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24Nov2015 Market Update: US Averages Melt Up To Flat Status, DOW Up 2 Points, Oil In Low 43's And Expected To Fall Again

Written by Gary

Global jitters regarding Russian jet being shot down, the oil glut, weak 3rd quarter financial's and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declining have struck a nerve in investors. Oil has only risen fractionally and the US dollar remains stable and trading sideways. We expect the Turkey shooting incident to go away, but weak markets will remain.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are lower today with shares in Mexico off the most. The IPC is down 0.36% while Brazil's Bovespa is off 0.26% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is lower by 0.12%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 62%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 56%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 47.8%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +2.02
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 36.29%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 53.25%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 67.00%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.36
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 81.16
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,424

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Swatch signs pact with Visa on payment watch: report

ZURICH (Reuters) - Swatch Group Chief Executive Nick Hayek has signed a contract with credit card company Visa Inc. in connection with the Swiss firm's new watch that enables wearers to make payments, a newspaper reported on Tuesday.

U.S. GDP growth raised for third quarter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at a healthier clip in the third quarter than initially thought, but strong inventory accumulation by businesses could temper expectations of an acceleration in growth in the final three months of the year.

Car emissions campaigners turn sights on Renault

BERLIN/LONDON (Reuters) - Renault's flagship Espace minivan released toxic diesel emissions 25 times legal limits in a Swiss study, despite complying with EU tests carried out at unrealistically low engine temperatures, a German environmental group said on Tuesday.

Global security tensions weigh on indexes

(Reuters) - U.S. shares weakened in cautious trading on Tuesday as nervous investors sought low-risk assets after Turkish jets shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border.

DraftKings hires Exiger to review financial controls, compliance

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Daily fantasy sports company DraftKings said on Tuesday it hired regulatory risk and compliance firm Exiger to conduct a review of its financial, operational, compliance and risk controls, as the company and its top competitor, FanDuel, have come under fire from state and federal regulators.

Dollar Tree sales beat estimates after Family Dollar deal

(Reuters) - Dollar Tree Inc reported better-than-expected net sales for the third quarter, its first since acquiring Family Dollar and becoming the largest discount retailer in the United States.

Campbell Soup raises profit forecast as cost cuts boost margins

(Reuters) - Campbell Soup Co reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year earnings forecast on Tuesday, helped by cost-cutting measures introduced in July.

Valeant Just Won't Stop Falling

Despite Ackman's triple-down, Valeant has given up all the after-hours' gains and is rapidly losing last week's "buying spree" dead-cat-bounce rally as Pershing's newly synthetic position in the troubled stock moves deeper in the red...

As we noted previously, Pershing's position 'proxies' 34.12 million shares at an average cost of $113.76...

Although his exposure is dramatically non-linear should things not work out (and note he remains even more drastically underwater still even on this newly acquired position).

Sudden Buying-Panic Lifts Dow Into Green As Algos Ignore Turkish "Hostile Act"

It appears the "hostile act" in Turkey was not enough to keep the dip-buyers from bidding The Dow back into the green for the day. Nasdaq and the S&P are still lagging... as is the credit market.

As soon as Europe closed, stocks surged...

Of course, the machines will be looking to take out the stops from pre-Russia...

Oil Prices Rise on Turkey Jet Shooting

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after the Turkish military shot down a Russian jet fighter along the Syrian border and the dollar weakened.

Stocks Fall as Turkey Downs Jet

Global stock markets fell as the Turkish military shot down a jet fighter along the Syrian border, potentially raising geopolitical tensions.

J.P. Morgan Warns It Could Unplug Quicken and Quickbooks Users

J.P. Morgan plans to disable customers’ access to their bank-account information through software designed to help manage their personal finances unless the customers take steps to confirm their identity with the bank.

November 2015 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Declines And Now At 15 Month Low

Written by Doug Short and Steven Hansen

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to 90.4 in November from the September final reading of 99.1, an upward revision of September's initial 97.6. The market expected (from Bloomberg) this index to come in between 100.0 to 106.0 (consensus 102.5).

The surprising reason airline food tastes like cardboard

It’s not entirely the airline’s fault that their food is mediocre.

Market Extra: Downed Russian warplane highlights geopolitical risks

Global stocks sold off Tuesday as officials confirmed that Turkish forces had indeed shot down a Russian jet that Turkish officials said had intruded in the country’s airspace, but the overall market reaction remains muted.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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