US markets closed fractionally down, but near the unchanged line after having been up for the morning and early afternoon. The Spooz closed below its 2044, now resistance, level giving credence to bearish indicators all over Wall Street. The double bottom breakout point near the SP500's 1950 is support ahead of the 1820-1810 lows. The 2067-2075 area highs could provide initial resistance ahead of 2085 (double bottom count) and the 2015 highs of 2100-2135.
Many indicators are flashing tactical bearish divergences that suggest that the rally off the Jan/Feb lows is close to its end.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower after a late selloff on Monday with gains in materials and banks more than offset by declines in consumer staples shares as investors girded for the start of an earnings season expected to be gloomy.
(Reuters) - Dell Inc's [DI.Ul] cyber security unit, SecureWorks Corp, could be valued at up to $1.42 billion in its initial public offering, the first major U.S. listing of a technology company this year.
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shares of sports apparel maker Under Armour dropped nearly 6 percent on Monday, a day after defending champion Jordan Spieth lost the Masters golf tournament in a shocking meltdown.
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Tesla Motors Inc will recall 2,700 Model X sport utility vehicles in the United States due to a faulty locking hinge in the third-row seats that increases the risk the seats could fall forward in a crash, the electric car maker said on Monday.
PARIS (Reuters) - France will seek tougher EU sanctions on people who help to facilitate tax evasion and a G20 blacklist of uncooperative tax havens, the Finance Ministry said on Monday following the Panama Papers leaks.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer staples stocks have served investors well through the last 12 months of market turmoil, but with quarterly earnings around the corner, activity in the options market spells caution.
DUBAI (Reuters) - A delegation from Boeing has visited Iran to discuss sales of jetliners, the secretary of Iran's Aviation Companies Association said on Monday, as the U.S. planemaker seeks to ensure its European rival Airbus does not steal a march in Iran.
Last week saw the biggest addition of shorts across the Treasury Bond Complex in over 3 years (with record ultra shorts)...
And CSFB's "Fear Barometer" just hit an all-time high...
As CS' Mandy Xu notes, typically, an increase in the CSFB is caused by a combination of higher put demand and lower call demand. Interestingly, this time, the entire move was driven by the call-side. The derivatives market is assigning less than 1% probability the market will rise by 10% in the next three months vs. 17% probability it will fall by 10%.
* * *
And so while stocks tried (twice) to ramp in the face of faux-ness, they couldn't... Despite a well placed Italian headline into the close...
*ITALY FIN. INSTITUTIONS, CDP AGREE TO SET UP FUND FOR BANKS
With The Atlanta Fed's slashing its Q1 GDP growth expectations to just 0.1%, consensus estimates for 2016 growth have collapsed. However, none of this should surprise anyone as this is the sixth year in a row that over-optimistic growth hopes devolve into hype for more stimulus and a hockey-stick just around the corner.
While expectations have not improved since 2010, at least one these dreadful soothsayers is defending this year's drop in the same old manner - by promising that H2 will be better, for these 4 reasons...
Downward revisions to 1Q Atlanta Fed GDPNow: For the third year in a row, forecasters came into the first quarter looking for 2%-plus GDP growth, only to steadily revise estimates lower.
We look at the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking for 1Q in each year. They are far from alone: both we and the consensus have been doing the same thing. This weakness adds to market skepticism about a June Fed hike. In both 2014 and 2015, we faded the weak 1Q data and argued that the recovery remained on track.
Today, we see four reasons to reiterate that call.
First, outside of the GDP adding up, the data look fine.
With The Wall Street Journal once again playing down any precious metals strength and Goldman explicitly saying "sell," RBC Capitalo Markets' Tyler Broda and Alexandra Slattery are considerably more positive...
Retro Gold - Are we heading back to the 1970s?
Gold is often considered as a strong hedge for inflationary environments. The 1970s are the most commonly cited example of this phenomenon (in the US at least). Our analysis suggests that inflation is only part of the equation. As US inflation begins to re-emerge, and monetary policy around it continues to remain accommodative, the potential for lower real interest rates, at least over the medium-term, is increasing. In our view, this could create similar dynamics for the gold market as what occurred in the mid-to-late 1970s.
The recent statements from the Chairwoman of the US FOMC, Janet Yellen, suggest that global risks and the lack of central bank firepower in a low interest rate environment will likely mean that interest rates will be held lower for longer. In her speech to the Economic Club of New York in March, Ms. Yellen stated that the neutral "real Fed funds rate" (the level at which monetary policy would be neither expansionary nor contractionary) is likely close to zero. When using the core PCE measure, the current rate at -1.25% is even lower. In addition, concerns are beginning to mount for the FOMC that inflation may be coming unanchored to longer-term stable levels but to the downside. This implies the probability for lower real interest rates is likely to increase. This change in stance, and the market's anticipation of this outcome following significant global market volatility in January/February, have helped to spur what appears to be the first sustained gold ETF buying since 2011.
Gold's two key characteristics determining rate ...
While Sweden's seemingly self-imposed refugee crisis continues to roil the nation's population, it appears a different and potentially just as problematic social unrest looms. As Gatestone reports, for the last few years, immigration-welcoming Sweden has been overwhelmed with Roma beggars from Romania and Bulgaria who have turned "panhandling into an occupation."
Nobody knows exactly how many of them there are, but The Gatestone Institute's Ingrid Carlqvist reports, Sweden has been overwhelmed with Roma beggars from Romania and Bulgaria. In 2014, the newspaperSydsvenskan reported that an estimated 600 Roma beggars lived in the country; a few months ago, the government-appointed "National Coordinator for Vulnerable EU Citizens," Martin Valfridsson, found that there are now around 4,000.
"We do not fool anyone. We just benefit from the opportunity." — Bulgarian beggar in Sweden who said he "owned" five street corners.
"If the begging is profitable, they stay miserable.... [Giving money] improves the acute situation. At the same time, it contributes to making the bigger issue permanent -- the misery.... It will not help the Roma, but it gives you a chance to feel like a good person. ... The basic concept of racism is precisely that we as westerners and Swedes are far superior (smarter) and that the Roma are inferior (dumber). If this... is not racist then I do not know what is. ... One could add that the image is inverted among Roma. They consider th ...
Exposing tax dodgers is a worthy endeavor, but the "limited hangout" of the Panama Papers may have less noble ends, dovetailing with the War on Cash and the imminent threat of massive bail-ins of depositor funds.
The chart and the data underscore a striking inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and crude oil, which is priced in dollars. In other words, the stronger the dollar the more expensive it makes crude to buyers using other monetary units.
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