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14Jun2016 Market Close: Lots Of Red For Global Markets

Written by Gary

Lots of negative issues facing the market today - mixed signals from lower oil prices, stronger-than-expected retail sales and Brexit. In fact, depending on your choice of glasses - even retail sales could be viewed as up or down.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street falls as Brexit vote becomes major fear

(Reuters) - Wall Street dropped for a fourth straight session on Tuesday as central bank policymakers weighed the health of the U.S. economy and investors worried about an upcoming vote in Britain on whether to leave the European Union.

Fed faces battle to escape world's low interest rate grip

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Evidence that the U.S. neutral rate of interest remains stalled near zero may slow Federal Reserve rate hikes even more than expected, tying the hands of policymakers until a rebound in global demand or other forces raise that key measure of the economy's underlying strength.

DoubleLine's Gundlach says 'central banks are losing control'

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive officer at DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that investors are dropping risky assets and turning to safer securities including Treasuries and gold because they are losing faith in central banks.

Twitter makes $70 million investment in music service SoundCloud: Re/code

(Reuters) - Twitter Inc has invested about $70 million in Berlin-based music service SoundCloud, technology website Re/code reported citing people familiar with the deal.

Wide deal spreads make juicy targets for some investors

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of a number of U.S. companies eyed in high-profile deals are trading significantly below their intended acquisition prices on worries that the deals will die, presenting an opportunity for some big-name investors.

Guilty plea seen for Wall Street scion Caspersen in fraud case

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street executive Andrew Caspersen will likely plead guilty next month to criminal charges over an alleged $150 million fraud scheme, after compulsive gambling drove him to make huge, failed bets against the U.S. stock market, his lawyer said on Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley's Gorman says bank eyeing $1 billion in FICC trading per quarter

(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley is eyeing quarterly revenue of around $1 billion for its fixed income, currencies and commodities trading unit, Chief Executive James Gorman said on Tuesday.

U.S. retail sales point to strong domestic demand

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose strongly in May as Americans bought automobiles and a range of other goods, even as they paid more for gasoline, suggesting that economic growth was gaining steam despite a sharp slowdown in job creation.

Business inventories rise modestly as sales surge

WASHINGTON, June 14 (Reuters) - U.S. business inventories barely rose in April as sales recorded their biggest increase in more than two years, pointing to a slow pace of inventory accumulation that could weigh on economic growth in the second quarter.

Oil Tumbles To $47 Handle After Unexpected Crude Inventory Builds Across The Entire Complex

Oil fell today despite a bullish IEA report cutting its estimate for oil surplus (despite 2 weeks running of increasing rig counts and production and builds in gasoline and distillates last week). With crude inventories down 3 weeks in a row, API's print was expected to come in at -2.33mm barrels but instead built by 1.16mm barrels, sending oil prices lower. Cushing stockpiles were expected to drop 600k barrels (despite Genscape's 234k build estimate) but soared 664k barrels. Gasoline and Distillates both saw the biggest builds since January.

API:



Crude +1.16mm (-2.33mm exp)

Cushing +664k (-600k exp, +234k Genscape)

Gasoline +2.254mm

Distillates +3.725mm

These are across the board builds with Gasoline and Distilklates really ugly...

and crude plunge to a $47 handle...

Charts: Bloomberg

Gold In Euros Surges 6.5% In June and 17% YTD On BREXIT Concerns

Gold in euros has risen another 1.3% today due to deepening BREXIT jitters with just 9 days left until the referendum on June 23. The flight to gold and sell off in euros and sterling came as Irish, UK, European and global stock markets fell sharply.

gold in euros_2016Gold in Euros " 5 Years

Gold in euros has risen from ‚¬1,135/oz to ‚¬1,149.60/oz today and is up 7% in the first 9 trading days of June, from ‚¬1,080/oz to ‚¬1,149.60/oz, as investors diversify into safe haven gold due to concerns Britain will vote to leave the European Union. Should the UK leave, there are real concerns that it will lead to other European nations following suit and see contagion in the Eurozone.

Gold is 17.5% higher in euros year to date " from ‚¬978/oz to ‚¬1,149.70/oz " today due to concerns about the Eurozone and increasing concerns about the global financial system and the global economy.

Gold in sterling has risen even more given BREXIT concerns and is up 10% in the first 10 trading days of June, from £827 to £908/oz, as UK investors diversify into safe haven gold due to concerns Britain will vote to leave the European Union.

A series of BREXIT opinion polls over the weekend strongly suggested Britain could vote to leave the EU, which many fear will likely lead to a fresh wave of turmoil across markets internationally and heightens the real risk of the break up of the European Union.

The Irish stock market and stocks internationally have come under pressure. Ireland's stock market, the ISEQ fell 2.3% yesterday and has fallen 0.6% today to 6,402 as concerns about the impact of BREXIT on Irish c ...

Rant-Of-The-Day: The Low Interest-Rate Fallacy

Submitted by Lance Roebrts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Low-Interest Rate Trap

In this past weekend's commentary, I discussed the failure of the market to hold its breakout above 2100 last week.

"The short-term outlook suggests more vulnerability to selling. Importantly, the markets must hold support at 2080, the short-term moving average, or 2040 which is the recent bottoms of what currently appears to be a potential topping process.

The failure of the markets this week to break, and hold, above 2100 keeps portfolio allocations at current levels. As shown below, the downtrend resistance, on a weekly basis, also coincides with 2040 reinforcing the importance of that support level. Stop loss levels are current set at 2020, and portfolio hedges will be added with a subsequent break of 2000."

SP500-MarketUpdate-061416

The sell-off that started on Friday and continued through Monday also coincided with a sharp rise in market volatility. While the pop in volatility has been more of the "nor ...

Stocks Plunge Most In 4 Months As Yuan Turmoils To 5-Year Lows

Stallone plays Janet Yellen (sarah is 'the market') ahead of tomorrow...

Bunds joining the Swiss and Japanese in negative 10Y yields land was perhaps the biggest news today...

And the market now sees a higher risk of a rate cut tomorrow than a rate hike..

Just how far away is the market from The Fed's idiotic guesses?

Which is ironic since US equities are now unchanged since The Fed raised rates in December...

But European stocks won't stop falling... Portugal, Spain, and Italy down 10% in June so far

Zero Yields, the Fed and 'Brexit,' Oh My!

The Federal Reserve watches Brexit and negative German yields, not just the U.S. economy, as it weighs its own interest-rate policy.

Financial Conditions: Why the Fed Should Raise Rates Soon, But Not Yet

Measures of financial conditions suggest the Fed should remain on hold for now, though perhaps not much longer.

Why Synchrony Financial Spooked the Credit-Card Industry

Synchrony Financial warned of higher-than-expected defaults this year, alarming investors in credit-card issuers.

What We Read Today 14 June 2016

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).

BECOME A GEI MEMBER - IT's FREE!

Every day most of this column ("What We Read Today") is available only to GEI members.

To become a GEI Member simply subscribe to our FREE daily newsletter.

April 2016 Business Sales and Inventories Data Remains Mixed.

Written by Steven Hansen

Econintersect's analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales degraded compared to the previous month. There was a marginal improvement in the rolling averages. Inventory growth was mixed (depending on whether one looked at the unadjusted or adjusted data). The inventory-to-sales ratios remain at recessionary levels.

Market Snapshot: S&P 500, Dow notch longest losing stretch in 4 months as Fed, Brexit loom

U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session on Tuesday with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching their longest losing streak since February as investors grappled with mixed signals from lower oil prices, stronger-than-expected retail sales and geopolitical uncertainty in Europe.

NewsWatch: In aftermath of Orlando shooting, American Medical Association takes a stand

The largest medical professional group's annual meeting occurred as news of the shooting broke.

The Wall Street Journal: Rogue investor Andrew Caspersen likely to plead guilty in July

Prosecutors brought new charges Tuesday against Andrew W.W. Caspersen, a former Wall Street executive accused of gambling away investors' money on stock market bets, alleging he bilked investors, including his own family, out of tens of millions of dollars more than originally thought.

Summary of Economic Releases this Week

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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