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08Apr2016 Market Update: Markets Mixed, DOW Up 40 Points And Slipping, WTI Crude Climbs To High $39's, Don't Hold Your Breath For A Late Afternoon Rally

Written by Gary

Markets opened three quarters of a percentage point higher this morning but failed to continue melting up. The large caps are moderately in the green while the small caps are flat, but in the red for now. An afternoon rally seems to be iffy at best, but possible for a fractionally one just before the close. Indicators are still favoring a 'moderate' downturn in the very near future. (See Below)


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The Bovespa is up 3.81% while the S&P 500 gains 0.29%. The IPC is off 0.09%.

08/04/2016 11:49 S&P took a hard hit off the top-side line of resistance (another low high forming)

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cross-market_technical_update/2016/04/08/SP-500-Snaps-its-Neck-line-But-Bounce-Makes-Things-Tricky-PRtech.html

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 77%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 69%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 56.7%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -44.54
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 49.37%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 63.35%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 76.40%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

17.15

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 77.73
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,136

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Goldman Sachs pays CEO Blankfein $22.6 million for 2015

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc paid Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein $22.6 million for 2015, according to a regulatory filing on Friday, marking his first pay decline in four years.

U.S. to continue appeal of iPhone data case in N.Y

(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department on Friday said it will move ahead with an appeal of a court ruling blocking the government from forcing Apple Inc to help unlock an iPhone in a drug case in New York.

FCC proposes reforming business data services market

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The chairman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission is proposing to reform the estimated $25 billion a year market for high-capacity data and voice connections, known as special access lines, to businesses.

Starboard urges Depomed board to pursue a potential sale

(Reuters) - Activist investor Starboard Value LP, which has an economic stake of 9.8 percent in Depomed Inc , in a letter criticized the drugmaker's board over corporate governance deficiencies and other matters and urged it to explore a potential sale.

Wall Street gains driven by surge in oil prices

(Reuters) - A strong rebound in oil pushed U.S. stocks higher on Friday, while investors took comfort in Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's positive comments on the economy.

Europe's banks under scrutiny as regulators look into Panama Papers

BERN/GENEVA (Reuters) - Banking watchdogs across Europe have begun checking whether lenders have ties to a massive document leak from Panama that showed how offshore companies are used to stash clients' wealth.

Twitter appoints Hugh Johnston and Martha Lane Fox to its board

(Reuters) - Twitter Inc said on Friday it had appointed PepsiCo Inc Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston and Martha Lane Fox, co-founder of travel website lastminute.com, to its board.

HK tycoon David Li resists activist investor Elliott's attack on BEA

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Bank of East Asia (BEA) shareholders approved all resolutions put at its annual meeting on Friday, rejecting calls by U.S. activist investor Elliott Management Corp to defy the board, although one resolution was not put to the vote, but withdrawn instead.

U.S. wholesale inventories fall sharply, point to weaker growth

WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - - U.S. wholesale inventories fell at their fastest pace in nearly three years in February,

European Banks Crash For 4th Straight Week

Even with today's 3% surge - the most in a month - on the heels of Unicredit's CEO proclaiming that EU banks are "intensely" looking for fundin solutions, European banking stocks have collapsed for a 4th straight week for the worst losses since 2012.

Following the brief exuberance after Draghi unleashed his latest bazooka - which it seems was all front-run - European banking stocks have collapsed almost 20% - the biggest loss since April 2012.

FX Volatility Soars To 4-Year Highs As Central Bankers Lose Control

Since The Fed ended QE3, the world's FX markets have become increasingly turmoily as the loss of Janet's foot on the throat of volatility sends chaotic sprres through carry traders' P&L. In fact, after rising 6 days in a row amid Japanese Yen strength, Global FX rates are the most turbulent since January 2012.

Chart: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, volatility in currencies of the Group-of-Seven nations climbed for a sixth straight day Friday, the longest streak of increases this year. Price swings accelerated after the yen strengthened past 110 per dollar for the first time in almost 18 months this week, fueling speculation on whether the Bank of Japan will intervene to weaken its currency.

The trouble with turmoiling FX markets is it forces deleveraging in carry trades and tightens the much-needed liquidity that unerlies the fast-money purchasing of risky-assets around the world. It is no coincidence that as FX volatility has surged in the last year, so equity performance has ebbed.

Regime Uncertainty Kills U.S. Growth

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published an editorial that merits careful examination: œJack Lew's Political Economy . The Journal correctly points out that the Obama administration's meddling with regulations and red tape is killing U.S. investment and jobs. The most recent example being the Treasury's new rules on so-called tax inversions, which burried a merger between Pfizer, Inc. and Allergan PLC.

As the Journal concluded: œThis politicization has spread across most of the economy during the Obama years, as regulators rewrite longstanding interpretations of longstanding laws in order to achieve the policy goals they can't or won't negotiate with Congress. Telecoms, consumer finance, for-profit education, carbon energy, auto lending, auto-fuel economy, truck emissions, home mortgages, health care and so much more.

œCapital investment in this recovery has been disappointingly low, and one major reason is political intrusion into every corner of business decision-making. To adapt Mr. Read [Pfizer CEO Ian Read], the only rule is that the rules are whatever the Obama Administration wants them to be. The results have been slow growth, small wage gains, and a growing sense that there is no legal restraint on the political class.

Washington's destructive policies have been dubbed œregime uncertainty in a strand of innovative analyses pioneered by Robert Higgs of the Independent Institute. Regime uncertainty relates to the likelihood that an investor's private property " namely, the flows of income and services it yields " will be attenuated by government action. As regime uncertainty is elevated, private investment is notched down from where it would have been. This can result in a business-cycle bust and ev ...

How Fickle Markets Are Challenging ECB's Draghi

A central bank's work is never done, it seems. The ECB faces challenges from market moves.

Why Not to Rush Into Pharma's Bargains

The pharmaceuticals sector is trading at its lowest valuation in over two years. Investors eyeing Europe's big pharma companies should tread carefully.

Sumitomo Corp.: Where Commodity Pain Has Yet to Be Acknowledged

Despite some write-downs, major Japanese trading house Sumitomo sounds too hopeful about its exposure to commodities.

The Wall Street Journal: Bernie Sanders to take campaign break for Vatican visit

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders will take time off the campaign trail ahead of the critical New York primary for a trip to the Vatican next week, his campaign said Friday.

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gary@econintersect.com

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