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19Nov2015 Market Update: US Markets Stall After Three-Day Rally, Oil Stable (sort Of), Low Volume Indicates Investors Concerned

Written by Gary

The averages slipped down from the morning highs to a mixed status as healthcare stocks snapped a three-day rally after UnitedHealth cut its profit forecast, offsetting gains in technology and consumer stocks. The small caps are in the green, flat and trending down. Oil has remained relatively steady and trading in the low 44 range.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The Bovespa is up 0.74% while the IPC gains 0.31%. The S&P 500 is off 0.16%.

Global stock markets push ahead as investors find relief in more certain signs of US rate hike

LONDON (AP) — Stock markets around the world posted strong gains Thursday as investors cheered a clearer policy stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve even though it looks like a rate hike next month looks to be well on the cards.

KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 1.3 percent to 6,360 while France's CAC-40 rose 0.8 percent to 4,944. Germany's DAX broke above 11,000 to trade 1.5 percent higher at 11,123. Wall Street was also poised for solid gains at the bell with both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.4 percent.

FED FOCUS: The news that the Fed looks to be clearing the decks for its first interest rate hike in more than nine years hasn't caused too much consternation in the markets. Quite the opposite in fact.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 61%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 52%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 46.7% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -11.25 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 33.81% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 52.23% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 66.00% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.39 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 80.47 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,429

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Dorsey's Square jumps in market debut, offering hope to startups

(Reuters) - Shares of Square Inc, the mobile payments company co-founded and still run by Twitter Inc Chief Executive Jack Dorsey, rose as much as 64 percent in their market debut, offering hope to tech startups hoping to go public.

Best Buy sales down; outlook for holiday season weak

(Reuters) - Best Buy Co Inc forecast a revenue decline for the crucial holiday quarter and reported lower-than-expected quarterly sales due to weak demand for mobile phones, tablets, repair services and warranties.

VW to cut capex as emissions scandal weakens unions

BERLIN (Reuters) - Volkswagen is set to announce its first cut in capital spending since the 2009 financial crisis, a sign of how the German carmaker's emissions-cheating scandal is weakening the position of its labor unions.

Wall St. flat as healthcare losses offset tech gains

(Reuters) - U.S. indexes wobbled on Thursday as healthcare stocks snapped a three-day rally after UnitedHealth cut its profit forecast, offsetting gains in technology and consumer stocks.

Investors 'swipe right' in Tinder-owner Match's market debut

(Reuters) - Shares of media mogul Barry Diller's Match Group Inc , the owner of popular dating site and mobile app Tinder, jumped as much 16 percent in their market debut on Thursday, valuing the company at $3.34 billion.

Exclusive: Pfizer negotiating 2-3 percent Allergan break-up fee - sources

(Reuters) - Pfizer Inc is negotiating a break-up fee in the range of 2 to 3 percent of the value of its roughly $150 billion potential acquisition of Allergan Plc , proportionally in line with other deals, people familiar with the matter said.

Pfizer, Allergan in final stage of merger talks: CNBC

(Reuters) - Pfizer Inc and Allergan Plc are in final stages of talks over an all-stock deal, CNBC tweeted, citing sources.

Oil slides again as focus returns to heavy glut

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday, with U.S. crude dipping below $40 per barrel, retreating from early gains amid a persistent global glut of crude and refined fuel.

Starboard asks Yahoo to sell core business instead of Alibaba stake

(Reuters) - Activist investor Starboard Value LP asked Yahoo Inc to drop plans to sell its stake in Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd due to tax concerns, and instead urged the company to sell its core search and display advertising businesses.

Dark Days: Vulnerable Europe Faces Crisis of Confidence

Dark Days: Vulnerable Europe Faces Crisis of Confidence

Europe is in a very dark place. Under the cloud of on-going terrorist threats there is widespread fear of what the future holds - economically, socially and politically.

Jeremy Warner writing for the Telegraph yesterday describes the â€'abyss’ into which we are sliding and how this is precisely the reaction that the terrorists had hoped to elicit, despite the fact that - “even in Israel, citizens are far more likely to be the victim of a car accident than a terrorist outrageâ€.

Despite the initial bravado and defiance of the population in the immediate wake of such attacks, there is inevitably always a knock-on effect. “Most people will indeed carry on as before, but it only takes a 10pc reduction in footfall to have quite marked economic effects.â€

“Yet it is to the wider geo-political impact of terrorism that we must look for the longer-term economic consequences. In providing a pretext for war in Afghanistan and Iraq, 9/11 ended up having a massive economic impact far beyond any immediate behavioural changes.â€

The fiscal costs alone of these wars were vast. On its own, Iraq is estimated to have cost the US $1.1 trillion, and that’s ignoring myriad after conflict costs, which compound over time.

"This Isn't Going To End Well" - Junk Bonds Under Pressure

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via,

While the Stock Market is Partying ...

There are seemingly always "good reasons" why troubles in a sector of the credit markets are supposed to be ignored - or so people are telling us, every single time. Readers may recall how the developing problems in the sub-prime sector of the mortgage credit market were greeted by officials and countless market observers in the beginning in 2007.

oil rig

At first it was assumed that the most highly rated tranches of complex structured products would be immune, as the riskier equity tranches would serve as a sufficient buffer for credit losses. When that turned out to be wishful thinking, it was argued that the problem would remain "well contained" anyway. After all, sub-prime only represented a small part of the overall mortgage credit market. It could not possibly affect the entire market. This is precisely the attitude in evidence with respect to corporate debt at the moment.

1-HYG weekly

A weekly chart of high yield ETF HYG (unadjusted price only chart) - click to enlarge.

The argument as far as we're aware goes something like this: there are only problems with high yield debt in the energy and commodity sectors. This cannot po ...

The Fate Of Goldman's Global Growth Forecast Is In The Hands Of Just Three Countries

In a note released earlier today, following its first Top 6 trades for the coming year, Goldman released what it believes will be the Top 10 Market Themes for 2016, at the very top of which the bold claim that "Global growth is More stable than it looks."

Whether Goldman is right remains to be seen: ironically it was Goldman itself which just yesterday poked fun at constant errors by the sellside in "predicting"an imminent recovery and always being wrong, and whose only job, it is now clear, is to sell optimism. This is what Goldman said in a Wednesday note:

On the surface, our “more of the same†forecast sounds a bit dispiriting because the recovery in global GDP growth after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has been so underwhelming. Year after year, forecasters have had to revise down their initially lofty GDP growth estimates to rates that look pedestrian by pre-GFC standards. This pattern is illustrated in Exhibit 3, which shows how the consensus GDP forecast for the G7 economies has evolved in the Bloomberg survey of economic forecasters for each year since 2011. Every line ends lower than where it started. Although the pattern is no longer as pronounced as in the 2011-2013 period, when the Euro area re-entered recession, reality is still coming in below expectations.

Ok, fine, "it will be different this time." We'll see just wrong Goldman's 2016 global GDP forecast of 3.6% is in one year.

For the time being, here is a the country- ...

This Wasn't Supposed To Happen

Bonds ain't buying The Buy-The-F##king-Paris-Attack-Dip rally in stocks...

and a bonus "question your stock buying panic" chart...

Charts: Bloomberg

Square, Match Surge in Trading Debuts

Shares of mobile-payments startup Square and online-dating service owner Match Group surged in their first day of trading, a welcome relief for the beaten-down market for initial public offerings.

Rate-Rise Bets Heat Up After Fed Minutes

A key measure of bets that U.S. short-term interest rates will rise reached their highest level in more than a year, as investors prepared for the first Federal Reserve rate increase since 2006.

U.S. Stocks Little Changed After Big Rally

U.S. stock indexes were little changed Thursday, following the biggest rally in almost a month after notes from the U.S. Federal Reserve showed it could be on track to raise interest rates in December.

October 2015 Leading Economic Index Improved

Written by Steven Hansen

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.improved this month - and the authors believe "despite lackluster third quarter growth, the economic outlook now appears to be improving".

London Markets: FTSE 100 ends higher for 4th straight win

U.K. stocks closed higher Thursday, taking part in a global rally in equities that began Wednesday when the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled the world’s largest economy is ready to handle an interest-rate hike.

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