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11Mar2016 Market Close: Markets Closed Sharply Higher, WTI Slips Along With Gold, Tea-Leaves Indicators Neutral, SP500 Rising To 2044 Remains Valid

Written by Gary

Markets closed higher after melting up from the opening bell. The DOW closed up 218 points, the Spooze up 1.6% and the Nasdaq up 1.9%. WTI crude unable to pierce the 39 barrier and slipped to settle at the mid 38's. GS is calling for crude to be sharply lower and some investors are calling this market disinformation. Gold also slipped from 1284 this morning to 1250.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall St. rallies to highest close of 2016

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street rallied on Friday in a delayed response to the European Central Bank's stimulus measures announced Thursday, while higher oil prices drove up energy shares.

Oil, stocks rise; IEA sees bottom for oil market

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday, boosting world stock markets, after an energy organization said the oil market may have found a floor.

Some bond funds bet on longer-lasting rally in energy debt

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Many bond investors who benefited from the recent rally in battered energy debt prices are maintaining or seeking to add to their holdings, viewing the rally as the start of a longer-lasting uptrend rather than a blip.

Oil up as IEA sees tighter supply; Goldman says rally premature

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil rose up to 2 percent on Friday, with U.S. crude gaining for a fourth straight week, after the world's energy watchdog said the market may have hit bottom, although Goldman Sachs said the 50 percent rally in under two months was "premature."

Special Report: The final days and deals of Aubrey McClendon

OKLAHOMA CITY (Reuters) - The night before Aubrey McClendon died, the oil-and-gas pioneer was expected at a private dinner here with potential business partners. Among them: Vicente Fox, the former president of Mexico.

GE Health targets profit margins, reversing weak performance

NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co's healthcare business said on Friday its top priority is lifting profit margins that were flat in recent years after it failed to cut costs sufficiently.

Intel plans to sell part of venture capital unit: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - Intel Corp is looking to sell part of its venture capital portfolio, assets that could be worth as much as $1 billion, Bloomberg reported.

Draghi-Dip-Buyers Send Stocks, Crude To 2016 Highs; Gold Slammed

Was there ever any doubt...

So this happened...

Yes it is all very exciting, but year-to-date, Gold is outperforming The Dow by 20ppt...

For the best year since 1974...

And since The Fed hiked rates...

And before we start, remember how excited everyone was in mid-September (before The Fed folded)...

h/t @NorthmanTr ...

"Stay Angry My Friends"

The last decade or two has been a failure...

For everyone apart from the elites...

Which created this...

Source: Townhall.com

Which is leading to this...

So stay angry my friends...

Source: Townhall.com

As we noted earlier, it seems more than a few are "angry"...

Trump rally. Literally the longest line I've ever seen. pic.twitter.com/eQlRFk2x24

— Trymaine Lee (@trymainelee)

What Does Nasdaq Know?

Nasdaq risk is dramatically higher than S&P risk at current levels. Despite the exuberant ramp of the last few weeks, the ratio of Nasdaq VIX to S&P VIX is at its highest in over 6 months.

This is worrisome since the last time Nasdaq traders were this much more concerned about future risk than S&P traders, was right before the August flash-crash collapse...

And if that wasn't enough, look where we are...

h/t @NorthmanTrader

A Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short: Here's Why

When we last looked at the $2.9 billion Horseman Capital, we reported that not only has the fund which many have called the "most bearish in the world" generated tremendous returns almost every single year since inception (except for a 25% drop in 2009 after returning 31% during the cataclysmic 2008), but more notably, it has achieved that return while been net short - and quite bearish on - stocks ever since 2012.

In that period it has consistently generated low double-digit returns, a feat virtually none of its competitors have managed to replicate. Its performance has put it in the top percentile of all hedge funds in recent years.

Furthermore, in a year most other hedge funds would love to forget, the fund "crushed it", with a 20.45% return for 2015 and 5.6% in the tumultuous month of December.

Today, we received Horseman's latest February numbers and the fund's outperformance has continued: in a very volatile month, in which many hedge funds were stopped out in both directions, Horseman returned a respectable 1.5%, after 8% the month before, and with a 9.6% YTD tally, it remains in the 99%+ percentile of returns for the year.

Outperforming the market is hardly new to Horseman: it has been doing so for four years in a row, and not surprisingly, 2015 was its best year since 2008. 2016 is starting off just as good as the prior year.

U.S. Stocks Rise on ECB, Economy

U.S. stocks rallied Friday as investors reassessed the impact of the European Central Bank's latest stimulus measures and the health of the U.S. economy.

Rally Surges on for European Bonds After ECB Move

European credit markets continued to rally following the European Central Bank's surprise announcement that it would start buying corporate bonds later this year.

Bank of America Jumps Back Into the Market For Acquisitions

In a push to upgrade its technology offerings, Bank of America is dispatching a top executive out west to look at possibly scooping up promising startup companies.

Market Snapshot: S&P 500, Dow rally to highest finish of 2016

The S&P 500 and Dow industrials close at their highest level of the year Friday, while all three main indexes recorded weekly gains for a fourth straight week in a rally largely fueled by a rebound in oil prices.

Bond Report: Treasury yields post longest streak of increases in 3 years

Treasury prices tumbled Friday, pushing yields higher for the fourth straight week "the longest streak of rising yields since May 2013 "as a rally in riskier assets, including equities and oil, led investors to sell haven assets.

Capitol Report: Warren Buffett has a book idea - what would happen if Merrill wasn't bought

There are all sorts of gems in the 103-page transcript of the interview Warren Buffett gave to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. One is a book pitch.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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