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23Dec2015 Pre-Market Commentary: US Futures Up, WTI Oil Up, US Dollar Up , Gold Down And Markets To Open Higher

Written by Gary

US stock future indexes are fractionally up this morning as is WTI oil. West Texas Intermediate yesterday's settled at a premium to its global counterpart Brent crude for the first time in more than five years, and the spread between the two benchmarks is now nonexistent. I expect the markets will open higher.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are sharply higher today with shares in London leading the region. The FTSE 100 is up 2.15% while France's CAC 40 is up 2.08% and Germany's DAX is up 1.82%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Oil up after U.S. crude stocks drop, still close to multi-year lows

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, underpinned by an unexpected fall in U.S. crude inventories but were still close to multi-year lows as supplies remained abundant and as OPEC lowered the demand outlook for its exports.

Global stocks extend rally, oil edges off 11-year low

LONDON (Reuters) - Global stocks extended a rally into a third day on Wednesday as oil edged away from 11-year lows and the dollar eked out minor gains in trade gradually winding down for the holidays.

Futures higher as crude extends recovery

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Wednesday as crude oil prices continued to rebound and investors awaited a slew of economic data.

OPEC's market share to shrink by 2020 as rivals keep pumping despite oil's collapse

LONDON (Reuters) - Global demand for OPEC's crude will be lower in 2020 than next year as supply from rivals proves more resilient than expected, potentially fuelling a debate on the merits of its strategy to let prices fall to hurt other producers.

Record highs predicted for bitcoin in 2016 as new supply halves

LONDON (Reuters) - 2016 could prove to be the year that the price of bitcoin surges again. Not because of any dark-web drug-dealing or Russian ponzi scheme, but for an altogether less sensational reason - slower growth in the money supply.

HK pips New York as world's biggest IPO capital, 2016 outlook strong

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong replaced New York this year as the world's biggest IPO market by the amount of funds raised, buoyed by Chinese banks and other financial firms, with the deal pipeline pointing to a stronger year ahead.

Turing Pharma seeks CEO to replace Shkreli, plans job cuts

(Reuters) - Turing Pharmaceuticals said on Tuesday it is seeking a new chief executive to replace Martin Shkreli, the price-gouging entrepreneur who is facing U.S. charges of securities fraud, and will cut jobs in a restructuring.

Nike's futures orders surge as demand in China, North America soars

(Reuters) - Nike Inc , the world's largest footwear maker, reported futures orders that breezed past analysts' estimates, powered by strong demand in North America and China.

Key Global Equity Index Back On The Precipice

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

An index that tracks the world's largest stocks is testing its post-2009 uptrend...again.

The "markets move at random" crowd generally has a difficult time with our posts wherein we lay out price movement scenarios based upon charting analyses. Any reluctant concessions on their part typically center around the "self-fulfilling prophesy" notion. That is, technical analysis only works because so many market participants are watching the same chart levels that their effectiveness is "self-fulfilling". We disagree. We don't think it's that easy. If everyone is watching the same levels, and they work, then everyone is winning. We all know that's not a market reality.

In fact, we have found an inverse relationship between the popularity of a technical analysis tool, a chart level or even a security itself and the effectiveness in their exploitation. In our experience, obscure securities - or even price plots that nobody trades at all - are more conforming to technical tools. That idea really confounds the "random crowd". As an example, we offer up the Global Dow Index.

As a refresher, the Global Dow is an unweighted average of 150 of the world's largest companies. And although there is naturally a massive amount of money traded in its components, there is very little money directly tied to the index itself. So what possible reason would there be for the index to "respect" key technical levels on its chart? We have no idea - it just does. And while that reason may be wholly inadequate for the random crowd, it's plenty satisfactory for us.

Whatever the reason, the Global Dow has conformed to technical chart levels very c ...

Someone Bets Big On $15 Crude As OPEC Forecasts Oil Demand Slumping Until 2020

In OPEC's latest annual World Oil Outlook released on Wednesday, the now defunct cartel (courtesy of Saudi Arabia's insistence on vetoing any production limit) said that demand for its crude will slide to 2020, as rival supplies continue to grow. On the supply side, OPEC said it would need to pump 30.7 million barrels a day by the end of the decade, which is 1.7 million barrels more than it projected a year ago but well below, or some 1 million barrels less than the group pumped in November.

As Bloomberg notes, this latest forecast underlines the struggle faced by OPEC as it seeks to defend market share against a surge in output from rivals such as the U.S. and Russia. As a reminder, one of the most unexpected outcomes of the recent collapse in oil prices is that while the Saudis had hoped non-OPEC production would plunge, the opposite has happened in the race to the bottom in which Russian oil production just hit a record while US shale production has remained steady even as the number of oil rigs has plunged to multi-year lows.

"Although lower oil prices continue to foster some demand growth, their impact seems to be limited by other factors, the group said. œThe removal of subsidies and price controls on petroleum products in some countries and ongoing efficiency improvements will all likely continue restricting oil demand growth.

As a result of the frail balance between declining demand and rising supply, the 30.7 million barrels of daily output needed from 12 of OPEC's members in 2020 is about 300,000 a day less than required this year, when it repeatedly pumped above its production target before scrappi ...

Frontrunning: December 23



Oil up after U.S. crude stocks drop, still close to 11-year lows (Reuters)

Global Stocks Rally; Mining, Metals Shares Lead Gains (WSJ)

OPEC Sees Demand for Its Crude Oil Falling for Rest of Decade (BBG)

The Trouble With Sovereign-Wealth Funds (WSJ)

U.S. Calls for 256% Tariff on Imports of Steel From China (BBG)

Iraqi troops expected to drive ISIS from Ramadi in days (Reuters)

The Distressed-Debt Trades That Obliterated Bonus Checks in 2015 (BBG)

China to Extend Yuan's Trading Hours, Widening Currency's Appeal (WSJ)

Tighter Borders in Europe Create Migrant Bottleneck in Greece (WSJ)

Russian court orders arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky over contract killing (Reuters)

Spain's PM Rajoy meets Socialist leader over potential pact (Reuters)

Afr ...

Global Stocks Rally; Mining, Metals Shares Lead Gains

Global stocks rallied as rising commodities prices boosted major indexes on the last full trading day before the Christmas holiday.

How to Bet on Oil: Don't

Some traders anticipating a rebound in oil are making an indirect bet: wagering on energy companies and the currencies of oil-producing nations instead of the commodity itself.

The Trouble With Sovereign-Wealth Funds

Sovereign-wealth funds proliferated with oil's rise. Now some are troubled, but the opacity of many such funds makes them a black box in global markets.

Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Advance, European Stocks Look Up, Bonds To Beat Stocks 2nd Year In A Row, Euro Near Bottom, Assad "Can Stay", Loonie Looks Down And More

Written by Econintersect

Early Bird Headlines 23 December 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Futures Movers: Oil extends gains after OPEC predicts rebound to $70 a barrel

Oil reaps gains on hopes of the U.S. becoming an oil exporter again and on expectations of a decline in stockpiles there

Economic Report: Consumer spending, inflation both pick up

Consumer spending rebounded in November after flatlining in the prior month, but inflation accelerated as well.

Economic Report: Orders for durable goods flatline in November

Businesses remain skittish about making big investments: Orders for durable or long-lasting U.S.-made goods such as computers and heavy machinery softened again in November.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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