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13Apr2016 Market Update: DOW Up Triple Digits, Crude Prices Retreat, US Dollar Trading In The High 94's

Written by Gary

Late posting, was waiting for a reaction from the markets after crude prices fell dramatically earlier. The volatility in the crude sector is quite high and crude prices seems to be climbing again. Markets have been trading sideways near where they opened. Volume has fallen off, but the US dollar is melting upwards.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 2.67% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.77% and Mexico's IPC is up 0.72%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 77%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 69%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 57.1% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +16.42 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 56.63% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 64.64% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 72.20% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 17.69 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.01 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,339

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street rallies as JPMorgan drives bank stocks

(Reuters) - Wall Street rallied on Wednesday, boosted by JPMorgan's first-quarter results, and unexpectedly strong Chinese trade data raised hopes that the world's second-largest economy was recovering.

About 40,000 unionized Verizon workers walk off the job

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly 40,000 Verizon workers walked off the job on Wednesday in one of the largest U.S. strikes in recent years after contract talks hit an impasse, and got a boost as U.S. Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders joined them at a Brooklyn rally ahead of the New York primary next week.

JPMorgan beats Wall Street expectations in tough quarter for banks

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co , the No. 1 U.S. bank by assets, reported a quarterly profit that topped low market expectations as lower costs and better-than-expected trading revenue helped soften the blow from a fall in investment banking fees.

Weak U.S. retail sales reinforce Fed caution on rate hikes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in March as households cut back on purchases of automobiles and other items, further evidence that economic growth stumbled in the first quarter.

Special Report: A top hedge fund manager that's too hot for some to handle

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investing in Glacial Energy Holdings Inc should have been a disaster.

VW management accepts bonus cuts of at least 30 percent: source

HAMBURG/BERLIN (Reuters) - Volkswagen's top management board has agreed to cut executives' bonus payments by at least 30 percent, one person familiar with VW's bonus negotiations said, as the carmaker struggles to resolve a dispute over compensation.

OPEC cuts 2016 oil demand growth forecast, warns of more

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC on Wednesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2016 and warned of further reductions citing concern about Latin America and China, pointing to a larger supply surplus this year.

McCormick loses its appetite for UK's Premier Foods

LONDON (Reuters) - Shares in Premier Foods sank 27 percent on Wednesday after U.S. spice maker McCormick Foods dropped its 1.5 billion pound ($2.1 billion) takeover proposal for the UK maker of brands including Mr Kipling cakes.

U.S. regulators fail 'living wills' at 5 of 8 big banks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. regulators failed five big banks on Wednesday, including JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, on their plans for a bankruptcy that would not rely on taxpayer money, giving them until Oct. 1 to make amends or risk sanctions.

Stunning Chart Proving That China's Trade Data Has Never Been This Fake

The narrative is set - today's rally is predicated on "strong" Chinese trade data. So what happens when one chart explodes that narrative as totally fallacious for three simple reasons...

First, the data is clearly cooked... As Bloomberg's Tom Orlik notes, China's March imports from Hong Kong soared an implausible 116% YoY! As it is clearly disguising capital flows...

Trade mis-invoicing as a way to hide capital flows remains a factor. In the past, over-invoicing for exports was used as a way to hide capital inflows.

The latest data show the reverse phenomenon, with over-invoicing of imports as a way of hiding capital outflows.

Does this look "real"?

Second, there is the base effect which EVEN CHINA warned would be a factor:

But beware two factors; the government itself has warned that the base line from March 2015 is low. A reminder that observers shouldn't get complacent about the downward pressures still threatening China's economy.

And then finally, there's the figures themselves, can they be trusted?

But did anyone really need an excuse to buy the record highs in stocks, or send Trannie sup 3% on the day? Of course not!


Jump In Demand For 10 Year Paper In Strong, "Stopping-Through" Auction

Yesterday's strong 3Y auction was a harbinger. Despite the relentless risk on rally, moments ago the US Treasury had no problems to sell $20 billion in 10 Year paper which priced at a high yield of 1.765% (98.5% allotted), stopping through 1.6 bps through the 1.781% When Issued, the biggest gap since last spring, and well below March's 1.895%.

The bid to cover jumped from last month's 2.49, rising to 2.75, well above the 6 month average, and the highest since January.

Indirect demand also rose, with foreign central banks taking down 60% of the auction, the highest since February, and just below the 6 month average of 62.42%. Directs took down 15.3%, matching the February print, and the highest since May of 2015. This left Dealers with 24.8% of the auction.

The immediate result: a bid for long paper with 10Y and 30Y bonds extending gains in the immediate aftermath of the issuance.

Angola Could Be OPEC's First Member To Fall

Submitted by Rakesh Upadhyay via,

OPEC-member Angola, which is dependent on oil for 95 percent of its export revenues, is facing an urgent cash flow problem, and the only way out is external help as the dominoes start to fall.

Angola has sought financial aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to weather the crisis engulfing the African nation due to low oil prices, while President José Eduardo dos Santos has gone as far as to dip into the country's sovereign wealth fund just to pay civil servant salaries.

The Finance ministry said in a statement:

"The government of Angola is aware that the high reliance on the oil sector represents a vulnerability to the public finances and the economy more broadly. The government will work with the IMF to design and implement policies and structural reforms aimed at improving macroeconomic and financial stability, including through fiscal discipline."

Along with the drop in oil prices, it doesn't help that Angola's economy has largely become a kleptocracy - a government run by those gunning for status and personal gain at the expense of the nation.

For those who may argue with this terminology, we can look at the Angolan President's daughter, Isabel dos Santos, who is worth $3.3 billion and is the richest woman in Africa, according to Forbes. Meanwhile, 68 ...

J.P. Morgan Earnings: Being Big Isn't So Bad

J.P. Morgan Chase struck a blow against its critics with earnings that showcased the benefits of being big and diversified.

What Citigroup's 'Living Will' Win Means for Big Banks

Five big banks' living wills were deemed to be not credible by regulators. That Citi passed is significant.

BlackRock: Why It Will Stay Ahead of the Pack

BlackRock continues to outpace rivals, a trend that is poised to remain on track ahead of Thursday's earnings report.

February 2016 Business Sales and Inventories Data Is Mixed.

Written by Steven Hansen

Econintersect's analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales improved compared to the previous month - and there was am improvement in the rolling averages. Inventories marginally declined. The inventory-to-sales ratios remain at recessionary levels.

Your Digital Self: Jetpacks take a step toward mass transportation

Flight times are getting longer and speeds faster, says Jurica Dujmović.

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