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04Mar2016 Market Update: Indicators Are Bullish, Crude In High 35's, DOW At Plus 90 Points, SP500 Up0.6%

Written by Gary

US markets opened fractionally higher, made the morning dip into negative territory and then climbed to session highs around 11:30 and have been trading sideways. Although solidly in the green, the Spooz and the DOW ave stopped/paused at their resistance, but are expected climb higher. WTI oil has climbed almost to $36 and appears to remain above 35.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 4.21% while Mexico's IPC is up 1.05% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.55%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 69%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 71%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 49.0% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

105.77 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 37.04% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 55.49% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 70.00% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 18.93 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 76.75 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 9,983

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Exclusive: Citigroup executives avoid U.S. charges over mortgage bonds - document

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. authorities have decided not to pursue criminal charges against any Citigroup Inc executives or employees involved in packaging and selling mortgage-backed securities at the heart of the 2008 financial crisis, a government report shows.

UK lawmakers say Facebook may have broken tax rules

LONDON (Reuters) - Facebook said it would ditch a corporate structure that helps minimize its UK tax bill, prompting lawmakers and campaigners to ask whether the arrangement had ever complied with UK tax rules.

U.S. payrolls surge, bolster Fed rate hike prospects

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment gains surged in February, the clearest sign yet of labor market strength that could further ease fears the economy was heading into recession and allow the Federal Reserve to gradually raise interest rates this year.

Wall Street higher in choppy trading after jobs data

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were higher in choppy trading on Friday as data showing the economy added more jobs than expected last month was tempered by a drop in wages and hours worked.

Pepco, Exelon maintain deal closing deadline amid regulatory scrutiny

(Reuters) - Pepco Holdings Inc, which is awaiting regulatory approval from Washington DC for its acquisition by Exelon Corp, said the two utilities have not extended the deadline to close the deal, but were in talks with state authorities.

U.S. moves to dismiss case against ex-Chesapeake CEO after his death

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department has filed a motion to dismiss a criminal indictment against former Chesapeake Energy Corp Chief Executive Officer Aubrey McClendon, who died in a car crash on Wednesday, one day after he was charged with breaking antitrust laws.

ECB rate meeting, Chinese data in focus

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is almost certain to ease policy next week as depressed commodity prices raise the risk of deflation, while a string of data from China will offer clues about the extent of the recent emerging market slowdown.

Goldman Sachs cutting up to 10 percent of fixed income trading staff: source

LONDON (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs is cutting between five and 10 percent of staff in its fixed income and currency trading business, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday.

Samsonite to buy Tumi for $1.8 billion as it expands premium luggage offerings

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Samsonite International S.A. said on Friday it would buy Tumi Holdings Inc for $26.75 per share in an all-cash transaction valuing Tumi at $1.8 billion, as the world's biggest luggage group expands in the luxury market.

The Best And Worst Performing Hedge Funds In 2016: All Hail The "Tulip Trend Fund"

With the S&P 500 set to go green for the year, the best and worst performing hedge funds of the year demonstrate that while the bulk of the marquee names continue to substantially underperfom the broader market, with Tiger, Pershing Square, Glenview and Trian standing out, there are quite a few names that have generated positive results YTD.

The full breakdown of Top and Bottom 20 funds is shown below courtesy of HSBC; we will spare commentary on the fact that the year's best performing hedge fund is called the Tulip Trend Fund, a systematic trend follower.

Complete marquee name summary:

And for those interested, here is the Tulip Trend Fund:

Why We're Ungovernable: The "Unprotected" Push Back

Submitted by John Rubino via,

Peggy Noonan, former Reagan administration speech writer and current Wall Street Journal pundit has, like most of her peers, been wondering what's gotten into the unwashed masses lately that makes them such unpredictable voters. And she's come up with a useful conclusion: The rise of Donald Trump (and similar iconoclasts in other countries) is due to the gradual division of society into the protected — that is, people who make the rules and therefore benefit from them — and the unprotected, who don't make the rules and end up getting screwed. The latter have finally figured this out and have stopped supporting the former. Here's her latest OpEd piece, in its entirety:

Trump and the Rise of the Unprotected: Why political professionals are struggling to make sense of the world they created.

We're in a funny moment. Those who do politics for a living, some of them quite brilliant, are struggling to comprehend the central fact of the Republican primary race, while regular people have already absorbed what has happened and is happening. Journalists and politicos have been sharing schemes for how Marco parlays a victory out of winning nowhere, or Ted roars back, or Kasich has to finish second in Ohio. But in my experience any nonpolitical person on the street, when asked who will win, not only knows but gets a look as if you're teasing him. Trump, they say.

I had such a conversation again Tuesday with a friend who repairs shoes in ...

WTI Crude Spikes To 2-Month Highs, Best Week Since August

For the seventh day in a row, WTI Crude futures have spiked dramatically intraday off a small dip. With April futures now up almost 9% on the week - the best since Aug 2015, crude is getting closer to unchanged on 2016 (at 2-month highs)...

Greek Stocks Soar Into Bull Market

Following the best 5-day performance of all 93 major global equity markets, the panic-buying in the Greek stock market has lifted the Athens Stock Exchange index over 32% in 3 weeks...

As is clear, we have seen this kind of exuberance before (in Sept/Oct) - and that did not end well.

U.S. Stocks Gain After Jobs Report

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above 17000 for the first time in nearly two months on Friday as data showed the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in February.

Analysis: Jobs Report Could Put April, June Rate Increases in Play

Friday's jobs report is the latest piece of good economic news for the Fed and reinforces the notion that the U.S. economy is getting stronger despite turbulence abroad.

Jobs Report and the Fed: Slow Down to Speed Up

The February jobs report was good enough to prove wrong recent fears the U.S. is in danger of slipping into recession, but the Federal Reserve still needs to tread carefully on raising rates.

26 February 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Insignificant Decline

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - continued its decline in negative territory (although insignificant decline this week). This index now spent 30 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released its inflation gauge this week.

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