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31Mar2016 Market Update: Markets In The Green, Drifting Back To Flat Status, WTI Crude Moderately Volatile Going Nowhere As Investors Sit On Hands

Written by Gary

Wall Street rarely does anything the way one expects it to do, or at least in the time frame you have picked. The markets did open flat and then proceeded to drift upward for an failed attempt testing the 2070 resistance. Volume has fallen off to anemic levels as investors remain unsure of market direction.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.04%, while the Bovespa is leading the IPC lower. They are down 2.13% and 0.60% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 79%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 74%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 57.0%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 27.89
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 53.35%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 65.27%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 79.40%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 18.02
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.29
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,235

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall Street up slightly as tumultuous quarter winds down

(Reuters) - Wall Street was set to end a tumultuous first quarter on a quiet note with the three major indexes eking out small gains on Thursday, led by healthcare stocks.

Regulator orders drugmaker Valeant management to cease trading

(Reuters) - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc's directors and key officers have received a cease-trade order by the securities regulator in the Canadian province of Quebec, on the company's request, Valeant said on Thursday.

Exclusive: Uber will use Progressive Insurance to cover Texas drivers

(Reuters) - Uber Technologies Inc [UBER.UL] will use Progressive Insurance to provide coverage for drivers in Texas beginning on Friday, in a pilot that could lead the ride-hailing market leader to diversify its U.S. insurance purchasing from its current sole provider, Uber and Progressive executives told Reuters.

GE Capital asks U.S. government to lift 'too big to fail' designation

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - General Electric Co's GE Capital financing arm on Thursday asked the U.S. government to stop designating it as a "systemically important financial institution," a label for companies considered "too big to fail," now that it has less influence on the U.S. economy.
...

U.S. jobs market firming, manufacturing regaining footing

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but a sharp drop in layoffs in March suggested the labor market momentum remained intact.

Ford issues three recalls, including one that led to two fires

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co said on Thursday it will conduct three separate safety recalls including one of sport-utility vehicles with a defective engine heater that led to two fires in Canada, in which no one was injured.

Swiss watchdog's concerns remain over $1.4 billion Kuoni bid terms

ZURICH (Reuters) - Switzerland's takeover regulator still has concerns about some terms of Swedish private equity firm EQT's takeover of travel group Kuoni and rejected an appeal by a major shareholder over a planned share swap associated with the deal.

Foxconn's $3.5 billion bet to keep up with Apple

SEOUL (Reuters) - With its acquisition of Japan's Sharp Corp , Foxconn aims to gain access to promising technology for high-end OLED screens likely to be used in future devices from Apple Inc , the electronics assembler's biggest customer.

McDonald's to add more than 1,500 outlets in China, HK, Korea

(Reuters) - McDonald's Corp plans to add more than 1,500 restaurants in China, Hong Kong and South Korea over the next five years as it focuses on high-growth markets to boost sales.

Gartman Throws In The Bearish Towel: "Don't Fight The Fed"

Yesterday, when we wrote that "Gartman remains bearish of stocks" we cited the "commodity king" as follows:

... we are still going to err bearishly of stocks and certainly we shall not err bullishly of them. We are, in our retirement account here at TGL long of gold in EUR and Yen related terms; we are long of a small position in the corn ETF and we are long of the bond market ETF, which tends to be a bearishly construed position. As of the close of trading yesterday we are +8.2% for the year-to-date, compared to the loss thus far this year of our International Index of 3.0% and compared to the small gain by the S&P of 0.5%... a gain that many shall tout as evidence of a great bull run. We shall not.

On the other hand, we said that "we shall expect another ~1% rise in the market." We were close.

In any case, after having flipflopped two weeks ago when Gartman against went bearish "of stocks" on March 16, by buying the VIX as stocks were about to take out their 2016 highs, Gartman has finally thrown in the towel. From his latest letter:

SHARE PRICES HAVE CONTINUED THEIR RUSH SKYWARD following Dr. Yellen's œAll-Clear signal to the investment world Tuesday when she spoke to the Economics Club of New York, telling the world that it was she and no one else at the Fed who was in charge of monetary policy and said, without equivocation that the Fed under here aegis will not be tightening monetary policy any time soon. This is, it seems, the best of all equity investment worlds where economic ...

Earnings: Pay Attention to What Companies Seek to Ignore

Some of the charges companies have been excluding from pro forma results are worth ignoring. But the data suggest a great many of them aren't.

Why Telecom Italia Needs to Call Prime Minister Renzi

It may not be easy for Telecom Italia's new chief executive to secure the political support it desperately needs.

Can Bad News Be Good for European Steel?

Tata Steel's decision to pull out of its U.K. steel business has boosted shares in Germany's ThyssenKrupp. As usual in European steel, nothing looks easy.

February 2016 Median Household Income Not Significantly Changed

from Sentier Research

According to new data derived from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), median annual household income in February 2016 was $57,129, not significantly different from the January 2016 median of $57,192. The Sentier Household Income Index for February 2016 was 99.7 (January 2000 = 100), 0.1 percentage point lower than last month. Median income remains slightly lower than the January 2000 level after adjusting for changes in prices.

Europe Markets: European stocks finish lower, slump 7.7% in first quarter

European bank shares are under pressure while a rise in the euro weighs on exporters.

Deep Dive: Most stocks rose during the first quarter " surprised?

Despite all the panic in January and February, the first quarter was a decent one for the market, writes Phil van Doorn.

Metals Stocks: Gold headed for best quarter in nearly 30 years

Gold futures climbed Thursday, on track to mark their best quarterly performance since 1986 " a year when œTop Gun was the most popular movie, and Dionne Warwick and Friend's cover of That's What Friends are For was the No. 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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