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15Mar2016 Pre-Market Commentary: US Futures Lower, WTI Crude Off Highs, Gold Showing Weakness, Investors Are Increasing Nervous Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are headed down this morning as analysts at Jefferies sounded a bullish tone, noting that relative calm has returned to the high-yield debt market and money-flows are normalizing. Jefferies' view contrasts sharply with Morgan Stanley, which said yesterday there was a 30% chance of a U.S. recession. Markets are expected to open lower.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. The CAC 40 is down 0.92% while Germany's DAX is off 0.75% and London's FTSE 100 is lower by 0.55%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Oil prices ease over uncertain supply picture

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday, as concerns emerged that a six-week rally may have fizzled after OPEC doused hopes for a speedy erosion of a global overhang of unwanted crude.

Europe shares track Asia lower after BOJ, focus turns to Fed

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares fell on Tuesday, pulled lower by mirroring declines in Asia after the Bank of Japan painted a bleaker picture of the Japanese economy and helped push the yen higher, and as oil and metals prices dropped.

Indian court grants temporary relief to Abbott, Glenmark in drug ban case

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - An Indian court on Tuesday granted interim injunction to U.S. drugmaker Abbott's India unit , and domestic companies Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Macleods Pharmaceuticals, on the prohibition on sale of several combination drugs.

Toshiba finds more accounting errors, promises improvement

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Toshiba Corp revealed additional accounting irregularities on Friday after a multi-billion dollar accounting scandal last year, rekindling doubts over the company's pledge to improve transparency.

Futures slip after BOJ comments; Fed in focus

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were lower on Tuesday as the Bank of Japan's gloomy view about the Japanese economy troubled investors ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.

VW Financial Services builds reserves for residual value declines

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen's financial services arm said it had set aside 353 million euros $391 million) in reserves mainly to cover potential declines in residual values on cars in its leasing fleet, in the wake of the diesel emissions cheating scandal.

China's Anbang: from auto insurance roots to global buyer of luxury hotels

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Anbang Insurance Group Co has emerged from near obscurity 18 months ago to sign deals worth more than $30 billion, moving into the big league of global real estate and finance.

Munich Re names Joachim Wenning as CEO from April 2017

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Munich Re has named Joachim Wenning to succeed Nikolaus von Bomhard as chief executive of the world's largest reinsurer from April 27, 2017.

Valeant cuts 2016 revenue forecast

(Reuters) - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc cut its revenue forecast for the year by about 12 percent, or $1.5 billion, citing slower growth in its U.S. dermatology, gastrointestinal and women's health businesses.

One Week After Trolling Zero Hedge For Being Negative, Jefferies Posts Worst Quarter Since Financial Crisis

One weekend ago, in an unexpected episode of Zero Hedge trolling by Jefferies economists, the junk-bond focused mid-tier investment bank sent out a note in which it defended the "recovery" as follows:

œLightweights like Zero Hedge might point to a sub-50 ISM as another reason to hate equities, but there's a reason why little ZH is a choker, a reason he's got one of the worst records in predicting markets anywhere, just a harrable record, harrable, I mean, successful people have pointed out that he's 0 for 2600. He's succeeded at being wrong. Success is my son-in-law, I'm successful, my daughter is both beautiful and successful. I have many successful friends. Made up quote, but the point is that it's hard to be successful when just reacting to backward looking information. Our work suggests that by the time the ISM breaks 50 to the downside the market is already pricing in much of the concern--actually a break through 50 to the downside tends to be quite positive for the market over the next 12M even when you include recessionary periods. When that break of 50 hasn't been associated with an immediate recession (i.e. perhaps now), median market performance is up 11% over the next 6M, and 21% over the next 12M. This week we got a better than expected ISM, and skeptics point to the fact that it's still below 50, but that may be a positive. See supporting chart, table and methodology below. (T.J. Thornton, US Product Management).

We responded not by retaliating with childish name calling, but by showing both the recent coll ...

Frontrunning: March 15



Bank of Japan Holds Fire on Stimulus, Negative Rate Unchanged (BBG)

Donald Trump Aims for a Knockout in Tuesday Primaries (WSJ)

Global Stocks Fall on Commodities Decline, Ahead of Fed Meeting (WSJ)

Oil prices fall as clouds gather over supply picture (Reuters)

Many Shale Companies Are Unable to Ramp Up Oil Output (WSJ)

Valeant Slashes Guidance, stock crashes (WSJ)

Fed to sit tight on rates at March meet, hint at hikes to come (Reuters)

Big Money Gets On China's Lifeboats (BBG)

Republican Party gears up to fight Obama court nominee (Reuters)

BOJ Move Backfires as 0.001% Deposits Lure Cash of Fund Managers (BBG)

VW Whistle-Blower's Suit Accuses Carmaker of Deleting Data (NYT)

Apple fight could escalate with demand for 'source code' (Reuters)< ...

Global Stocks Fall as Commodities Drop

Falling commodities prices dragged down global stocks as investors waited for guidance from the Federal Reserve on the course of U.S. interest rates.

Jefferies Group Swings to Loss

Jefferies Group swung to a loss during its first quarter, as trading revenue tumbled amid choppy markets and concerns over economic growth.

Goldman Buys Online Retirement Benefits Business

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Monday it was purchasing Honest Dollar, a sign big banks are increasingly responding to the fintech threat with their checkbooks.

Retail Sales Down In February 2016?

Written by Steven Hansen

Retail sales declined according to US Census headline data. Our view is that this month's data was strong, There was a significant increase in the rolling averages.

Economic Report: U.S. producer prices fall 0.2% in February

U.S. wholesale prices fell 0.2% in February to mark the fifth decline in seven months, largely because of lower gasoline and food prices.

Economic Report: Retail sales in February fall for second straight month

Sales at U.S. retailers dipped in February and January turned out to be an even poorer month, new government figures show.

Economic Report: Empire State factory index has first positive reading in eight months

A reading of New-York manufacturing conditions rose sharply in March to the first positive reading since last July.

Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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