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03May2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Futures Fractionally Lower, Weak Chinese Economic Data Send Investors To The Worry House, Crude Prices In The Low 44's, US Dollar Looking Positive

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are fractionally lower this morning due to weak Chinese economic data that renewed concerns over the world's economy. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Markets are expected to open lower and market weakness may prevail throughout the session.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are broadly lower today with shares in Germany off the most. The DAX is down 1.76% while France's CAC 40 is off 1.51% and London's FTSE 100 is lower by 0.98%.

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -2% to 20645. China +1.9% to 2993. India -0.8% to 25230.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.2%. Paris -1.7%. Frankfurt -1.9%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.6%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.7%. Crude -1.3% to $44.21. Gold +0.2% to $1298.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -6 bps to 1.80%

Today's Economic Calendar

Auto Sales
8:30 Gallup US ECI
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:30 Fed's Mester speech
7:00 PM Fed's Lockhart: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Pfizer revenue beats on Hospira acquisition

(Reuters) - U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc reported first-quarter revenue that blew past analysts' average estimate, boosted by sales of its new treatments for cancer and its Hospira acquisition.

Halliburton adjusted profit beats estimate, helped by cost cuts

(Reuters) - Halliburton Co, the world's No.2 oilfield services provider, reported a higher-than-expected adjusted profit for the first quarter as deep cost cuts helped cushion the impact of a drop in drilling and completion activity.

Futures lower after weak Chinese economic data

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were sharply lower on Tuesday after weak Chinese economic data raised concerns about the health of the global economy.

Tencent venture poaches Google talent as Chinese tech firms pile into autos

BEIJING (Reuters) - An automaker launched last year by firms including tech giant Tencent Holdings Ltd has poached autonomous driving personnel from Google and Daimler AG, marking China's latest high-profile hires in the race to make self-driving cars.

Fiat Chrysler U.S. April auto sales rise 6 percent on truck, SUVs

DETROIT (Reuters) - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles on Tuesday reported that April U.S. auto sales rose 6 percent, setting the stage for the industry to meet analysts' expectations for the highest April sales since 2005.

Sprint forecasts jump in full-year operating income

(Reuters) - Sprint Corp, the No.4 U.S. wireless carrier, forecast a jump in full-year operating income as it continues to slash costs to offset the heavy discounts it had offered to attract customers.

GE wants become big player in offshore wind, eyes Adwen takeover

PARIS (Reuters) - General Electric wants to become a major player in the offshore wind industry and is interested in buying the Areva-Gamesa offshore joint venture Adwen, GE's new head of renewables said on Tuesday.

Companies put $221 billion into low-tax jurisdictions in 2015: U.N.

GENEVA (Reuters) - Companies put $221 billion into countries with low tax last year, chiefly Luxembourg and the Netherlands, while $72 billion of investment went into two British tax havens - the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands, the U.N. said on Tuesday.

Ackman defends Valeant, hints at more changes

BOSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor William Ackman on Monday mounted a vigorous defense of Valeant Pharmaceuticals , ruling out any sale of the drug company's "crown jewel" assets but saying price cuts and even a new name may be in its future.

Aussie Dollar Crashes Through Key Support After "Surprise" Rate Cut

As a major leg of many carry trades, the collapse of the Aussie Dollar in the last week has sent ripples through many risk-on positions. Following last week's plunge in inflation to record lows, one would have assumed that expectations for a 'stimulating' rate-cut were baked in to some extent (as AUD plunged then), but this morning's surprise RBA move has sparked another leg down in the commodity currency, breaking below a crucial uptrend off the January lows as the commodity currency decouples from exuberance in Chinese metals...

Just last week this happened... record low inflation

Which triggered this...


*RBA MAY RATE CUT ODDS RISE TO 40% FROM 14% YDAY, FUTURES SHOW

A pre-emptive May cut is surely now a real possibility, said Gareth
Berry, a foreign-exchange and rates strategist in Singapore at
Macquarie Bank Ltd. œAt the latest, an August cut is now
inevitable. That spells the end of this three-month old Australian
dollar rebound, and the downtrend can now resume in earnest.

But apparently that was not priced in...

Breaking AUD below a key uptrend...

Is Craig Wright The Creator Of Bitcoin? Frisby and Matonis On Satoshi Nakamoto

Is Craig Wright The Creator Of Bitcoin? Frisby and Matonis On 'Satoshi Nakamoto'

Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist, self-declared cyber security expert and entrepreneur, has claimed to be the creator of Bitcoin, the elusive 'Satoshi Nakamoto'.

Bitcoin

Yesterday, he published a blog post offering what was claimed to be cryptographic proof, backed up by other information, to make his case. Along with the BBC and GQ, The Economist had access to Mr Wright before the publication of his post. The BBC are definitively saying that Wright is Nakamoto. The Economist is being more cautious and their conclusion is that he could well be Mr Nakamoto, œbut that nagging questions remain.

œIn fact, it may never be possible to prove beyond reasonable doubt who really created bitcoin. Whether people, particularly bitcoin cognoscenti, actually believe Mr Wright will depend greatly on what he does next, after going public.

Wright penned his own blog post claiming to be Nakamoto but also of importance is the fact that Bitcoin Foundation chief scientist Gavin Andresen " a man that used to be the bitcoin project lead and one of the most respected experts in the bitcoin community " wrote that he, too, believed Wright was the elusive bitcoin c ...

"This Has Been The Longest Selling Streak In History" - 'Smart Money' Sells For Record 14 Consecutive Weeks

When yesterday Bank of America presented "Another Sign That Wall Street Doesn't Believe The Rally" noting that its "Sell Side Indicator, a measure of Wall Street's bullishness on stocks, fell by 1ppt to 51.9, its lowest level in over a year" it tried to spin this "pervasive bearishness as a 'reliable contrarian indicator'." Alas, for now it is merely an indicator of precisely what it is: that the smart money still refuses to believe the rally, and following a record 13 weeks of smart money selling, overnight BofA reported what is now becoming painfully farcical:

"Last week, during which the S&P 500 fell 1.3% in its biggest weekly decline since early Feb., BofAML clients were net sellers of US equities for the 14th consecutive week, in the amount of $2.8bn. As we noted last week, this has been the longest uninterrupted selling streak in our data history (since '08) "previously the longest streak was 12 weeks (in late '10)."

Helpfully, BofA's Jill Carey Hall writes that "persistent sales suggest clients have continued to doubt the rally's sustainability." She is correct, and with the market finally starting to roll over once again as central banks now demonstrate their powerlessness on an almost daily basis, perhaps this time the smart money will finally be right.

BofA breaks down the selling as follows: "net sales continue to be led by institutional clients, while hedge funds and private clients w ...

UBS: Timid Clients Kick Profits to the Side

A surge in new money at the Swiss bank didn't help profits as trading activity still buckled.

Why China's Big Banks Aren't Looking So Large

China's behemoth banks "among the biggest in the world by assets "have stopped getting much bigger. But that doesn't mean risks surrounding them have subsided.

Valeant and Buffett: Looking Past the War of Words

Harsh words won't further damage Valeant shareholders. Changes to earnings expectations might be a different story.

March 2016 CoreLogic Home Prices Year-over-Year Growth Rate Now 6.7%.

CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the USA are up 6.7 % year-over-year year-over-year (reported up 2.1 % month-over-month). Last month's 6.8 % year-over-year gain was revised downward to 5.9 % [revisions to previous months lately have been significantly downward so I would not take the 6.8 % to the bank]. CoreLogic HPI is used in the Federal Reserves's Flow of Funds to calculate the values of residential real estate.

Bearish Blogger Sentiment Entering May 2016

The latest Blogger Sentiment Poll released 02 May 2016 by Ticker Sense is more bearish than it was at the beginning of April 2016.

Mark Hulbert: Why the Nasdaq's latest bear-market signal has no bite

The NASDAQ Composite is losing steam, but stock investors shouldn't necessarily go to cash, writes Mark Hulbert.

Need to Know: The 'sell-in-May' strategy that's been working for 10 years

It's setting up to be a rocky session for global markets, sparked by a rate cut out of Australia that has rattled investors

Earnings Outlook: What to expect from Whole Foods earnings

Whole Foods is trying to turn around its business amid fears of cannibalization with its new 365 stores and competition with other grocers.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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