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19Feb2016 Market Update: US Averages Mixed, DOW Down And Trading Sideways, NASDAQ Up 0.3%, WTI Crude Off Morning Highs, Investors Concerned About US Being Able To Sustain Growth

Written by Gary

US averages are mixed with the DOW down 50 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points, both indexes trending higher. WTI crude has slipped off its morning high (32.97) to trade in the high 31's most likely because GS believe crude will go lower.

Investors worried about a global slowdown will keep them focused on early indicators of stress looking for signs that resilient domestic demand in Europe and the U.S. can sustain growth.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are lower today with shares in Mexico off the most. The IPC is down 0.37% while Brazil's Bovespa is off 0.34% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is lower by 0.15%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 54%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 49%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 32.9%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

57.34

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 23.36%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 36.39%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 47.00%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value

17.60

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 72.52
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 9,471

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

The 'great engine game' behind new Boeing jet project

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Aircraft engine makers are placing bets that could reshape their industry for decades as Boeing weighs a novel design for an airplane with 240-250 seats - a neglected area of the jet market.

NYSE drops proposal to flag 'aberrant' trading in ETFs: regulators

(Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange has withdrawn a proposal that would have allowed it to flag "aberrant" pricing of exchange-traded funds, according to a filing this week.

Firming U.S. inflation keeps Fed rate hike on the table

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rising rents and healthcare costs lifted underlying U.S. inflation in January by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years, signs of a pick-up in price pressures that could allow the Federal Reserve to gradually raise interest rates this year.

Wall St. falls with oil; CPI data stokes rate hike talk

(Reuters) - The Dow and S&P 500 slipped on Friday morning as a renewed slide in oil prices weighed on energy and materials stocks and prospects of a rate hike this year were rekindled by data pointing to firmer inflation trends.

Yahoo forms panel to explore strategic options

(Reuters) - Yahoo Inc said its board has formed a committee of independent directors to explore strategic alternatives, the struggling Internet company's latest step to buy time from increasingly impatient investors.

GM ignition-switch plaintiffs ask to revise early trial plan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lawyers for plaintiffs suing General Motors over a faulty ignition switch are seeking alternatives to a plan to try five more early test cases in federal litigation against GM over the issue, after a first trial fell apart unexpectedly.

China's top securities regulator stepping down: WSJ

(Reuters) - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Xiao Gang, is stepping down, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Chinese officials with direct knowledge of the matter.

Citigroup to exit retail banking in Brazil, Argentina

(Reuters) - Citigroup Inc said it plans to exit its retail banking and credit card operations in Brazil, Argentina and Colombia as part of its efforts to cut costs and boost profitability.

Seeking evidence of the slowdown

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Worries about a global slowdown will keep investors focused on early indicators of stress next week, looking for signs that resilient domestic demand in Europe and the U.S. can sustain growth in spite of emerging markets struggles.

Brexit!? France & Germany Cannot Wait

Via GEFIRA,

If London decides to leave the European Union nobody in Europe will even notice. Great Britain is an entirely separate country, isolated from the European Union and does not participate in the Euro or Schengen Agreement. The European Union as a political platform is disintegrating and becoming more and more irrelevant and will be displaced by the European Monetary Union (EMU).

The center of power in Europe has shifted from the EU to the EMU and London politicians are fully aware of it. A Brexit will accelerate the process of political integration of the EMU members and make the EU politically less significant. Over the past decade we saw:


  1. Countries can enter the European Union;

    The very core values of the European Union can be set aside as we saw happening in Turkey just before the European Commission announced to restart Turkey's accession negotiations;

    Trade relations with Great Britain can be suspended without any upheaval, as we saw it concerning non-EU member Russia;

    Borders can be opened and closed as is the case in south-east Europe due to the refugee crisis;

    The Dublin Regulation can be dissolved overnight in the face of the fact that more than a million refugees have entered Europe since the summer of 2015;

All these events hardly changed the life of the Europeans. Being a member of the European Monetary Union is of another magnitude. The Greek euro crisis changed the lives of millions of Greeks. During the tense days in July 2015, when the future of Greece, the EMU and indirect the future of Europe was at stake, Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande held 24 hours emergency meetings as did the Eurogroup. Great Britain and the European Parliament did not play any role whatsoever in these decisive mome ...

Venezuela's Bogus Inflation Statistics

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

On Thursday, Venezuela's central bank released a long-overdue -- and little-trusted -- report claiming that the country's inflation rate in 2015 was 180.9%. Unfortunately, for the global community, as high as this figure sounds, it is way below the true inflation rate.

Through a confluence of incompetence and widespread corruption, the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) has shown time and time again that it can't be trusted. Bogus inflation statistics are nothing new.

The only reliable method for calculating inflation in countries where the rates are elevated, like Venezuela, is to observe changes in the black market (read: free
market) exchange-rate data. These changes can then be translated into implied inflation rates. It's nothing more than an application of standard purchasing power parity (PPP) theory. When inflation is elevated, it is deadly accurate. Using the PPP approach, I have calculated that Venezuela's 2015 inflation rate was 384.7% - a far cry from the 180.9% that the government reported on Thursday.

As the accompanying chart indicates, the Banco Central de Venezuela has vastly underestimated inflation for 2015. Most of the investment banks' guestimates aren't much better. Like most big inflations, Venezuela's will end in tears.

Blue Chips Lower, but on Pace for Weekly Gains

U.S. stocks slipped lower Friday, but markets remained on track to end the week with solid gains. Energy stocks in the S&P were down the most, about 1.6%, after Thursday's supply data.

CFPB Tries to Play Nice With Fintech Firms

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says it will try to make it easier for firms to introduce new consumer-finance products with a process aimed at reducing uncertainty about how regulators will view them.

Eurozone Supervisor Ordered Major Banks to Increase Capital Levels

Europe's new banking watchdog has ordered the biggest eurozone banks to increase their capital levels by 0.5 percentage point on average after a yearlong assessment of their risks.

Europe Markets: European stocks decline, but lock in best week in more than a year

European equities fall as oil prices slide again, but stocks still end with a strong weekly win.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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