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05Apr2016 Market Close: WTI Crude Settles Fractionally Higher, Wall Street Lower Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

Written by Gary

US markets closed down after having rallied for past several sessions as investors took gains off the table and ahead of an upcoming quarterly reporting season that is expected to reveal sharply lower earnings. Investors are obviously concerned ahead of tomorrow's FOMC minutes release.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S., Volkswagen may not reach emissions deal by April 21 - government official

(Reuters) - The top U.S. environmental official expressed uncertainty on Tuesday about whether the Obama administration and Volkswagen AG will meet an April 21 court deadline to come up with a plan to address excess emissions from 580,000 diesel vehicles sold in the country.

Bank of Montreal CEO plays down the impact of oil price slump

TORONTO (Reuters) - Bank of Montreal's top executive played down the impact of the drop in oil prices, saying the lender's consumer loan delinquencies had not risen and that struggling energy companies would restructure rather than fail.

Trump slams Ford's new $1.6 billion investment in Mexico

DETROIT/WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co , criticized by Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump for manufacturing outside the United States, announced on Tuesday that it would invest $1.6 billion to build more small cars in Mexico, starting in 2018.

Iceland's leader resigns, first casualty of Panama Papers

LONDON/REYKJAVIK (Reuters) - Iceland's Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson is to resign, his party said on Tuesday, becoming the first casualty of leaked documents from a Panamanian law firm which have shone a spotlight on the finances of an array of politicians and public figures worldwide.

Justice Department will sue to stop Halliburton, Baker Hughes merger: source

(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department will file a lawsuit as soon as this week to stop oilfield services provider Halliburton Co from acquiring smaller rival Baker Hughes, a deal that would combine the No. 2 and No. 3 oil services companies, a source familiar with the matter said.

After rally, earnings gloom sets in on Wall Street

(Reuters) - Wall Street fell on Tuesday as investors took gains off the table after a recent rally and ahead of an upcoming quarterly reporting season that is expected to reveal sharply lower earnings.

Twitter to stream Thursday night NFL games in 2016 season

(Reuters) - The National Football League said it had chosen Twitter as its exclusive global partner for streaming its Thursday night games during the 2016 regular season.

Exclusive: Pfizer leaning toward abandoning deal with Allergan - source

(Reuters) - Drugmaker Pfizer Inc is leaning toward abandoning its $160 billion agreement to buy Allergan Plc in light of the U.S. Treasury's new measures to curb such tax evading deals, a source familiar with the situation said on Tuesday.

France's Royal offers nuclear plant site for Tesla factory

PARIS (Reuters) - French Energy Minister Segolene Royal has suggested to Tesla founder Elon Musk that he builds an electric car factory on the site of France's oldest nuclear reactor after it closes at the end of the year, AFP reported on Tuesday.

What The Charts Say: Complacent, Complacent-er, Complacent-est

While breadth and seasonals are constructive, BofA's Stephen Suttmeier warns complacent put/call, VXV/VIX, and volume distribution are April risk factors.

Since mid-March, accumulation (up volume or buying) has fallen relative to distribution (down volume or selling) as the US equity market has rallied, which is negative divergence and risk factor for April. To suggest that this complacency is beginning to take its toll on price action, the S&P 500 must break nearby support at 2044-2022, which coincides with revised channel support from February, and fall out of its daily overbought condition.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator remains weak and has a month-long bearish divergence with the S&P 500 moving into early April. This is similar to the divergence moving into early November, and a risk factor for April.

VXV/VIX says investors very complacent about volatility

There is nothing like a 14%+ rally in 34 days, with help from a Dovish Janet Yellen last week, to make investors feel more comfortable about the US equity market. In terms of sentiment, the VXV/VIX ratio is extremely overbought or complacent as investors do not expect an immediate increase in volatility. The VXV/VIX remains in the overbought zone above 1.20 after hitting the highest reading since March 2015. The S&P 500 has generally s ...

Inside The Biggest Short Squeeze Ever, A Surprise Emerges

Less than a month ago when we looked at the performance of the most-shorted stocks, we confirmed that at least from a price action standpoint the short squeeze that had started in early February on the back of the 50% move higher in oil, had become the biggest short squeeze on record.

Today, courtesy of JPM's Prime Brokerage, we can not only confirm that the move higher from the February lows was the biggest squeeze ever, but share a unique glimpse inside its mechanics, where something surprising emerges.

The chart below shows the cumulative daily market value change of shorting and covering activities in the PB portfolio across ETFs and Equities YTD 2016 (as of Mar. 31, 2016). The data includes all strategies.

There is something very surprising about the chart below: what it shows is that whereas hedge funds have been actively shorting single name stocks, when it was time to cover, the single names remained shorted but it was ETFs where the covering/buying activity took place.

Potentially, this huge ETF covering spree (d ...

Allergan's Inversion Problem: There Is a Plan B

New tax rules have Allergan shares reeling, but investors don't have to be permanently disappointed.

Halliburton-Baker Hughes Deal: Time and Justice Take a Toll

Halliburton and Baker-Hughes are worse for wear now that their merger is likely to be blocked by the Justice Department.

Why Things Are Looking Up for Risky Assets

Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting will likely show a cautious approach. That should bode well for risky assets.

Fitbit Blaze is beating Apple Watch on Amazon

Fitbit said it sold more than 1 million Fitbit Blaze devices in its first month on the market.

This billboard says everything you need to know about absurdity of San Francisco real estate

Entry-level price of $1 million for a new-construction development in a distant corner of the City by the Bay " and it's not even startling.

Futures Movers: Oil futures end lower as focus turns to supply data

Oil futures finish a choppy session with losses, undercut by fading expectations for a global production freeze as traders turn their attention back to supply data.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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