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14Apr2016 Market Update: SP500 Breaks Above 2085, Commodities Yawn At The Event, Volume Low, Must Be The HFT Algo Computers At Work

Written by Gary

The markets opened higher, took the morning dip and then rose back into the green. The SP500 rose a point above the 2085 resistance and is melting higher. Analysts and investors alike are watching with abated breath to see if the SP500 can remain above 2085. The Crude prices have been quietly trading in the high 41's and the US dollar trading more or less sideways which brings up the validly of the Spooz' rise.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The S&P 500 is up 0.17% while the IPC gains 0.03%. The Bovespa is off 1.19%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 77%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 72%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 58.6% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +36.52 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 61.77% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 65.44% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 77.40% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 17.99 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.44 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,367

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Tame U.S. inflation supports Fed's cautious rate policy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices barely rose in March and underlying inflation slowed, suggesting little urgency for a cautious Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near term.

Wall Street inches higher after big bank earnings

(Reuters) - Wall Street inched higher in muted trading on Thursday, propped up by financial stocks, as investors turn their focus on corporate earnings season.

No end in sight for energy pain at Wells Fargo, Bank of America

(Reuters) - Troubles in the U.S. oil industry amplified profit pressures on Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America Corp on Thursday as rising bad loans added to a tough climate for trading bonds and currencies, along with persistently low interest rates.

Fed to raise rates twice this year but conviction fading: Reuters poll

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice this year, most likely in June, but the probability has faded on signs of a weak start to the year, inflation that is still tame and a brittle global backdrop, a Reuters poll showed.

BMW recalls 7 Series models due to air bag issue

(Reuters) - BMW AG is recalling its new flagship 7-series luxury limousine due to a potential air bag deployment issue, the company said on Thursday.

Apple to donate a portion of App Sales to support the environment

(Reuters) - Apple Inc will donate sales of select apps in April to the World Wildlife Fund amid its growing focus on environmental issues, the company announced.

How Saudi Arabia plans to shake up its economy

RIYADH/DUBAI (Reuters) - In late February, several hundred Saudi officials, company executives and foreign consultants gathered in a luxury Riyadh hotel to discuss how Saudi Arabia's economy could survive an era of cheap oil.

U.S. says China to scrap some export subsidies

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China has agreed to scrap export subsidies on a range of products from metals to agriculture and textiles, the U.S. Trade Representative said on Thursday, in a step by Beijing to reduce trade frictions with the United States.

Fed's Lockhart sets high bar for possible June rate hike

CHICAGO (Reuters) - A top U.S. monetary policymaker on Thursday made it clear he would not support a rate hike this month and set a high bar for supporting any move even at the Federal Reserve's June meeting.

Microsoft Sues Obama Administration "To Keep Secrecy The Exception, Not The Rule"

The "most transparent administration ever" appears to be making no friends in the tech industry. Following its debacle with Apple, the Obama administration now faces a suit from Microsoft that, in their words, stands up for "customers' constitutional and fundamental rights - rights that help protect privacy and promote free expression." As Microsoft's Brad Smith notes, with rare exceptions consumers and businesses have a right to know when the government accesses their emails or records, and the suit centers around the fact that since cloud storage accelerated, it's becoming routine for the U.S. government to issue orders that require email providers to keep these types of legal demands secret. Microsoft believe that this goes too far.

As Bloomberg reports, Microsoft Corp. sued the U.S. Justice Department in an attempt to stop the government from forcing it to turn its customers' e-mails and other data over to law enforcement without their knowledge.

The lawsuit, which names the Justice Department and Attorney General Loretta Lynch, ratchets up the pressure by technology companies against the U.S. government and echoes a struggle by Apple Inc. to protect its customers' privacy by refusing to undermine the encryption on its iPhones. Microsoft has been fighting the U.S. over customer privacy and its ability to disclose what it's had to turn over to investigators for more than two years.

Microsoft called the 1986 Electronic Communications Privacy Act unconstitutional, citing its own First Amendment free speech rights and its customers&rsqu ...

Deutsche Bank Admits It Also Rigged Gold Prices, Agrees To Expose Other Manipulators

Well, that didn't take long.

Earlier today when we reported the stunning news that DB has decided to "turn" against the precious metals manipulation cartel by first settling a long-running silver price fixing lawsuit which in addition to "valuable monetary consideration" said it would expose the other banks' rigging having also "agreed to provide cooperation to plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages, and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement" we said "since this is just one of many lawsuits filed over the past two years in Manhattan federal court in which investors accused banks of conspiring to rig rates or prices in financial and commodities markets, we expect that now that DB has "turned" that much more curious information about precious metals rigging will emerge, and will confirm what the "bugs" had said all along: that the precious metals market has been rigged all along."

This was confirmed moments ago when Reuters reported that Deutsche Bank has also reached a settlement in US litigation alleging the bank conspired to fix gold prices. In other words, hours after admitting it was rigging the silver market, it did the same for gold.

Some more headlines from Reuters:

Reaches settlement in U.S. litigation alleging it conspired to fix gold prices.

Plaintiffs' lawyers, in filing, say Deutsche Bank has signed a settlement term sheet

Plaintiffs' lawyers say are negotiating formal settlement agreement that would be presented for judge's approval later

Plaintiffs' lawyers say settlement contemplates a monetary payment by Deutsche Bank

Gold settlement follows similar accord involving alleged silver price-fixing that was disclosed on Wednesday

Most importantly, as the actua ...

Have Oil Stocks Recovered Their "Line In The Sand"?

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

A key index of oil stocks has moved back above its (temporarily broken) 30-year up trendline...for now.

"If the XOI can reclaim that broken trendline, perhaps it can once again serve as support for the oil stock index as it did for 30 years. Not to mention, it would look like a compelling "false breakdown". These factors could serve as a springboard to a major, sustainable rally in oil stocks." - March 8 post: The Line In The (Oil) Sand

As modern trendlines go, the 30-year up trendline in the NYSE Oil & Gas Index, a.k.a., XOI, is among the most prolific (behind perhaps only the decades-long down trendlines in 30-year U.S. treasury yields and the Japanese Nikkei 225.) The uptrend in the XOI (on a log scale) began just after the inception of the index in 1986 and connects the 2003 lows and the lows of last August, September and December. The trendline was finally broken in January, paving the way for an 18% plunge in about 2 weeks.

Subsequently, the XOI bounced back to test the underside of the trendline, prompting our March 8 post. In the post, we suggested that those trying to decipher whether or not oil stocks had bottomed might be well served to simply focus on whether the XOI could reclaim its broken trendline or not. If not, expect continued weakness with potential further new lows. If it was successful in reclaiming the line, then the bullish potential was considerable, as mentioned in the opening paragraph. As of yesterday, it appears as if the XOI has reclaimed its broken 30-ye ...

Fed Admits "Won't Stop The Music"

During a post-presentation Q&A in Chicago this morning, Atlanta Fed head Dennis Lockhart warned investors that Brexit is a notable risk and was a consideration within Fed policy meetings (along with every global nation's problems, we presume). However, it was his follow-up comment that has created notable chatter among the "mandate-driven","data-dependent" Fed watching community when he said that any Brexit issues "shouldn't stop the music" for The Fed.




So did The Fed just admit that it is indeed the Pied-Piper of the markets?

This Japanese Tech Stock Is a Ripe Target for Activists

Kyocera is a laggard when it comes to return on equity. Pressure from Abenomics and shareholders could change that.

Why Burberry Can't Cut Its Way Back Into Fashion

Don't pin your hopes on Burberry's upcoming restructuring plan to revive profit growth.

How This Dollar Move Manufactures Strength

Manufacturing should offer some hope in the coming industrial production report.

09 April 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves. The Longest Streak Of Claims Under 300,000 Since 1973.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market expectations (from Bloomberg) were 253,000 to 280,000 (consensus 267,000), and the Department of Labor reported 253,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 266,500 (reported last week as 266,750) to 265,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Capitol Report: Treasury, Fed officials tell senators liquidity is fine in bond markets

Treasury's Antonio Weiss and Fed Governor Jerome Powell refused to blame Dodd-Frank for perceived fixed income liquidity issues and instead praised the law for improving financial system safety and soundness.

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