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15Mar2016 Market Update: Crude Prices Decline Three Percent, US Markets Down Fractionally And Trading Sideways On Falling Volume

Written by Gary

Markets opened lower as expected and have traded sideways in a relative narrow channel as investors weighed the pros and cons of a market direction change. Energy and healthcare stocks weighed on Wall Street this morning as investors also awaited the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Crude prices fell 3 percent today, extending losses for a second straight day, No afternoon rally is expected.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 73%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 72%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 55.4%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 52.79
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 43.42%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 59.16%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 74.20%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 19.63
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 77.35
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 9,975

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Energy, health stocks weigh as Wall St. waits for Fed

(Reuters) - A decline in energy and healthcare stocks weighed on Wall Street on a relatively quiet Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.

Mizuho to face U.S. lawsuit over Mt Gox bitcoin losses: ruling

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. lawsuit accusing Japan's Mizuho Bank of concealing problems at the now-bankrupt Tokyo-based Mt Gox bitcoin exchange can move forward, a federal judge in Chicago has ruled.

Weak U.S. retail sales highlight risks to economic outlook

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell less than expected in February, but a sharp downward revision to January's data could reignite concerns about the economy's growth prospects.

Oil down 3 percent on technical pressure, U.S. stockpile worry

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil fell 3 percent on Tuesday, extending losses for a second straight day, as market participants cited technical resistance after prices ran above $40 a barrel and worry that U.S. crude stockpiles had continued to rise despite falling production.

U.S. banks make cool technology, realize it can be sold

(Reuters) - Big Wall Street banks, after spending massive amounts of money and time to get their old, creaking systems in better shape, are now trying to sell technology they've developed in-house to other companies.

Lockheed CEO: 'No regrets' about Sikorsky buy despite oil price drop

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp has "no regrets" about buying Sikorsky for $9 billion despite a drop in oil prices that has led to a bigger-than-expected decline Sikorsky's commercial helicopter sales, Chief Executive Marillyn Hewson said Tuesday.

Free burritos lure Chipotle loyalists, but will sales follow?

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Cesar Trejo broke his Chipotle habit after the chain's string of food safety lapses last year. This week, a free food offer lured him back, along with the urging of three friends who had returned without getting sick.

Barclays cuts shares awarded to top executives to $12 million

LONDON (Reuters) - Barclays almost halved the value of shares awarded to its top executives this year due to a share price fall, handing them stock worth 8.7 million pounds ($12 million) compared with 16.4 million pounds a year earlier.

Teamster locals recommend rejection of Costco proposal

(Reuters) - The International Brotherhood of Teamsters said its local branches on the U.S. East Coast and California had recommended members reject a contract offer from warehouse club retailer Costco Wholesale Corp .

This Is What Happens When A Short Squeeze Ends

Remember last week, when China was "fixed" because after the National People's Congress a record-smashing short-squeeze hyped on the back of stimulus hope sent Iron Ore prices soaring 20% in a day? Well that's all over...

Last week, analysts and traders alike were stunned by "the departure from fundamentals" as "the iron ore and steel markets have gone berserk."

As we noted last week, while at the annual National People's Congress at the weekend, the authorities said they'd allow a record high deficit and higher money-supply target to support growth of 6.5 percent to 7 percent; they also vowed to help cut overcapacity in steel, potentially curbing demand for iron ore.

"We expect the current rally to be short-lived," analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai said in a note predicting further growth in iron ore supply in the quarters ahead.

"The causality will revert sooner rather than later, and steel raw materials will one again drive steel prices rather than the other way around."

Recent gains in iron ore probably won't last, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report received on Monday, forecasting a drop back to $35 a ton in the final quarter. This year's rally has been driven by rising steel prices in China, a reversal of the normal relationship seen between the raw material and the manufactured product, Goldman said.

Just as Goldman warned - the commodity rally was unsustainable..

Bill Ackman Sends Out Desperate "Hail Mary" Letter Defending Valeant, Says Business Worth "Multiples" More

With Valeant down nearly 50%, and Pershing Square fielding an unknown number of margin calls and redemption requests as of this moment, Bill Ackman just did the only thing he could do at this moment: send a letter to anyone who still cares, defending his disastrous investment, yet again.

Pershing Square Holdings, LTD. Sends Communication to Investors Regarding Valeant

Dear Pershing Square Investor,

Today, Valeant reported preliminary unaudited earnings for Q4, updated guidance for Q1, full year 2016 and the next twelve months. In particular, management shocked the market with revenue and earnings guidance for the next twelve months (Q2 2016 to Q1 2017) which does not appear to foot with continued favorable prescription trends and management's commentary on the call about the strength of the underlying businesses. Furthermore, the company's 10-K has been delayed requiring the company seek a waiver under its credit agreement. While we believe that it is highly likely that the banks will provide a waiver, uncertainty about the potential for a default creates enormous investor fear.

The above factors have caused investors to lose total confidence in the company as reflected by the current 44% decline in Valeant's stock price.

Last week, Steve Fraidin, our Vice Chairman, joined the board. We are going to take a much more proactive role at the company to protect and maximize the value of our investment. We continue to believe that the value of the underlying business franchises that comprise Valeant are worth multiples of the current market price. Getting to those values, however, will require restoration of shareholder confidence in the management and governance of the ...

Global Stocks Fall as Commodities Drop

A renewed drop in commodities prices dragged global stocks lower Tuesday.

Who Stole $100 Million From Bangladesh at the New York Fed?

Someone using official codes stole $100 million from Bangladesh's account at the New York Fed over a recent weekend. Now, officials in four countries are trying to figure out what happened.

The Incredible Emerging-Market Debt Switcheroo

Foreign investors have poured billions into emerging-markets bonds. Instead of earning a little extra yield, they have lost about a third of their investments.

London Markets: FTSE 100 pulled lower as miners, energy shares slump

U.K. stocks fall for the time first in three sessions, with oil shares lower as energy prices continue to fall, and as Antofagasta shares tumble on dividend disappointment from the miner.

Europe Markets: European stocks under pressure as commodity shares slide

European equities fell Tuesday, with sharp pullbacks among commodity shares leading the market lower for the first time in three sessions.

The Tell: What is a 'Tobin tax' and why does China want one?

Chinese authorities are considering imposing a 'Tobin tax' on currency transactions to curb speculation on the yuan currency. What is a Tobin tax anyway?

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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