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09Jun2016 Market Update: Wall Street Down Fractionally, Bulls Waiting For Rally Continuation, Crude Prices Remain Depressed

Written by Gary

Bank stocks led Wall Street lower this morning, mirroring global markets, as bond markets rallied and oil prices fell. The DOW is down 50 points, WTI crude trading in mid 50's and the US dollar steady at 94. Short-term indicators are neutral and a longer view points to a market correction.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

It was only three weeks ago when the S&P 500 completed a well-formed head-and-shoulders pattern which is widely accepted as a bearish signal among technical analysts Full Story

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 78%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 78%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 63.1%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 49.94
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($OEXA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Following a major market correction, the conditions for safe re-entry are when:
a) Daily $OEXA200R rises above 65%
Secondary Bullish Indicators:
a) RSI is POSITIVE (above 50)
b) Slow STO is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
c) MACD is POSITIVE (black line above red line)
80.00%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 67.93%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 73.20%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 16.78
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.19
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,568

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall St. lower as financials stocks weigh, oil drops

(Reuters) - Bank stocks led Wall Street lower on Thursday, mirroring global markets, as bond markets rallied and oil prices fell.

Verizon's bid for Yahoo's web assets topped by others: source

(Reuters) - Verizon Communications Inc did not submit the highest offer this week in the second round of bidding for Yahoo Inc's core internet assets, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Viacom still pursuing Paramount Studios stake sale: CEO

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Viacom Inc is still looking to sell a minority stake in its Paramount film unit, but objections from controlling shareholder Sumner Redstone have impeded the deal, CEO Philippe Dauman told investors on Thursday.

Tesla Motors introduces two less costly Model S versions

(Reuters) - Electric carmaker Tesla Motors Inc said on Thursday it would offer two slightly lower-priced versions of its electric Model S sedan, starting at $66,000 in the U.S. market.

U.S. economic outlook brightens on upbeat job, inventory data

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained strength in the labor market despite a sharp slowdown in hiring last month.

Ford warns of Brexit risks to its business

BERLIN (Reuters) - Ford warned on Thursday that potential future investment in the United Kingdom could be at risk if a vote to leave the European Union leads to a significant deterioration in the country's business environment.

Lazard in control as momentum builds for Takata solution: source

TOKYO (Reuters) - Investment bank Lazard has sidelined the founding family of Takata Corp as momentum builds to a market-based solution for the Japanese air bag maker embroiled in the auto industry's biggest safety recall, a person briefed on the process told Reuters.

Vodafone to merge New Zealand unit with Sky Network in $2.4 billion deal

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON (Reuters) - Vodafone PLC said it was merging its New Zealand unit with the country's biggest pay-TV firm, Sky Network Television , in a $2.4 billion deal that will enable it to offer customers packages of entertainment, broadband and mobile.

Apple revamps App Store, may not win over developers

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc announced a series of long-awaited enhancements to its App Store on Wednesday, but the new features may not ease concerns of developers and analysts who say that the App Store model - and the very idea of the single-purpose app - has seen its best days.

Pity Poor China: There's No Easy Fix To The S-Curve

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

This decline is inevitable in fast-expanding economies that depended on export growth and investment booms.

The fundamental context of China's economy is that it has traced out an S-Curve - as did previous fast-developing nations such as Japan and South Korea.

Gordon Long and I discuss why there's no easy fix to the S-Curve in our new video discussion Bull in the China Shop (35:25).

The S-Curve can be likened to a rocket's trajectory: first, there's an ignition phase, as the fuel of financialization, cheap labor and untapped productive capacity is ignited.

The boost phase lasts as long as credit-fueled production and consumption expand rapidly.

In the boost phase, investors and financial authorities can do no wrong. The high growth rate of credit and production overwhelms all other factors, as the virtuous cycle of expanding profits and production increases wages which then support further expansion of credit and consumption which then supports more production, and so on.

A vast tide of foreign investment fuels an equally vast expansion of fixed capital assets such as factories and new homes. (The chart below depicts the astronomical amounts of new square footage constructed in China every year.)

But then the fuel of financialization is consumed, and the previously fast-growing economy slows to stall speed. Depending on how much leverage, corrup ...

EIA Weekly Oil Report Analysis and Commentary 6-9-2016 (Video)

By EconMatters

There are so many components to properly analyzing the oil market, then you have to prioritize said components, to ultimately make money in the oil market. There is far too much simplistic thinking going on in analysis and coverage of the oil market in my opinion.

 EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle

Just 3 Charts

What happens next?

FX Carry is fading...

Bond safe havens are bid...

Investors are hedging in size...

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Gold is soaring...

Why Investors Can't be Complacent About Inflation Let Downs

Forecasters have consistently over-estimated inflation since the start of 2015, but markets may be discounting predictions too much.

Oil and China: 'Teapots' Mean Real Demand Not So Stout

So-called teapot refineries have made it even trickier to peer through China's already muddy oil-demand picture.

Time to Cut Power to This Hong Kong Lighting Play

Tech Pro Technology's rebuttal to criticism doesn't address the uncomfortable suggestion that its stock is its currency, and its high share price is integral to the business.

April 2016 Wholesale Sales Improves? Inventory Growth Above Expectations.

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines say wholesale sales were up month-over-month with inventory levels remaining at levels associated with recessions. Our analysis shows an improving trend of the 3 month averages but we see deceleration with this month's data.

Your Digital Self: Nanobots are waiting in the wings to cure cancer and clean up ocean pollution

Nanotechnology is being developed to help humanity, says Jurica Dujmović.

Metals Stocks: Gold futures climb to highest levels since mid-May

Gold futures rise for a second straight session to trade at their highest levels since mid-May.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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