB. More pressure should be placed on politicians.

Huge China Bank IPO Is a Dud

Postal Savings Bank of China is trying to raise $7.5 billion in Hong Kong IPO but weak capital, fast loan growth and inefficient operations are warning signs.

Capitol Report: FBI director says charges aren't 'appropriate' in Clinton email case

The director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation says that no charges are "appropriate" in the case involving Hillary Clinton's use of private email.

London Markets: FTSE 100 trudges higher, but banks, property stocks get hit

U.K. blue-chip stocks edged higher Tuesday, with consumer-related shares gaining as the pound tumbled to a fresh three-decade low, but property and bank shares remained stuck in the red.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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