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29Jun2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Stock Future Indexes Up Fractionally Continuing Market Rally After Brexit Bombshell, WTI Crude Steady And USD Slipping Sharply

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are up again this morning and pointing to sharp gains at the open, (SPY +0.7%), WTI Crude in the low 48's and the USD slipping below 96. The initial panic surrounding Britain's vote to leave the European Union has settled somewhat and investors seeking out out bargains. Wall Street is looking to extend what had been the strongest one-day climb in four months.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are sharply higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 2.27% while London's FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and Germany's DAX is up 1.35%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Stock futures tread higher as Brexit fears ebb

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher for a second day as the initial panic surrounding Britain's vote to leave the European Union settled and investors sought out bargains.

Global stocks gain as Brexit nerves settle

LONDON (Reuters) - European and Asian stock markets built on a recovery from the aftermath of last week's Brexit vote on Wednesday as investors wagered central banks would ultimately ride to the rescue with more stimulus.

Hong Kong regulator censures Bank of America units for takeover code breaches

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has publicly censured two units of Bank of America for breaches of the city's takeover codes in two deals last year, the regulator said on Wednesday.

North America leaders meet with trade threats, Brexit on their minds

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The leaders of the United States, Canada and Mexico gather on Wednesday to stress the importance of trade at a time of mounting international doubts about the benefits of globalization.

General Mills quarterly profit beats estimates

(Reuters) - General Mills Inc , the maker of Cheerios cereal and Yoplait yogurt, reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit, helped by cost cuts and higher demand in markets outside the United States.

Canada's CIBC to buy U.S.-based PrivateBancorp in $3.8 billion deal

(Reuters) - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce said it would buy Chicago-based PrivateBancorp Inc in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $3.8 billion to offer its Canadian clients access to U.S. banking services.

Goldman, Morgan Stanley deny plans for Frankfurt office switch after Brexit

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have denied speculation they are poised to shift London-based staff and operations to Frankfurt as soon as Britain's divorce proceedings from the European Union formally begin.

With Amazon in sight, Wal-Mart to offer free shipping for 30 days

(Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc said it launched a free 30-day trial of ShippingPass, its two-day shipping program to all shoppers in the United States, as the world's largest retailer looks to take on Amazon.com Inc's Prime subscription service.

IKEA recalls 36 million chests, dressers after six deaths

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Swedish furniture retailer IKEA Group is recalling almost 36 million chests and dressers in the United States and Canada that have been linked to the deaths of six children, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said on Tuesday.

Islamic State Blamed For Istanbul Terror Attack That Killed 41

The death toll from Tuesday's attack on this city's main airport has risen to 41, including 13 foreign nationals, with 239 injured, the Istanbul governor's office said Wednesday. Despite the attack, Istanbul Atatürk Airport resumed business Wednesday morning the WSJ reported. Television footage from inside the airport showed check-in lines functioning normally. Turkish Airlines, the country's flag carrier, said its flight operations had resumed, though the airport's arrivals and departures board showed heavy cancellations and delays.

AbduRahman Hussein, a filmmaker from Sana'a, Yemen, was about to eat at one of the terminal's second-floor restaurants when he heard shots and explosions. "I saw the smoke," he said in a direct message on Facebook. "Then I started running away." He posted pictures of shattered glass and people running. The dramatic explosion was caught on tape:

And with the damage now largely accounted for, it's time to cast blame which Turkey was eager to do when Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said in televised remarks that the Islamic State is likely responsible for the killings. "Once again, it has been understood that terrorism is a global threat to all countries and nations and must be fought through mutual cooperation," Yildirim said. "Our country has the necessary power and determination to overcome over these heinous attacks."

Erdogan said in an e-mailed statement that the Istanbul airport attack was an effort to hurt Turkey's image. "For the terrorist organizations, there's no difference between Istanbul and London, Ankara and Berlin," he said, urging all countries to join forces against terrorism.

What is odd is that the Islamic State, traditionally eager to immediately take responsibility for foreign terror operations, has kept silent: there wa ...

Germany Just Blew Up Italy's Bank Bailout Plan

"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before."

Rahm Emanuel prophetic words were quickly put to use by Italy on Monday morning, which barely waited one full day before using Brexit as the scapegoat excuse to warn that a 40 billion bailout of Italian banks is coming.

As a reminder, on Monday morning the local media reported that Renzi's
government was pursuing a six-month waiver of EU state-aid rules,
allowing it to shore up banks without forcing investors to share losses. Two days ago, when we first reported of Italy's proposed bank rescue plan, we said that the chairman of Lower House's Finance Commission, Maurizio Bernardo, confirmed that the government is studying options to support the banking sector, including a capital injection, and said a law decree "with measures going in that direction" could be approved by the end of this week.

We pointed out that how such an intervention would be implemented was unclear; it was is also unclear how such a direct state recapitalization of Italian banks using public funds would be permitted by current EU and ECB regulations, which prohibit state bailouts of insolvent banks, although Europe has a long and illustrious history of finding massive loopholes to that particular prohibition. "Last but not least it is unclear how existing stakeholders, shareholders, bondholders and uninsured depositors, would be impaired under such a bailout."

Well, they wouldn't, despite Europe's recent implementation of bail-in rules. That was the whole point.

However, while Italy was hoping it would get a "p ...

Frontrunning: June 29



Global stocks gain as Brexit nerves settle (Reuters)

Draghi Wishes for a World Order Populists Will Love to Hate (BBG)

Merkel Says No Way Back From Brexit as Cameron Regrets Loss (BBG)

EU leaders meet without UK to plot Brexit response (FT)

Division, confusion as EU rethinks future without Britain (AP)

Goldman denies plans for Frankfurt office switch after Brexit (Reuters)

Brexit Vote Roils Real-Estate Markets (WSJ)

Will Brexit Actually Happen? (BBG)

Donald Trump Lays Out Protectionist Views in Trade Speech (WSJ)

Islamic State prime suspect after suicide bombers kill 41 at Istanbul airport (Reuters)

Istanbul Airport Reopens Even as Attack Death Toll Rises (WSJ)

European Banks Spend Billions to Get U.S. Units Fit for the Fed (

Don't Worry, You Are Not Alone: "No One Knows How To Price Brexit" Citi Admits

No idea how to trade Brexit, and simply following the momentum-driven crowd which in turn is trading on hopes of central bank intervention? Don't worry, you are not alone. As Citi admits "No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward."

Here is Citi's William Lee "clarifying" the prevailing market cluelessness:

The UK vote to leave the EU surprised almost everyone, especially market participants. It left unprecedented uncertainty about future economic and political relations between the UK and the EU.

From the US perspective, the market selloff has been large but orderly. Indeed, global markets began to stabilize today, after two days of probing for equilibrium prices and their implied trajectories going forward.

Whereas spot prices have stabilized, there appears to be little conviction among traders and other financial market participants about the course of exchange rates and asset prices going forward.


Market sentiment remains tentative; small catalysts can be very disruptive.

A common trading floor comment is: "No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward."

Our past research has shown that uncertainty is pernicious: it can induce a significant drag on economic growth. The Brexit vote amplifies uncertainty with unprecedented economic and political considerations whose impact on global economic activity is difficult to discern. Fed policy remains sensitive to market sentiment, and the FOMC likely would not do anything that could be disruptive.

Quantifying the Brexit Shock

Investors are facing what may be the biggest policy shock of their lifetimes. But past events give some sense of what sort of damage it may cause.

Why Nothing Is Simple in China's Overcapacity Push

West China Cement lost nearly half its value in an hour, a troubling signal about China's commitment to clamp down on industrial overcapacity.

Ping An Deal Leaves Investors Crushed in Autohome Crash

The Chinese car insurer may have succeeded in controlling Autohome. But fixing this shambles of a situation will require another level of commitment.

The True Nature Of Gold Is Liberty

from Money Metals Exchange

-- this post authored by Guy Christopher

"Look at that screen," exclaimed Fox Business Network's Stuart Varney, referring to the television graphic showing markets crashing across the globe. "The only thing going up is the price of gold!"

The Wall Street Journal: Valspar shareholders to decide on sale to Sherwin-Williams

Valspar will hold a special meeting on Wednesday to decide whether to sell to Sherwin-Williams.

Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks poised to rise again as Brexit worries fade

U.S. stock futures point to a higher open on Wednesday, as Brexit-related worries ebb, while focus will turn to data including reports on consumer spending and home sales.

Outside the Box: How big banks can stop FinTech upstarts from getting your money

Traditional banking companies are under attack from well-funded upstarts. Here's how banks can win the battle.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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