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22Jun2016 Market Update: Brexit Worries Take Center Stage As US Equities Trade In Flat Territory, WTI Crude Falls From $50 Coveted Level

Written by Gary

US markets are trading in positive territory, but remain flat (SPY +0.01) and could drop further if any new news of an unfavorable Brexit comes to bear. Crude prices have fallen below $50 and appear to seek even lower levels as this session progresses.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The S&P 500 is up 0.12% while the IPC gains 0.05%. The Bovespa is off 1.13%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street trims gains as survey adds to Brexit worries

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks trimmed gains and were flat in early afternoon trading on Wednesday after a new poll moderated expectations that Britain will vote to remain in the European Union.

U.S. policymakers, companies see a Brexit hurting investment, profits

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A vote by Britons to leave the European Union on Thursday may not drag the United States into recession, but its effects on U.S. monetary policy, trade and corporate profits are causing concern in Washington D.C. and boardrooms alike.

Fed's Yellen says no special meetings scheduled over Brexit

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she has not scheduled special meetings for Friday or Saturday in order to respond to the "Brexit" vote in Britain over its membership in the European Union.

IMF sees U.S. economy in 'good shape', too many in poverty

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday the U.S. economy was "overall in good shape", with growth set to accelerate from recent setbacks despite an overvalued dollar, but the Fund warned that too many Americans were living in poverty.

Goldman to lay off 98 New York employees between July and October

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc plans to lay off 98 employees in New York between July and October, according to a filing by the bank with the state's Department of Labor.

New York hedge fund manager Valvani's death ruled suicide

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The death of Sanjay Valvani, a hedge fund manager at Visium Asset Management LP who had been charged last week in a major insider trading case, has been declared a suicide, the New York City medical examiner's office said on Wednesday.

Low mortgage rates boost U.S. home sales to nine-year high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales rose in May to a more than nine-year high amid low mortgage rates, pointing to sustained housing market strength that should keep the economy on solid ground.

Musk sees $1 trillion Tesla as shares drop over SolarCity deal

(Reuters) - Tesla Motors Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Wednesday that the proposed acquisition of SolarCity Corp could eventually push the electric car maker's valuation to $1 trillion, but investors were skeptical.

Volkswagen owners close ranks as investors vent fury over crisis

HANOVER, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen's top shareholders closed ranks behind management on Wednesday, defying a torrent of criticism from smaller investors about the German carmaker's emissions test cheating and its response to the scandal.

Head Of Political Betting At Ladbrokes: "If I Had To Put Money On It, I'd Back Leave"

Earlier today, we pointed out that "Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds" when we quoted Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes who said "Although Ladbrokes has received a higher volume of bets to leave the EU, those making a punt on remain were placing higher financially larger. Shaddick revealed the average stake on a bet to remain was £450, compared to £75 on a bet to leave." As we explained "a few large bettors are skewing the bookie odds dramatically in the favor of Remain, even as the mass of bettors is betting on Leave, albeit with smaller cash amounts. Another way of putting it: a substantially outsized influence by a wealthy minority over the poor majority, just like in every other aspect of life."

Just a few hours later, Shaddick himself validating our observations when in an Op-Ed in the Telegraph he said that "one interesting pattern in the betting for this vote has been that whilst 75 per cent of the money staked has been for Remain, the majority of actual bets have been for Leave. That's because the average bet stake for Remain is around £450, for Leave it's just £70" and concluded that "If I were having a bet today, I think I'd back Leave at 3/1. I still think Remain are the more likely winners, but there's enough uncertainty in this vote to make me think the outsiders have a better chance than the odds imply."

Here is the full Op-Ed by Matthew Shaddick ‎Head of Political Betting at Ladbrokes, originally posted in the Telegraph:

Sterling, Stocks Slammed After TNS Poll Shows Major Lead For "Leave"

Stocks and sterling are sliding once again as a second poll hits showing "leave" leading massively 49% Leave vs 42% Remain...

Using methodology applied to the previous TNS poll (likely voters) gives Leave a 7pt lead. New methodology (and all voters) Leave lead by 2.

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 22, 2016

Pounded...

Slammed...

Charts: Bloomberg

Here Is The "Mad" Thing Brexit Watchers Are Suddenly Obsessing About

As Albert Edwards warned earlier:

"The UK referendum is neck and neck. Commentators think it so close that the deciding factor could be whether it rains on Thursday - with rain seen reducing the Remain vote. How mad is that?"

And one look at the chart of GBPUSD shows he is correct...

As at 1016ET, The BBC reported "YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-EAST ENGLAND"

Issued at 1016 on Wed 22 Jun 2016

Valid from 1800 on Wed 22 Jun to 0600 on Fri 24 Jun.

Although some areas will miss them, potentially intense thundery downpours seem likely to affect parts of the warning area from Wednesday late afternoon or early evening onwards into the early hours of Thursday or Thursday morning. Further scattered thunderstorms are then likely to break out from Thursday afternoon onwards into Thursday night.

It's not the EU, it's the weather stupid!!

Will the "remain" ...

Tesla Buying SolarCity: This Deal Defies Common Sense

Such a transaction has no industrial logic and shows weak governance.

Why H&M Is Still No Bargain

Weak sales more than justify the modest discount on which the Swedish fashion retailer's shares trade.

May 2016 Existing Home Sales Were At the Highest Pace in Over Nine Years

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines for existing home sales say "the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they've accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize". Our analysis of the unadjusted data shows that home sales improved relative to last month, but the rolling averages were unchanged. Sales price rate of growth slowed.

Will McDonald's be displaced by Wendy's as the burger sector leader?

Analysts believe McDonald's may have lost its top spot in the burger sector because of sluggish same-store sales.

The Ratings Game: Priceline's stock jumps to new high for the year after Barclays upgrade

Priceline's stock surges to a 7 1/2-month high after Barclays upgraded the online travel services company, saying investor concerns over last months' profit warning are overblown.

The Wall Street Journal: Kia tops J.D. Power's annual car-quality survey

Detroit auto makers advance in the ranks.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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