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31Dec2015 Market Update: U.S. Averages Down, WTI Oil Up, Baker Hughes Reports Another Decline In Rig Count

Written by Gary

US averages remain in the red, but have closed the gap of losses from this morning opening. The DOW is down 58 points and the small caps are only off fractionally as WTI climbs to new session highs (mid 37's). The fly in the ointment is the Supply Management-Chicago's gauge of factory activity in the Midwest region slipped to 42.9 in December from 48.7 the month prior adding more worries to long term investors.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are lower today with shares in Brazil off the most. The Bovespa is down 0.70% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is off 0.23% and Mexico's IPC is lower by 0.08%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 50%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 50%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish

40.2%

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +24.11
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 32.16%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 44.94%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 56.80%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.71
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.72
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,193

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Oil market to end 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Thursday but were still headed for a second year of steep declines after a race to pump by Middle East crude producers and U.S. shale oil drillers created an unprecedented global glut that may take through 2016 to clear.

Swiss bank Lombard Odier to pay $100 million to resolve U.S. tax probe

ZURICH (Reuters) - Swiss private bank Lombard Odier said it would pay $99.8 million under a non-prosecution agreement with U.S. authorities to settle an investigation into allegations it helped wealthy American clients evade taxes.

Apple shares to close year with worst performance since 2008

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Apple Inc, the largest U.S. company by market value, are set to finish the year in the red on notable weakness for a stock that had largely been impervious to pain for several years.

S&P 500 heads for a flat end to volatile 2015

(Reuters) - Wall Street slipped lower in thin trading on Thursday, with the S&P 500 heading for an almost flat ending to a volatile year of record highs and steep drops.

Global stocks slip to close year mixed; oil up modestly to end ugly 2015

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock and bond markets in major economies were set to close 2015 with a mixed performance, while oil prices and emerging markets cemented big losses during a year that provided few safe places for investors.

American Airlines merges operations of unit U.S. Airways

(Reuters) - American Airlines Group Inc said its unit U.S. Airways Group merged with the company, as part of efforts to integrate operations of the businesses following a merger in 2013.

Champagne sales set for record year

PARIS (Reuters) - Champagne sales are set for a record year, driven by solid demand from export markets, favorable currencies and stabilizing sales in France, the fizzy drink's home market.

VW scandal could kill U.S. diesel car market, Continental CEO says

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen's emissions test-cheating scandal could kill nascent markets for diesel cars in North America, Japan and China, the chief executive of automotive supplier Continental has told a German newspaper.

WTI Fades Fast After Rig Count Decline Continues

After melting up to pre-API levels this morning, crude prices are falling back (and therefore so are stocks) as Baker Hughes reports another weekly decline in rig count. After surging by 17 three weeks ago, the 2 rig decline in oil rigs in America continues to track the lagged crude oil price.

Rig count continues decline...

Seems like the algos have run out of stops to run...

Dow on Track for Loss in 2015

Stocks around the world fell on the last day of the year, as the Dow industrials headed for their first annual drop since 2008.

Bond Bears Hope for Relief in 2016

The resilience of the bond market continues to confound many bond bears, offering a cautionary tale for investors and traders betting on lower bond prices in 2016.

From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen

As the oil glut has sent prices to decade lows, plummeting investment by oil producers means fewer barrels will be pumped.

25 December 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Declined Remaining In Negative Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - declined marginally and remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its 20th week in negative territory.

Futures Movers: Oil bounces in bid to end brutal 2015 on positive note

Oil futures erase early losses to trade higher in final session of 2015, but remain on track to post a second year of heavy losses.

Market Snapshot: S&P 500 yearly winning streak a coin toss in final session of 2015

The S&P 500 struggles to see a fractional gain for the year after turning lower in the final trading session of 2015, threatening the index's longest yearly winning streak since 2007.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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