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04May2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Futures Tumble Again Ahead Of Earnings, WTI Crude Rising Off Support, Short-Term Indicators Very Bearish

Written by Gary

U.S. stock index futures have slipped fractionally into the red, ahead of a bevy of big-name earnings today. ADP says 156,000 people were added to private sector payrolls in April. The estimate was for 196,000. The U.S. dollar index is up slightly, as the greenback recovers from a 16-month low and crude prices are also recovering. Markets are expected to open lower.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.7% to 20524. China -0.1% to 2991. India -0.5% to 25102.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.2%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.7%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude +0.1% to $43.71. Gold -1.1% to $1277.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.79%

Today's Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 International Trade
8:30 Productivity and Costs
8:30 Treasury Refunding Quarterly Announcement
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

World stocks retreat for second day on growth worries

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks fell for the second successive day on Wednesday and metals prices declined, pressured by signs of a renewed and prolonged downturn in global growth.

U.S. oil industry bankruptcy wave nears size of telecom bust

HOUSTON (Reuters) - The rout in crude prices is snowballing into one of the biggest avalanches in the history of corporate America, with 59 oil and gas companies now bankrupt after this week's filings for creditor protection by Midstates Petroleum and Ultra Petroleum .

Time Warner revenue boosted by Turner, HBO

(Reuters) - Time Warner Inc, the owner of CNN and Cartoon Network, reported a slightly higher-than-expected 2.5 percent rise in quarterly revenue as subscription revenue rose at its Turner Broadcasting unit and cable channel Home Box Office.

Exclusive: Target gets tough with vendors to speed up supply chain

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Discount retailer Target Corp is cracking down on suppliers as part of a multi-billion dollar overhaul to speed up its supply chain and better compete with rivals including Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Amazon.com Inc .

Oil steadies around $45 after slide, Canada wildfire supports

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil steadied around $45 a barrel on Wednesday as reduced production in Canada's oil sands region lent support, although expectations U.S. crude inventories will rise further from a record capped gains.

Janus's Bill Gross: 'Helicopter money' is coming in a year or so

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The next big monetary and fiscal policy move should include an airdrop of money from helicopters to stimulate the U.S. economy, says Bill Gross, a portfolio manager at Janus Capital Group Inc .

Biotech stock swoon sparks buyout interest: investor

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A brutal start to the year for biotech stocks could pave the way for more deal-making in the sector, with premiums of potentially 50 percent to 100 percent above depressed share prices, according to a top healthcare investor.

Teen apparel chain Aeropostale files for bankruptcy protection

(Reuters) - Struggling teen apparel retailer Aeropostale Inc filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Wednesday, succumbing to years of losses as shoppers moved on to fast-fashion retailers and online competitors.

Exclusive: Pfizer approaches Medivation about potential takeover - sources

(Reuters) - Pfizer Inc has approached U.S. cancer drug maker Medivation Inc to express interest in an acquisition, raising the possibility of a bid rivaling a $9.3 billion offer by Sanofi SA , people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

Zandi's "Job Creation Machine" Stalls As ADP Employment Growth Worst In 3 Years

Against expectations of a 195k gain, ADP reported just 156k job growth in April with manufacturing losing jobs once again and services job growth clowing quickly to catch down to such negative indicators as ISM Services Employment. This is the worst headline print since April 2013. From last week's job-creation-machine firinmg on all cylinders, Mark Zandi is now more cautious - "The job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors. One month does not make a trend, but this bears close watching as the financial market turmoil earlier in the year may have done some damage to business hiring."

Overall this is the worst print since April 2013...

As Servcies jobs start to fade...

Manufacturing lost jobs once again (after a brief bounce)...

Goods-producing employment dropped by 11,000 jobs in April, down from a downwardly revised 5,000 in March. The construction industry added 14,000 jobs, which ...

Silver Bullion Market Has Key New Player - China Replaces JP Morgan

Silver Bullion Market Has Key New Player " China Replaces JP Morgan

The silver bullion market has a key new player " Enter the Dragon. The Shanghai Futures Exchange in China is replacing JP Morgan bank and its clients as the most significant new source of demand according to a very interesting blog with some great charts and tables published by SRSrocco Report yesterday.

JP-Morgan-vs-SHFE-Silver-Inventories-NEw

According to the report:

The days of JP Morgan controlling the silver market may be numbered as a new player in the silver market has arrived. For the past several years, JP Morgan held the most silver on a public exchange in the world. While the LBMA may hold (or did hold) more silver, their stockpiles are not made public.

Regardless, JP Morgan held the most silver at nearly 74 million oz (Moz) in its warehouse, up until recently. Over the past two month, JP Morgan's silver inventories have fallen nearly 7 Moz to 67.1 Moz today:

JP-Morgan-Silver-Stocks-050316

As I mentioned in my previous article, Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Move Coming?, JP Morgan increased their silver inventories from 4 Moz in April 2011 to 69.4 Moz April 19, 2016. However, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silve ...

Singapore's Surprise

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a further nominal appreciation of the Singapore dollar would not be in the cards. Many interpreted this as a currency war maneuver (read: competitive devaluation) intended to promote exports.

That interpretation is wrong. MAS abandoned its policy of currency appreciation, which was designed to stop the importation of inflation, because it was no longer necessary. As for using a weak currency to promote exports, it does not work that way in Singapore. Indeed, the accompanying chart shows that a weak Singapore dollar is associated with a weak, not strong, export growth.

It always pays to take a look at the data.

Aeropostale Files Chapter 11: Latest Retail Bankruptcy After American Apparel, Cache, Wet Seal And Quiksilver

Teen retailer Aeropostale, a company once seen as a competitor to Abercrombie & Fitch, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing assets of $354 million and liabilities of $390 million. The company experienced an atrocious fiscal 2015, reporting a net loss of $136.9 million in a year in which sales declined 18%.

Soon after reporting full year results, the company had its stock delisted from the NYSE, and overnight filed for bankruptcy in order to "optimize its store footprint, access additional tools to shed or renegotiate burdensome contracts, resolve its ongoing disputes with Sycamore partners, and achieve long-term financial stability."

The retailer has secured a $160 million commitment from Crystal Financial, LLC to provide DIP financing, and has an initial plan to close 154 out of roughly 800 stores.

The decline was swift. The brand was established in 1987, went public in 2002, and by 2010 it had a market cap of nearly $3 billion. However, by January 2015 the company of 21,000 employees had posted losses in its last three fiscal years, and with 2015 being the fourth consecutive year of losses, its market cap imploded to just $2.9 million.

Two issues that accelerated the b ...

Apple: What Will Make the Stock Tick Again

As Apple's recent share-price travails show, the tech giant needs to be about more than just the iPhone. But the company faces challenges in trying to diversify its business. In that regard, the performance of the Apple Watch is telling.

What It Takes for Royal Dutch Shell to Break Even

Shell says it will do œwhatever it takes to balance its cash flows in an era of lower oil prices. There is still much work to be done.

SocGen Vs BNP: How to Reel In a Rival

BNP Paribas has commanded a valuation lead over French rival Société Générale. It is time to challenge the assumptions behind that gap.

Europe Markets: European stocks slump after earnings deluge

European stock markets are dragged down, as investors assess a mixed bag of corporate news, with shares of Dialog Semiconductor and London Stock Exchange Group each tanking around 10%.

London Markets: FTSE 100 heads for 3rd straight loss as shares of LSE, BHP tumble

Losses for LSE, miner BHP and grocer Sainsbury's are helping to pull the FTSE 100 into the red.

The Wall Street Journal: Disney taps its investment in Vice Media to help bolster ESPN

ESPN and Vice Media are teaming up to make shows together and swap content onto each other's TV channels and digital platforms, deepening the relationship between the sports network's owner, Walt Disney Co., and the youth-focused media company.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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