Volatility is the 'go' word for today's session. The large caps dipped down to the 2055 SP500 support level and solidly reversed course along with crude oil only to seriously start sliding back to test support again. WTI briefly topped out at 38.57, scaring the shorts off the inverse ETF traders. It appears we will see more trading in WTI's 36's range again as China's woes and the oil glut remain in focus. Expect further lower prices, volatility today and the week ahead.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money
$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. labor force growth is set to slow further over the next decade as more Americans retire, which will confine the economy to a moderate growth path, according to government report on Tuesday.
(Reuters) - A federal appeals court on Tuesday overturned the conviction of a former Jefferies Group Inc trader accused of lying to investors about mortgage bond prices, in a setback to government efforts to fight Wall Street fraud after the financial crisis.
DETROIT (Reuters) - Union workers at Nexteer Automotive's complex in Saginaw, Michigan, walked off the job early Tuesday after rejecting a proposed contract, halting production of steering systems and other components essential to vehicle production by General Motors Co and other automakers.
LONDON (Reuters) - Falling incomes in the U.S. will make it more challenging for farmers to hold stocks as they wait for prices to recover from current depressed levels, U.S. Department of Agriculture chief economist Robert Johansson said.
The day of reckoning has arrived for the oil price with the head and shoulders pattern I have been tracking for two months finally being completed in recent weeks. It became a rather drawn out affair with markets awaiting the outcome of the OPEC meeting of 4 December where OPEC elected to stay the course and do nothing. With WTI closing at $40 and Brent on $43 on Friday both are testing support levels. WTI in particular has had strong support at $40 in recent weeks. Should this support be broken then another major down leg is to be expected to the vicinity of $20. I can see nothing in the numbers presented below to provide hope that $40 may hold. The market remains over-supplied and awash in oil. Lower price is required to remove supply from the market.
World total liquids production up 240,000 bpd to 97.09 Mbpd, a new record high.
OPEC production down 20,000 bpd to 31.72 Mbpd (C+C)
N America production up 260,000 bpd to 19.66 Mbpd.
Russia and FSU up 90,000 bpd to 14.01 Mbpd
Europe down 10,000 bpd to 3.40 Mbpd (compared with October 2014)
Asia down 50,000 bpd to 7.99 Mbpd.
Middle East rig count is rising. The international oil rig count is stable. The US oil rig count is falling.
Figure 1 The oil price has trended down this month in a saw tooth pattern to support levels and to complete the head and shoulders pattern. Friday's close was just above the near term lows of $38.22 for WTI and $41.59 for Brent, both on August 24th. If these lo ...
The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be used as a predictor of future jobs growth, and the predictive elements show that the year-over-year growth rate of unadjusted private non-farm job openings declined from last month. The growth rate trends are decelerating in the 3 month averages, decelerating in the 2015 averages, and decelerating in the year-over-year averages.
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