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23Jun2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Latest Poll, UK To Remain In EU, Futures Up Sharply, WTI Up 2% As The US Dollar Falters

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are up sharply (SPY +0.9%) and at their highest level in a month this morning as investors saw an increased chance of Britain remaining in the European Union, a scenario that would avert a possible financial crisis.

Oil prices are up to two percent today, shrugging off a smaller than expected draw on U.S. crude stocks as money and equity markets firmed after the last sweep of Brexit opinion polls raised optimism over Britain remaining in the EU.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are sharply higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 1.71% while Germany's DAX is up 1.68% and London's FTSE 100 is up 1.20%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Stock futures touch month-high as Bremain seen likely

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were at their highest level in a month on Thursday as investors saw an increased chance of Britain remaining in the European Union, a scenario that would avert a possible financial crisis.

Oil rises as investors focus on Britain's EU referendum

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose by up to 2 percent on Thursday, shrugging off a smaller than expected draw on U.S. crude stocks as money and equity markets firmed after the last sweep of Brexit opinion polls raised optimism over Britain remaining in the EU.

After setbacks, N.Y. prosecutors resume insider trading crackdown

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are pursuing insider trading cases on a pace not seen since 2012 - before a major appellate ruling limited their ability to bring charges against hedge fund managers and other traders.

EU regulators to rule on $130 billion Dow, DuPont deal by July 28

LONDON - EU antitrust authorities will decide by July 28 whether to allow the $130 billion merger of U.S. chemical company Dow Chemical Co and its rival DuPont , one of several large agribusiness deals.

Sterling hits 2016 high, stocks climb as UK votes on Brexit

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling hit a 2016 high and world stocks climbed for a fifth day running on Thursday, as British voters headed to the polls for a crucial vote on their European Union membership.

Fiat Chrysler recalls 13,000 Maserati cars for rollaway issue

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Maserati unit is recalling 13,092 2014 Quattroporte and Ghibli luxury cars in the United States because they may roll away after drivers mistakenly believe they have engaged the vehicles in 'park' mode, documents posted on a government website Thursday showed.

Exclusive: Analysis suggests Anthem deal could raise health costs

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As questions mount over whether health insurer Anthem Inc's proposed $48 billion purchase of Cigna Corp will win U.S. antitrust approval, an exclusive analysis produced for Reuters suggests the merger could lead to higher costs for large companies offering workplace medical benefits.

Behind Tesla carnage, signs of support for Musk's SolarCity deal

(Reuters) - Some of Tesla Motor Inc's biggest investors have signaled support for CEO Elon Musk's plan to buy solar power company SolarCity Corp , although the electric car maker's stock cratered on Wednesday, lopping more than the $2.8 billion value of the proposed deal off Tesla's market capitalization.

Exclusive: ECB to guide banks on working off bad debt before setting targets - sources

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is planning to give euro zone banks non-binding guidance by the end of 2016 or early 2017 to cut their bad debt pile, raising the heat on lenders but not forcing their hand, sources said.

As Of This Moment, Barclays Is Not Accepting FX Stop Loss Orders

Anyone wondering why gaps and volatility in FX, and especially cable is reaching on the absured today, with 100 pips swings in minutes the norm, the reason is that there is virtually no liquidity, and a main catalyst for this is that as HFTs conduct their usual stop hunts to stop out proximal limit orders, they simply find no such stops. They can blame banks such as Barclays for this development: as of 600 GMT this morning, Barclays has stopped accepting new stop loss orders as banks, concerned about today's vote outcome, seek to cap their exposure to the results of Britain's referendum on EU membership.

As the Barclays letter shown below states, it would not execute such trades, where the bank seeks to close existing positions for clients at a pre-established price, through its machine-trading algorithms. According to Reuters, Barclays' refusal of all new stop-loss orders, whether over the phone or through messaging or dealing systems, is extremely rare and a measure of the big banks' concerns that a vote to leave the European Union would spark similar chaos to that after last year's blowout on the Swiss franc.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch and UBS both issued communications to clients this week, seen by Reuters, which warn of potential gaps in the services they normally provide to major institutional clients.

Arguments over whether banks could have achieved better prices for stop loss orders were at the heart of legal arguments between financial firms over hundreds of millions of dollars in losses caused by the franc's surge in January of last year.

"Barclays have advised on Monday that they weren't accepting stop loss orders via Barx algo execution," a senior trader with one bank in London told Reuters. "Further they are not accepting any stop loss orders from 7am (today)."

The trading restriction will last until 10pm London time on June 24.

Full Barclays announcement:

Or ...

Frontrunning: June 23



'Brexit' Vote: U.K. Heads to the Polls in Historic Referendum on EU Membership (WSJ)

The Brits Have No Good Options on Europe Vote (BBG)

Stocks Rise With U.S. Futures as Pound Gains While U.K. Votes (BBG)

Trump and Clinton Place Bets to Woo Undecided Voters (BBG)

China brushes off doubts over support on South China Sea, says it is growing (Reuters)

After setbacks, N.Y. prosecutors resume insider trading crackdown (Reuters)

Twilio Raises More Than Expected in IPO (WSJ)

The Chinese Connection Fueling America's Fentanyl Crisis (WSJ)

Platinum Partners Said to Be Raided by FBI Amid Bribes Probe (BBG)

McDonald's gets bids for China, HK stores sale in up to $3 billion deal (Reuters)

Rebel 'Romance' Means Gold and Cocaine to Flow After Peace Deal (BBG) ...

Britain Votes: All You Need To Know About Today's Brexit Referendum And What To Look For

Starting at 600 GMT, and continuing through 2100 GMT when polls close, Britain is conducting a historic referendum on whether to stay in the European Union on Thursday. While results from each of the 382 counting areas will be released overnight and into the morning, the market already appears to have made up its mind what will happen. Sitll, for those who have yet to vote, and everyone else following along, here are the full details of how today's vote will take place and what to watch for (all times in GMT, an hour before local UK time).

WHEN WILL RESULTS COME?

Votes will be counted by hand, starting as soon as polls close at 2100 GMT.

Each of 382 local counting areas will tally the number of ballot papers cast and announce local turnout figures (including spoiled ballots and postal votes) in each of the areas. The Electoral Commission has estimated that most turnout announcements at counting-area level will come between 2230 on June 23 and 0130 on June 24. The last turnout figure is expected at around 0400.

Each area will count the votes and announce totals for REMAIN and LEAVE. The majority of counting areas are expected to declare between around 0100 and 0300 on June 24. The last declaration is expected around 0600.

Local totals will be collated into totals for 12 regions, and then a final, national, result. The final result will be announced in Manchester by Jenny Watson, Chief Counting Officer.

WHEN CAN PEOPLE VOTE?


Polling stations open at 0600 on June 23 and close at 2100.

ARE ALL THE COUNTING AREAS THE SAME?


No. The counting areas, based along the lines of local government authorities, vary widely in population. The biggest counting areas are Birmingham, Leeds and Northern Ireland.

The Birmingham area has around 700,000 eligible voters while the City of London countin ...

The Real Reason 'Brexit' Has World on Edge

The biggest, least understood risk in a British exit from Europe isn't to the U.K. itself, but to the wider Western world.

Tesla: Incessant Cash Burn and Looming Competition Isn't a Trillion-Dollar Formula

Elon Musk says Tesla Motors' bid to buy SolarCity could help the electric-car maker become the world's first company with a trillion-dollar market capitalization. To do that, Tesla's formula would have to change.

Asian Tycoons Will Be First Hit by 'Brexit' Vote

As ballot counting comes in before Europe awakes, Asian tycoons Li Ka-shing and Ratan Tata will be the first to feel the seismic waves of the vote result.

May 2015 Philly Fed Coincident Index Rate of Year-over-Year Rate Of Growth Marginally Slows

The year-over-year rate of growth of the US Coincident Index marginally slowed relative to last month's revised level. A comparison of this US Coincident Index with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board Coincident Index, ECRI's Coincident Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index follows.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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