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13Nov2015 Market Update: Markets Trending Down, Oil Consolidating For Another Fall To $38, Investors Scrambling For Alternate Safe Havens, Next Support For SP500 Is 2000

Written by Gary

DOW is down triple digits, but it was grimmer earlier this morning. There may be more to come on this Friday the 13th as it looks like oil is going to tumble further and take the market with it. The session short-term indicators are very bearish, but some supports that 'appear' to have been broken just may be a fake-out. Investors are warned to take a cautions look at jumping into the fray.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are lower today with shares in Mexico off the most. The IPC is down 0.93% while Brazil's Bovespa is off 0.81% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is lower by 0.71%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 65%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 48%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 48.4%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-59.80

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 29.12%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 52.64%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 66.80
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.82
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.29
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,199

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

J.C. Penney a case of 'good results, bad timing' as shares plunge

(Reuters) - J.C. Penney Co Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly net sales and a smaller-than-expected loss, helped by demand for home products and footwear and a strong performance by the growing number of Sephora beauty shops in its stores.

AstraZeneca's potential $3 billion cancer pill wins early approval

LONDON (Reuters) - A new lung cancer pill from AstraZeneca , designed for patients whose disease has worsened after treatment with other therapies, won early U.S. approval on Friday, in a boost for the British drugmaker.

Standard Chartered to pay $6.3 million in Swiss program deal

(Reuters) - Standard Chartered Bank's Swiss unit [STANB.UL] will pay a $6.3 million penalty as part of a deal it reached with the U.S. Justice Department to avoid possible prosecution for helping Americans evade taxes, the department said on Friday.

Oil dives 2 percent, heads for biggest weekly drop in 8 months

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil fell more than 2 percent on Friday, extending the week's loss to the largest in eight months, pressured by swelling storage of crude on both land and sea.

Wall St. dragged down by retail, technology stocks

(Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Friday, weighed down by consumer retail and technology stocks after disappointing forecasts from Cisco and department store chains for the key holiday shopping season.

Northrop upbeat on E-2D early-warning sales despite UAE loss

DUBAI (Reuters) - Northrop Grumman Corp sees possible sales of dozens of its E-2D Advanced Hawkeye airborne early warning aircraft to countries in the Gulf, Asia and North Africa in coming years, despite the loss of an order from the UAE to Sweden's SAAB AB this week, senior company officials said.

Crude Slips As US Oil Rig Count Rises For First Time In 3 Months

The US Oil Rig Count rose 2 to 574 last week. This is the first rise in rig count since mid August, continuing to track the lagged crude price. On top of rising production, surging inventories, and massive excess supply at sea, Crude is fading modestly on the news, hovering around $40.50.

First rig count rise in 11 weeks...

Pressuring crude lower once again...

Charts: Bloomberg

Is The Fed About To Become "Weather Dependent?" Goldman Says El Nino To Boost Winter Growth

Make no mistake, there’s been no shortage of discussions about the weather this year in economic circles which is ironic because as we’re fond of reminding you, the only people worse at their jobs than weathermen, are economists.

Weather was a frequent go-to scapegoat for poor data earlier in the year as forecasters (the economic kind) seem to be perpetually amazed by snow in the winter (of course that’s nothing a double adjustment to the data can’t fix). Things got even weirder in September when Citi suggested that the Fed shouldn’t rely on weak jobs data in August and September when it comes to setting policy at its September meetings because the bank’s economists had discovered some “residual seasonality†(the term made popular by the San Francisco Fed with a Steve Liesman assist) in the data. What the Fed should do, Citi said, is assume the data is actually better than it looks and count on an upward revision. Ultimately, Citi blamed the “faulty†data on “summer.â€

Just a month after that, the same Citi and BofAML as well blamed unseasonably warm October weather for poor October retail sales. As BofA put it, “we believe abnormal weather patterns may have biased retail ex-auto sales lower in October. There has been a late start to the winter this year: the average temperature in October was 57.4 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the highest since 1963 and above the historical average of 54.3 degrees. Intuitively, this would depress sales of cold weather apparel, such as coats, hats, boots, etc.†To which we said this: No, BofA, there is nothing “intuitive†about that statement. No one would notice a three degree difference when they walk outside and even if they did, it wouldn’t keep them from buying a "hat".

Well going into the winter, there’s rampant speculation about the push and pull between El Nino and those factors that could serve to create another harsh winter for the US northeast. Here’s

Russia Sees Gold Reserves As 'Additional Financial Cushion' In Face Of "External Uncertainties"

Russia Sees Gold Reserves As “Additional Financial Cushion†In Face Of “External Uncertainties"

- Gold and fx reserves are “additional financial cushion†for state in face of “external uncertainties"
- Russia bought another 77 tonnes of gold in Q3
- Ruble volatility does not create risks for financial stability in Russia
- Russia intends building fx and gold reserves to $500 billion in coming years
- Gold is a “100% guarantee from legal and political risksâ€

Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina spoke about Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves today saying Russia intended building them up to $500 billion in the coming years. More ...

Oil Prices Fall to Fresh Lows

Oil prices dropped to fresh multimonth lows Friday on concerns that the global glut of crude oil is set to persist next year amid weak demand.

U.S. Stocks Fall, Headed for Big Weekly Decline

U.S. stocks fell Friday, setting up major indexes for their first weekly declines in nearly two months.

Mylan-Perrigo Deal: What Is the Price of Failure?

Mylan’s failed hostile takeover deal for Perrigo leaves both pharmaceutical companies nursing wounds.

06 November 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improved But Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - improved but remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its 13th week in negative territory.

Europe Markets: European stocks slump to weekly decline of nearly 3%

Worries about global growth and the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike drag on Europe’s markets.

London Markets: FTSE 100 falls, logs worst weekly performance in nearly 3 months

U.K. stocks suffer their sharpest weekly loss since August.

The Fed: Fed's Fischer leaves out the scary parts about the strong dollar, economist says

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer’s optimistic speech left out the less-benign aspects of how a strong dollar might hobble the economy.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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