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17Nov2015 Market Update: Markets Falling Off Morning Highs Below Support, DOW Up 30 For Now, Further Losses Seen If Oil Falls Below Support

Written by Gary

SP500 (and other indexes) reached a pivot point and sharply retraced to fall below this mornings resistance level (now a support) at 2055. Crude oil is still falling and is testing the 40.60 support, while gold has fallen sharply to levels not seen since 2009.

Volatility is moderate, but investors need to watch for sharp reversals and oil falling below 40.60.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 1.33% while Mexico's IPC is up 1.13% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.10%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 57%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 51%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 46.3% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -34.38 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 30.43% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 51.35% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 64.80% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.68 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.16 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,332

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Exclusive: Lyft executive says on track to hit $1 billion in gross annual revenue

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Ride-hailing app Lyft, Uber Technologies Inc's [UBER.UL] biggest competition in the United States, expects to reach $1 billion in gross annual revenue, the company's co-founder told Reuters.

Wal-Mart earnings beat expectations; shares up

(Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc reported slightly stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings on Tuesday as it booked its fifth straight gain in U.S. same-store sales, sending its shares up more than 4 percent.

Ford seeks to expand SUV portfolio, sees market at 40 percent by 2020

(Reuters) - Ford Motor Co is looking at ways to expand its sport utility vehicle portfolio as SUVs grow to 40 percent of the U.S. light vehicle market by 2020 from about a third today, global sales chief Stephen Odell told Reuters.

U.S. inflation turning corner; factory output rises

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased in October after two straight months of declines as the cost of healthcare and other services rose, evidence of firming inflation that further supports views that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.

Yellen urges rejection of rule-based monetary policy proposal

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday condemned a proposal in the U.S. Congress that would require the central bank to tie interest rate policy to a mathematical rule, arguing this would "severely damage the U.S. economy."

Wall St. edges higher after retail earnings

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as better-than-expected earnings from Wal-Mart and Home Depot allayed some concerns about consumer spending ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Exclusive: U.S. executives pledge stock for loans, raise margin call concern

BOSTON (Reuters) - U.S. corporate executives and directors have pledged at least $15 billion of their own company stock holdings to secure personal loans, in spite of recent examples of these arrangements creating bigger losses for other investors during selloffs.

TJX same-store sales top estimates as shoppers hunt for deals

(Reuters) - TJX Cos Inc , the owner of off-price chains TJ Maxx and Marshalls, reported a bigger-than-expected rise in quarterly comparable store sales as more bargain-hungry shoppers visited its stores for apparel, accessories and home goods.

Google to contest Russia's antitrust ruling on Android

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Google will contest in court a ruling by Russia's antitrust agency that it broke competition law by abusing its dominant position with its Android mobile platform, the U.S. technology company said on Tuesday.

SunEdison Is Collapsing (Again)

The bloodbath in hedge fund hotel SunEdison continues but judging by the massive volumes this is those same funds liquidating en masse (following Dan Loeb's exit)...

Down 57% in the last week alone...

SUNE is back at levels where it cliff-dived in 2012...

Future Of Brazil's Oil Industry In Serious Doubt

Submitted by Nick Cunningham via,

Oil market analysts keep a close watch on the weekly and monthly production figures from the U.S. EIA, watching for a sign that a contraction in output will help to balance global supply and demand.

There are a few reasons why so much attention is paid to the U.S., rather than other places around the world. First, the U.S. has consistent and reliable data, unlike a lot of other places, which makes analysis easier. Second, the U.S. is the principle culprit behind the collapse in oil prices, as its rapid run up in production pushed supplies well beyond demand. Third, U.S. shale, the source of the recent uptick in supply, rises and falls much more quickly than conventional oil fields, especially large-scale projects such as deep offshore.

Still, it is useful to pay attention to supply changes from outside the U.S. For example, in its November report, OPEC raises a few red flags on Brazil, where a deteriorating economy, a simmering corruption scandal, and a major pullback in the state-owned oil firm Petrobras, could all conspire to cut into Brazil's oil output.

Brazil's inflation has jumped to its highest level since 2003, running over 10 percent according to the latest figures. The central bank hiked interest rates to 14.25 percent, the highest in nine years to combat inflation, but so far it has been unsuccessful. Meanwhile, GDP is shrinking, with an expected contraction of 2.2 percent in 2015. And the unemployment rate has hit 7.6 percent, the highest since 2010.

Brazil is expected to increase oil production by 180,000 barrels per day in 2015, hitting 3.04 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Gold Tumbles For 14th Of Last 15 Days To Lowest Since Feb 2010

The precious metal pummeling continues...

The 14th down day in the last 15...

To its lowest since Feb 2010...

Which is odd given the near-record physical demand...

and The US Mint selling out...

Charts: bloomberg

Investor Shift: Hate the Oil, Love the Big Oil Company

Investors remain downbeat on oil, but some are starting to buy the companies that pump it out of the ground.

U.S. Stocks Rise

U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, lifted by encouraging results from Wal-Mart Stores and Home Depot.

Gold to Drift Lower in 2016

The gold price will hover at around $1,000 a troy ounce through next year, investment banks say, with interest rate rises and overall bearish sentiment keeping up pressure on the beleaguered metal.

October 2015 Industrial Production Data Mixed

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) declined (the manufacturing portion of this index was up month-over-month). Consider this a soft data point that was slightly worse than expected. Our analysis is slightly better than the headline view, with mining / utilities responsible for the weak data..

The Tell: Here's the mistake economists made about falling oil prices

Falling fuel prices are a windfall for consumers, but they've been putting the money away rather than spending it.

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