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30Nov2015 Pre-Market Commentary: What Will Cyber Monday Bring?

Written by Gary

There is a lot of dynamics out there but so far the USA markets look to open in the green. Global markets are mixed, and the big spoiler today seems to be the offshore Chinese Yuan after PBOC intervention.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is up 1.00% while France's CAC 40 is up 0.70% and London's FTSE 100 is up 0.02%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

BlackBerry delays Pakistan shutdown as talks on government access continue

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - BlackBerry Ltd will delay shutting down its operations in Pakistan until Dec. 30 as negotiations continue over government demands for access to users' private data, the company and the telecoms authority said on Monday.

Dollar rises versus euro, oil drops before ECB, OPEC meetings

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit its strongest since mid-March against its peers at the start of a week likely to highlight the divergent outlooks for U.S. and euro zone interest rates, while oil fell with OPEC ministers expected to keep the pumps on.

Fed to take up 'too big to fail' emergency lending curb

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Board will consider on Monday a proposal to curb its emergency lending powers, a change demanded by Congress after the central bank's controversial decision to aid AIG , Citigroup and others in 2008.

U.S. holiday sales on track amid online boost: NRF survey

(Reuters) - U.S. holiday shopping is on track for a modest 3.7 percent rise this year after strong turnout during the Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend and thanks to strong online sales, the National Retail Federation said on Sunday after releasing an annual consumer poll.

IMF's yuan inclusion signals less risk taking in China

SHANGHAI/NEW YORK (Reuters) - When the International Monetary Fund agrees on Monday to add the Chinese yuan to its reserves basket in the biggest shake-up in more than three decades, the IMF can afford itself a congratulatory nod.

Holiday shopping unlikely to cheer many investors

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The holiday shopping rush that kicked off on Friday is unlikely to bring much cheer to investors looking for a revival in retail stocks.

Baby boon: mini-vans the next big thing as China eases one-child policy

GUANGZHOU, China (Reuters) - Automakers are betting that Chinese families will embrace the mini-van, hoping the larger, unsexy sibling of the bestselling SUV will become the next big thing just as Beijing relaxes the one-child policy.

U.S. online shopping rivals store trips: NRF survey

(Reuters) - An equal number of U.S. shoppers sought to buy items online as they did in physical stores over the Thanksgiving weekend, according to a closely watched survey by the leading retail industry lobby, highlighting the growing importance of e-commerce during the crucial holiday shopping season.

VW knew fuel usage in some cars was too high a year ago: report

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Volkswagen's top executives knew a year ago that some of the company's cars were markedly less fuel efficient than had been officially stated, Sunday paper Bild am Sonntag reported, without specifying its sources.

Paul Craig Roberts Rages At The "Arrogance, Hubris, & Stupidity" Of The US Government

On the heels of the Chinese stock market plunging 5.5%, continued turmoil in the Middle East and the price of gold hitting 5 year lows, former U.S. Treasury official, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts told Eric King of King World News that Putin and the Russians are now dominating in Syria and the Middle East as the West destroys itself.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: "It could well be that this is going to work out so much in Russia's favor that Putin will send a letter of thanks to the Turkish President and say, 'Thank you very much. You've done us a huge favor. (Laughter). We lost a pilot and a naval marine but we sure have gained a lot. That was only two deaths for winning a war."...

"So that looks to me like the most likely outcome. The unintended consequence of this are so positive for Russia that it's got Washington quaking and Europe wondering about the idiocy of being in NATO."

Eric King: "What I'm hearing from you Russia is dominating in Syria. The Russians have completely taken over and there's really nothing Washington can do."

Argentines Stumped By Mystery Trucks Loaded With $130 Million In "High Denomination" Bills

Apparently taking a page out of the Spanish government's playbook, Argentines in the Santa Cruz region were surprised yesterday afternoon when at least five bright yellow armored trucks accompanied by heavily armed police paraded through the city. Just weeks after Kirchner's Peroniost government lost the election, and coming after five office fires (destroying banking and economic files from the current regime), local press reports the trucks loaded up with $130 million of banknotes at the airport and driven to banks in the region where outgoing President Kirchner's sister-in-law is governor. Amid comments by the central bank that there are no reserves left, and ongoing discussions of larger banknote denominations and (implied 50% devaluations), one could only speculate where the officially "business-as-usual" transfer of $100s of millions of banknotes will end up.

Chinese Stocks Tumble As Offshore Yuan Surges Most In 2 Months After Apparent PBOC Intervention

Update - Chinese stocks continue to plunge...

Aside from 3 very small adjustments, The PBOC has fixed the Yuan weaker for the last 20 days, driving the mid-line to 6.3962 - the weakest since August 28th.

Which was followed bya massive intervention sending Offshore Yuan 0.35% higher and crushing the Onshore-Offshore spread...

Just ridiculous that PBOC is intervening in CNH hours before IMF adds a "free market" Yuan to SDR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 30, 2015

As Offshore Yuan strengtnens most in 2 months...

After Chinese stocks collapsed on Friday, they are holding the losses for now as the biggest question remains just what the weighting will be fo ...

It's Official: Chinese Buyers Have Left The U.S. Housing Market

Overnight the NYT wrote a gargantuan, 3,800-word piece titled "Chinese Cash Floods U.S. Real Estate Market" discussing the impact of Chinese buyers on the US housing market. There are just two problems with the NYT's herculean effort: i) it is 5 years late in covering a topic this website has discussed extensively since 2010, and ii) it is wrong.

Recall that as we forecast in our take on a post-devaluation China in early September, with Beijing now actively cracking down on hot money outflows and instituting draconian capital controls, two things would happen: bitcoin - as China's most recent preferred mechanism of circumventing capital controls - would surge (it did), and Chinese investment in offshore real estate would tumble.

It has.

Because while the NYT was writing an article titled "Chinese Cash Floods U.S. Real Estate Market" that should have been published in 2010, the WSJ came out with a far more accurate piece, titled the opposite of the NYT piece, i.e., "Chinese Pull Back From U.S. Property Investments" about how Chinese buyers are no longer the marginal buyer of high end US real estate.

Here, just as we predicted, is a summary of the state of the US housing market and the one key support pillar which is no longer there.

Forget Going Public, U.S. Companies Want to Get Bought

U.S. companies are dropping initial public offerings and selling themselves at the highest rate in three years, underscoring the gap between volatile financial markets and a booming merger business.

Global Stocks Little Changed

Global stocks were little changed ahead of a much-anticipated European Central Bank meeting later in the week, with hopes for more stimulus in the eurozone canceling out weakness in the mining sector.

OPEC Is Ready to Rumble Over Saudi Output

Pressure is building on Saudi Arabia to rein in its oil output after a year of pumping full tilt, setting up the most contentious OPEC meeting in years this week.

Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Decline, Price Of Climate Control, US Oil Surplus Continues, EU Coalition Of The Willing, London Regulatory Fines Surge And More

Written by Econintersect

Early Bird Headlines 30 November 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Apple Stock Is A 10-Year Short

from EconMatters, EconMatters.com

Holiday Melt Up in Stocks

Apple and most stocks do routinely well during the 4th quarter, and especially the last couple of months of trading after earnings are out, and the fund managers are pushing everything up with the goal of making their trading numbers by year end window dressing.

Need to Know: These stocks are crushing it, just like before the dot-com bust

Last week's tryptophanic slumber gives way to what should be a turbulent stretch for markets, as the Fed, OPEC and a batch of macro numbers, including Friday's jobs report, take the spotlight.

Market Snapshot: Wall Street eyes cautious start to week of central bank watching

Investors look set to pause upon return from a Thanksgiving break to a huge lineup of economic events, including a European Central Bank meeting, jobs data and a speech from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

Futures Movers: Oil prices higher ahead of central bank, OPEC meetings

Many analysts are predicting a “lower for longer†scenario in the face global oversupply amid softening demand.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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