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26Feb2016 Market Update: SP500 Can Not Rise Above Resistance, Markets In The Green, But Low Volume Indicates Investor Doubts On A Continued Bull Run

Written by Gary

Earlier, in the pre-market arena, the futures attempted to break through the upper resistance on many major indexes. Markets then opened somewhat lower than the premarket numbers, but still in the green and then slid to the unchanged line. Here is the problem. The Spooz's resistance lies between 1950 and 1960 and is unable, at this point, to go higher after a failed attempt at 11:15 this morning on falling volume.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.29% while the S&P 500 gains 0.17%. The Bovespa is off 0.65%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 62%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 58%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 38.2%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

74.04

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 27.50%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 44.80%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 57.40%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 17.75
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 75.02
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 9,666

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Apple encryption stand highlights mobile operators' dilemma

BARCELONA (Reuters) - Apple Inc's stance on privacy in the face of a U.S. government demand to unlock an iPhone belonging to one of the San Bernardino attackers has raised awkward questions for the world's mobile network operators.

Oil up on outages, equities rally; big week for U.S crude

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil rose about 2 percent on Friday, with U.S. crude futures headed for their largest weekly gain in seven years, after disruptions to crude supplies from Iraq and Nigeria, and after U.S. economic data lifted Wall Street.

EU-U.S. trade deal on course for this year - negotiators

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - EU and U.S. negotiators seeking a transatlantic free trade agreement expressed cautious optimism on Friday that they could resolve most issues by July, which could lead to a conclusion of a deal by the end of the year.

Wall Street gains on strong GDP data; oil eases

(Reuters) - Wall Street inched higher on Friday after data showed that a slowdown in U.S. economic growth was not as bad as expected, but gains were capped as oil prices came off sessions highs.

Samsung wins appeal in patent dispute with Apple

(Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court on Friday overturned a $120 million jury verdict against Samsung, finally handing the South Korean smartphone maker a significant win in its longstanding patent feud with top rival Apple.

Private equity sees risks and reward in uncertain times

BERLIN (Reuters) - As anxiety over a slowing global economy grows, private equity players are looking to swoop on distressed assets but are fearful that funding could dry up.

U.S. consumer spending gains steam; inflation stirring

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in January and underlying inflation picked up by the most in four years, keeping Federal Reserve interest rate increases on the table this year.

Alibaba in talks with several banks for up to $4 billion loan: WSJ

(Reuters) - Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is in talks with several banks to borrow up to $4 billion to fund expansion plans, including acquisitions, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Economic Recovery? 13 Of The Biggest Retailers In America Are Closing Down Stores

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Barack Obama recently stated that anyone that is claiming that America's economy is in decline is "peddling fiction". Well, if the economy is in such great shape, why are major retailers shutting down hundreds of stores all over the country?

Last month, I wrote about the "retail apocalypse" that is sweeping the nation, but since then it has gotten even worse. Closing stores has become the "hot new trend" in the retail world, and "space available" signs are going up in mall windows all over the United States. Barack Obama can continue huffing and puffing about how well the middle class is doing all he wants, but the truth is that the cold, hard numbers that retailers are reporting tell an entirely different story.

Earlier today, Sears Chairman Eddie Lampert released a letter to shareholders that was filled with all kinds of bad news. In this letter, he blamed the horrible results that Sears has been experiencing lately on "tectonic shifts" in consumer spending...

In a letter to shareholders on Thursday, Lampert ...

Rate-Hike Odds Surge To Highest Since January

Be careful what you wish for: equity exuberance (the biggest short-squeeze in 5 years) has circled back to create the circumstances for its own demise as The Fed is increasingly cornered by rising income, rising spending, low unemployment, and high inflation. Rate-hike odds have surged back to their highest since January, and with December rate hike odds jumping back over 50% following the Japan NIRP crash, imply there is now a greater than half probability of another rate hike in 2016.

Time for a sell-off before the March FOMC...

Hedge Funds Suffer $25Bn In Redemptions As Total Assets Drop To Lowest Since May 2014

Is the "2 and 20" model finally dying?

After not only underperforming the market by 7 years in a row, but generally disappointing even relative to benchmarks, the hedge fund industry started off 2016 with such a deplorable P&L whimper that has even eclipsed the first months of the financial crisis.

Worse, after years of investors stoically refusing to redeem their money from underperforming hedge funds, their patience appears to have run out and according to eVestment data cited by Bloomberg, investors pulled a net $21.5 billion, the most in the opening month of a year since 2009, while losses led to a $43.2 billion drop in assets under management. Notably, hedge funds that suffered losses last year were hit by redemptions worth $24.8 billion in January.

As a result, assets managed by hedge funds globally last month fell to $2.96 trillion at the end of January; this is the first time the hedge fund industry has managed less than $3 trillion in AUM since May 2014.

As Bloomberg adds, equity, fixed-income and multistrategy hedge funds suffered net outflows, though interest in those betting on commodities rose for the fifth straight month in January as investors pledged $1.2 billion, the most since mid-2014.

"This is a major reversal of a trend which dates back to mid-2012, eVestment said in a statement on Friday. œHedge fund investors appear to firmly believe there are significant opportunities in the commodity space."

The surge of outside capital into commodities may explain why despite ong ...

U.S. Stocks Headed Toward Second Straight Week of Gains

U.S. stocks were on pace to post their second straight week of gains Friday, buoyed by the recent rally in the price of oil.

Market Turmoil Eases, but Investors Remain Wary

Poor earnings, persistent volatility and turbulence in the market for lower-rated corporate bonds have investors fearful the newfound resilience may be short-lived.

Why Oil Prices Will Leave a Mark at Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway

Berkshire Hathaway's annual results Saturday will give investors a closer look at how Warren Buffett is coping with what could be the market's biggest problem: oil.

Futures Movers: Oil climbs, set for second straight weekly gain

Oil prices tick higher, with hopes that major producers will agree to limit output and upbeat U.S. economic data setting up WTI for a second weekly gain in a row.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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