econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



12May2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Futures Are Fractionally Higher, WTI Crude Melts Higher Along With The US Dollar, Sudden Market Reversals Possible

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are fractionally up this morning (SPY +.6%) helped by a rise in oil prices, after the International Energy Agency indicated that we could see a dramatic reduction in the supply glut later this year. WTI crude has climbed into the high 46's and the US dollar continues to trend higher. Markets are expected to open higher even though yesterday's indicators suggested otherwise. Keep a sharp lookout.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 0.94% while Germany's DAX is up 0.55% and London's FTSE 100 is up 0.39%.

ENERGIES

June Nymex crude oil was higher overnight after the International Energy Agency said that global oil stocks will experience a 'dramatic reduction' in the second half of the year due to strong demand and falling supply by some major producers. A series of production outages around the globe have also taken barrels out of the market in recent weeks, providing support to prices.

Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes this year's rally, the reaction high crossing at 48.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 46.78. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 48.02. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.13. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 39.00.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Futures higher a day after consumer stocks-led rout

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Thursday, a day after a rout led by consumer stocks led to the Dow post its biggest one-day drop in three months.

Fed to delay rate hike until September on tame inflation outlook: Reuters poll

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely wait until September before raising interest rates again, stretching to nine months the time since its first hike in nearly a decade, as it waits for clear signs inflation is picking up, a Reuters poll found.

Germany's Bayer considering bid for Monsanto: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - Germany's Bayer AG is exploring a bid for U.S. seed company Monsanto Co , Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Nissan buying $2.2 billion controlling stake in scandal-hit Mitsubishi Motors

YOKOHAMA, Japan (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co has agreed to buy a 34 percent stake in Mitsubishi Motors Corp, taking de facto control with a $2.2 billion bet that bails out its smaller, scandal-hit rival.

U.S. crude hits six-month high after IEA sees tighter supply

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices hit a six-month high on Thursday, supported by data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showing tightening supply, in addition to a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories.

Sharp names Foxconn executive as CEO to spearhead revival

TOKYO/TAIPEI (Reuters) - Japan's Sharp Corp has named a top Foxconn executive as CEO and said it would seal a $3.5 billion stake sale to the Taiwanese firm ahead of schedule, as the display maker seeks a return to profit in the face of slowing smartphone sales.

Exclusive: Hyundai to make low-cost SUVs to battle Chinese rivals - sources

SEOUL (Reuters) - Hyundai Motor and affiliate Kia Motors plan to launch three low-cost sport utility vehicles (SUVs) in China, their biggest market, from next year, people with knowledge of the plans told Reuters.

Kerry seeks to soothe European bank nerves over Iran trade

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Europe's top banks they have nothing to fear from resuming business with Iran, as long as they make proper checks on trade partners and pursue "legitimate business".

Chesapeake says swapped debt for 4 percent of equity over past week

(Reuters) - Debt-laden Chesapeake Energy Corp , the second-largest U.S. natural gas producer, said on Thursday it had issued or agreed to issue about 4 percent of its outstanding shares in exchange for debt over the past week.

Full-Blown Fearmongering: Bank Of England Warns Of Recession, "Sharp" Sterling Fall If UK Leaves Europe

While the Bank of England voted unanimously 9-0 to keep rates on hold at 0.5%, what the market was far more focused on the BOE's latest gloomy scenarios about what would happen should the UK vote for Brexit on June 23. The BOE did not disappoint, and cautioned that that sterling could fall "sharply" and unemployment would probably rise, while in the press conference after the announcement BOE governor and former Goldmanite Mark Carney went all the way warning Brexit "could possibly lead to recession."

That this takes place just days after UK's David Cameron warned of a World War threat should the UK leave the EU is not surprising: after all the whole point is to scare the UK population into submission and into a vote to stay in the EU.

Among the warnings from the BOE's fire and brimstone forecast was that the "Sterling is also likely to depreciate further, perhaps sharply. This combination of influences ... could lead to a materially lower path for growth and notably higher path for inflation."

Which is ironic: in a world in which every central bank is scrambling to crush its own currency, shouldn't the BOE then welcome any event that will send the sterling "sharply" lower? Questions, questions...

Meanwhile, the torrent of doom and gloom "if Brexit happens" continues. As Reuters puts it, "British voters have faced a raft of reports from the government and international bodies in recent weeks warning of the dangers of leaving, and the International Monetary Fund is expected to weigh in again on Friday." All of them have been uniformly bearish which likely means that the outcome from a Brexit would be quite favorable.

Earlier this week, Britain's National Institute for Economic and Social Rese ...

Why Hedge Funds Have Rarely Been More Bearish: Highlights From The SALT Conference

Following last week's Sohn Conference, where the overarching theme was one of prevailing bearishness topped by Stanley Druckenmiller's near-apocalyptic forecast that only gold will be left standing after all confidence evaporates in the "magic people" known as central bankers, yesterday some 1,800 hedge fund industry executives gathered in Las Vegas at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference or SALT, where the prevalent concern about the future of the world continued, driven primarily by worries about China.

As Bloomberg puts it, the mood "contrasts with last year's meeting, where many money managers expressed confidence in China. Last May, Passport Capital's John Burbank -- now a China bear -- predicted that China would come through its economic slowdown œstrong and positive. Michael Novogratz, who at the time ran Fortress Investment Group LLC's macro fund business, predicted that the country was on the brink of œone of the greatest bull markets we've seen.

Not so much this year. The conflict of opinion culminated during a "fiery exchange" between money managers Emanuel Friedman, Milton Berg and Don Brownstein "broke with the polite decorum" on the topic was China.

Friedman, co-founder of hedge fund EJF Capital, said he was reminded of overblown reactions to the late 1990s Asian financial crisis: œPeople said, 'Well Korea, it's finished, it's collapsed. People are in the streets. '

œThe issue is not that, shot back fellow panelist Berg of MB Advisors. œThe issue is not that! Friedm ...

Regulators Want To Know What Goldman Was Doing In The Panama Papers Database

Since the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) released what is referred to as the "Panama Papers", there has been a flurry of activity taking place to see just who was involved, and to what extent.

Earlier this week, the ICIJ released a searchable database containing nearly 214,000 offshore entities created in 21 jurisdictions to make it easier for those who wish to continue to dig through the data.

It turns out that New York State's financial regulator, the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) did want to search the database. What investigators found from the published database and other leaked documents is that none other than Goldman Sachs and three other banks that are licensed by the state of New York had set up Panamanian shell companies. The other banks are BNP Paribas SA, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Standard Chartered Plc according to Bloomberg.

As it did with 13 other banks last month (including Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, Commerzbank, ABN Amro Group, and Societe Generale), the NYDFS sent a letter to Goldman asking the bank to describe any internal or external investigations under way that relate to Mossack Fonseca or the shell companies it sponsored, including any probes launched by regulators in the U.S. or abroad.

Frontrunning: May 12



Brazil's Rousseff undone by hubris, economic missteps (Reuters)

Trump's Early Backers on Capitol Hill See Their Profile Raised (WSJ)

Oil prices rise toward six-month high, tightening supply (Reuters)

EIA says outlook for oil brightens as output disruptions erode surplus (Reuters)

Investors Fleeing $9 Trillion of Negative Yields Fuel Bond Binge (BBG)

Beaten-Up Hedge Fund Billionaires Reminisce About 'Golden Age' (BBG)

Hong Kong first-quarter economic growth likely weakest in 4 years (Reuters)

Gold Fund Buying Frenzy Spurs Demand to Second-Highest Ever (BBG)

Voters, lawmakers resist French government over labor reform (Reuters)

Blackstone Is Pulling the Plug on Online Consumer Loans (BBG)

Theranos Executive Sunny Balwani to Depart Amid Regulatory Probes (

Spring Hasn't Sprung for Wall Street's Bond Traders

Bond-trading volumes rose in April, but big Wall Street banks remain under pressure

Untold Story That Could Revive Autohome Bidding War

Chinese car website Autohome is increasingly looking undervalued and its shareholders are looking underpaid.

Why Zurich Insurance Group Needs a Lot of Patience

The Swiss insurer has a new chief executive, but it isn't yet clear what he means for shareholders.

07 May 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Worsened. 62 Consecutive Weeks Of Initial Claims Below 300,000

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg) were 263,000 to 275,000 (consensus 267,000), and the Department of Labor reported 294,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 258,000 (reported last week as 258,000) to 268,250. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Economic Report: U.S. import prices rise 0.3% for second straight month

The cost the U.S. paid for imported goods rose 0.3% in April, largely because of higher oil prices.

Economic Report: Jobless claims surge to 14-month high of 294,000

The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in early May jumped for a third week in a row to 294,000, hitting a 14-month high and adding to evidence that the U.S. labor market may have weakened.

Outside the Box: How U.S. and European energy companies can profit from Venezuela's crisis

Venezuela's Petrocaribe policy is no longer the boon it once seemed to be for Caribbean nations. That's creating an opportunity for U.S. energy companies.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

leading Stock Positions

Leading Stock Quotes powered by Investing.com

Current Commodity Prices


Commodities are powered by Investing.com

Current Currency Crosses

The Forex Quotes are powered by Investing.com.



To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.





Econintersect Live Market

search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Consumers Carry Weak GDP Number Out of the Red
The Theory of the Monetary Circuit: A Critique
News Blog
August 2016 Personal Consumption and Income Year-over-Year Growth Slows.
Rail Week Ending 24 September 2016: Data Is Mixed
Infographic Of The Day: Global Energy Efficiency
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Lower, Oil Soft, Japan Deflation Strengthens, Trade Backlash, Trump Fades, Veto Override Reconsidered, DB Could Take Down Merkel And Euro, Germany's "Adolfina" And More
What Are British People Most Proud Of
Trust In Mass Media Erodes
Shimon Peres Was An Israeli Nationalist First And A Peacemaker Second
Guessing Game: Valuations Of Trump's Fortune
What We Read Today 29 September 2016
This Mushroom Starts Killing You Before You Even Realize It
August 2016 Median Household Income Has Declined From The Beginning Of The Year
August 2016 Pending Home Sales Index Declines?
24 September 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims: Rolling Averages Continue to Improve.
Investing Blog
Are You A Trader Or Investor?
Investing.com Technical Summary 29 September 2016
Opinion Blog
First: 'Over-Population End-of Times' Now: 'Shrinking Population Disaster'
The Federal Reserve Note
Precious Metals Blog
Where Silver Prices Are Headed Now After Fed's Latest Inaction
Live Markets
30Sep2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Worries Over Failing Deutsche Bank Overshadow Green US Market Open, WTI Crude Prices Recover Somewhat, Investors Concerned That Japans Deflation Will Spread To US
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved