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13Nov2015 Pre-Market Commentary: U.S. Futures Down, U.S. Financial Morning Reports Disappointing, WTI Oil Falling Again, Black Friday For Real?

Written by Gary

U.S. stock future indexes are down fractionally and slipping. Not-so-good US advanced retail sales came in at 0.1%. The Labor Department reports prices at the wholesale level dropped 0.4% during the month of October, an unexpected decline compared to the 0.2% tick higher Wall Street expected. WTI oil is also falling again at this hour and the US dollar is rising. Markets are expected to open on this Friday the 13th, sharply lower.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

J.C. Penney sales beat, helped by home goods and Sephora

(Reuters) - J.C. Penney Co Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly net sales and a smaller-than-expected loss, helped by demand for home products and footwear and a strong performance by the growing number of Sephora beauty shops in its stores.

Stock futures drop ahead of retail sales, consumer sentiment data

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower on Friday, a day after a sharp selloff that saw S&P 500 and the Dow close below a key technical level, and ahead of retail sales and consumer sentiment data, amid growing concerns of a slowdown in demand.

Higher spend on essentials, online bargains hit U.S. department stores

(Reuters) - Slumping same-store sales at upscale U.S. department store operator Nordstrom Inc could point to more than a glut in retailers' inventories, not just a longer-than-usual spell of warm weather and fewer spendthrift tourists.

European shares hammered after commodity rout

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares were set for their biggest weekly fall since September on Friday after commodity prices tumbled to multi-year lows on worries over slower global growth and a glut in supply.

Syngenta rejects $42 billion ChemChina offer: Bloomberg

(Reuters) - The world's largest agrichemicals company, Syngenta AG , has rejected a $42 billion takeover offer by state-owned China National Chemical Corp, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, lifting Syngenta's shares.

Investors flee Toshiba as hopes fade for quick scandal closure

TOKYO (Reuters) - Investors dumped shares in Japan's Toshiba Corp on Friday, as closure on the company's $1.3 billion accounting scandal appeared further out of reach after new revelations of losses at its U.S. nuclear unit Westinghouse.

Banks expected to adopt new technologies rather than be overrun

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New technology firms are battering all kinds of companies, but banks will remain as financial intermediaries, due to the regulations and duties governments have put on them, says a proponent of the technology behind the bitcoin cryptocurrency.

"Oil Bears May Not Hibernate" As Inventories Swell To Record 3 Billion Barrels

In true stop-running algo common sense, WTI crude jumped overnight, back above $42 briefly. However, a double whammy of warnings from IEA (of a "massive cushion" of 3 billion barrels worldwide) and the highest volume of supertankers for this time of year since 2013 has sent crude sliding back below $42.

As Bloomberg reports,

Oil stockpiles have swollen to a record of almost 3 billion barrels because of strong production in OPEC and elsewhere, potentially deepening the rout in prices, according to the International Energy Agency.

This "massive cushion has inflated" on record supplies from Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia, even as world fuel demand grows at the fastest pace in five years, the agency said. Still, the IEA predicts that supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decline next year by the most since 1992 as low crude prices take their toll on the U.S. shale oil industry.

"Brimming crude oil stocks" offer "an unprecedented buffer against geopolitical shocks or unexpected supply disruptions," the Paris-based agency said in its monthly market report. With supplies of winter fuels also plentiful, "oil-market bears may choose not to hibernate."

Here Are Europe's Best And Worst Performing Economies In The Third Quarter

The launch of QE in early 2015 was supposed to push Europe's economic growth on a sustainable growth trajectory. Unfortunately, according to the latest Eurostat data released hours ago this did not happen, and instead Q3 GDP in the Euro Area missed expectations of a 0.4% increase, rising 0.3% higher than in the three months to June, and 1.6% higher than in the third quarter of 2014. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate was down from 0.4% in the second quarter, and translates into an annualized growth rate of 1.2%, the weakest since the third quarter of last year.

Well, that's what more QE is for, as well as negative rates: because if something can fix Europe it is doing more of whatever didn't work in the first place, at least according to the ECB.

According to the WSJ, "the slowdown means it will take longer to reduce the eurozone’s very high unemployment rates, and use up other forms of spare capacity in the economy. That will in turn give businesses little reason to raise their prices." Which in turn means more deflation, which means even more QE, which means even more deflation, and even higher asset prices, rinse and repeat.

What is more curious is where the weakness came from: surprisingly, it was broad based and pronounced led by Germany, the currency area’s exporting powerhouse, while Italian economic growth also eased. There were fresh contractions in Greece, Finland and Estonia, while Portugal’s economy stagnated.

Here is the chart showing the best and worst European economies in the third ...

Frontrunning: November 13



European shares hammered after commodity rout (Reuters)

Euro-Area Growth Misses Estimates as ECB Ponders More Stimulus (BBG)

Slower-than-expected euro zone growth likely to seal more ECB stimulus (Reuters)

China Doubles Margin Requirement for Stocks to Curb Leverage (BBG)

IEA Says Record 3 Billion-Barrel Oil Stocks May Weaken Prices (BBG)

GM to Import Chinese-Made Buick SUV (WSJ)

China's Troubled Credit Swells to Sweden-Sized $628 Billion (BBG)

LoanDepot Postpones IPO (WSJ)

Volkswagen, Offering Amnesty, Asks Workers to Come Forward on Emissions Cheating (NYT)

China apparent steel consumption falls 5.7 percent from January-October (Reuters)

Sweden checks trains for migrants in first border controls in 20 years (Reuters)

Secretive, Sprawling Network of â€'Scouts’ ...

The Hottest Energy Trade: A Ride Aboard the Colonial Pipeline

Energy companies and trading firms are vying for space on the nation’s biggest refined-fuel pipeline, as infrastructure fails to keep pace with the oil boom.

Global Stocks Extend Slide

Global stocks remained under pressure at the end of a bruising week for markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 1% in recent trade.

From 'Bubble' to 'Crash,' the Incredible Origins of 7 Finance Terms

Wall Street Journal personal-finance columnist Jason Zweig’s new book, “The Devil’s Financial Dictionary,†is a satirical glossary of investing terms.

Fed's Balance Sheet 11 November 2015 Essentially Unchanged

Total Fed Balance Sheet:

Fed's Balance Sheet week ending balance sheet was $4,453 trillion..

Need to Know: What's spooked the world's biggest hedge fund on this Friday the 13th

Even if you really want to buy stocks, you just might hold off today. So let’s talk about selling, which Ray Dalio's firm has revealed it's doing in a big way. That comes as sellers gave taken over this week.

Commodities Corner: Four reasons one investor thinks gold could jump this year

U.S. Global Investors’ Frank Holmes talks about what’s influencing gold â€" and he hardly mentions the Federal Reserve.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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Current Commodity Prices


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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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