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13Nov2015 Market Close: Dow Closes Down Over 200 Points, Oil Closes Down Into The 40's, Possible To See Green On Monday

Written by Gary

Friday the 13th didn't scare the markets very much, at least we didn't see a waterfall decline which I was half expecting. Falling over one percentage point is bad enough, but not a bad as a three percentage 'crash'. I believe the handwriting is on the wall for further market losses and it would behoove investors to sit on their hands and wait for the dust to settle. I would neither go short or long at this point. Short-term session indicators improve slightly, but still remain very bearish.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. stocks fall, with retail, technology leading rout

(Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Friday, weighed down by consumer retail and technology stocks after disappointing forecasts from Cisco and department store chains suggested weakening demand heading into the key holiday shopping season.

Weak retail sales suggest moderate fourth-quarter economic growth

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in October amid a surprise decline in automobile purchases, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending that could temper expectations of a strong pickup in fourth-quarter economic growth.

Exclusive: Commodity trader Cargill restructures, cuts jobs - sources

LONDON (Reuters) - Cargill Inc [CARG.UL], one of the world's largest privately held corporations and a top commodities trader, has launched a restructuring that includes layoffs, one company source and four industry sources said on Friday.

Higher spend on essentials, online bargains hit U.S. dept stores

(Reuters) - Slumping same-store sales at upscale U.S. department store operator Nordstrom Inc could point to more than a glut in retailers' inventories, not just a longer-than-usual spell of warm weather and fewer spendthrift tourists.

Oil dives 3 percent, heads for biggest weekly drop in eight months

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil fell as much as 3 percent on Friday, extending the week's loss to the largest in eight months, with prices pressured by swelling storage of crude on land and sea.

J.C. Penney a case of 'good results, bad timing' as shares plunge

(Reuters) - J.C. Penney Co Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly net sales and a smaller-than-expected loss, helped by demand for home products and footwear and a strong performance by the growing number of Sephora beauty shops in its stores.

Will 92% Of Economists Be Wrong Again?

Three months ago, when looking at the predictive track record of US economists, we said that "if PhD economists were serious about getting things right, they would have a tough job. That goes double for PhD economists charged with making policy decisions based on their conclusions."

We furher explained that’s because economics (like sociology and political science and astrology) isn’t a real science. It’s a pseudo-science. And as is the case with other pseudo-sciences, it’s flat out impossible to discover laws and immutable truths, no matter what anyone told you in your undergrad economics course.

Back then we were specifically looking at economist's predictions about the Fed's first rate hike, which based on a WSJ survey of "respected" economists, nearly 95% said the Fed would hike by September.

It did not... once again showing just how truly clueless about a binary event a short 9 months in the future, economists truly are.

* * *

Where are we now? Here is the latest WSJ poll:

About 92% of the business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal in recent days said they expected the Fed to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate at its Dec. 15-16 policy meeting. Some 5% said the Fed would stay on hold until March and 3% predicted the Fed would keep rates at near-zero even longer.

...

What's Wrong With This Picture?

Demand, Supply, or Outright Manipulation?

Charts: Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Fall; Headed for Big Weekly Decline

U.S. stocks fell Friday, setting up major indexes for their first weekly declines in nearly two months.

Oil Prices Fall to Fresh Lows

U.S. oil prices dropped near $40 a barrel for the first time in three months as traders worried about growing crude-oil inventories and slowing demand growth.

U.K. Serious Fraud Office Charges 10 Over Euribor

U.K. authorities launched criminal proceedings against 10 former and current Deutsche Bank and Barclays employees accused of manipulating the euro interbank offered rate.

Preliminary November 2015 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Rises to Highest Level Since July.

by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com

[note that this post was authored by Steven Hansen]. The preliminary University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 93.1, an increase from the 90.0 final October reading. Bloomberg had forecast 92.0.

U.S. is home to 40% of global shadow-banking assets

When it comes to shadow banking, the U.S. is the undisputed boss. Of the estimated $36 trillion in global shadow banking assets in 2014, the U.S. accounted for 40% â€" $14.2 trillion.

As age rises, American women face increasing bars to employment

Middle-age women confront a cold shoulder in the employment market, limiting their opportunities for job interviews, and penalizing them for holding lesser jobs while they attempt to get their careers back on track, according to compelling new data from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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