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10Nov2015 Market Update: Session Short-Term Indicators Somewhat Bullish, But Slipping Under Investors Concerns Of Global Economies Weakening

Written by Gary

US averages briefly saw green after the opening but then declined sharply on moderate volume. The averages recovered once again to climb into the green but have since slipped back. Investors are unsure of the oil glut, the Fed December rate hike and a worsening global situation. WTI oil rebounded fractionally off the 42 support, but appears to be weakening again.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

October Import Prices fell 0.5%, a much larger decline than the estimate for a decline of 0.1%. October Export Prices fell 0.2%, matching the estimate.

Crude trading in the 43s, but shows no signs of life yet

Crude has been taking the escalator down since peaking out over $50. Very orderly - sell-off, consolidate, repeat. While it becomes increasingly more dangerous to short crude as it trades in the 43s, it looks like it has yet another short-term leg lower, at the least, before it can try and rally. (Click on chart for larger view.)

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 70%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 66%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 50.6%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -35.42
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 33.73%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 55.37%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 70.80%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 23.20
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 80.56
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,405

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Dell-EMC deal threatened by possible $9 billion tax bill: Re/code

(Reuters) - Dell Inc's $67 billion offer to buy data storage company EMC Corp could be derailed by a tax bill of up to $9 billion, technology news website Re/code reported, citing sources familiar with the matter on Tuesday.

U.S. sues to block United Airlines from acquiring Newark slots

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department said on Tuesday it has sued to stop United Continental Holdings Inc from acquiring 24 takeoff and landing slots at Newark Liberty International Airport from Delta Air Lines Inc , which could possibly thwart United's expansion plans at its New Jersey hub.

Wall St. slips on rate hike prospects; Apple weighs

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were lower on Tuesday, dragged down by Apple, as investors braced for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month and worried about weakening demand in China.

U.S. import prices fall further; wholesale inventories rise

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. import prices fell more than expected in October as the cost of petroleum and a range of goods declined, a sign that a strong dollar and soft global demand continued to exert downward pressure on imported inflation.

Portuguese Government Falls As Socialists, Communists Topple PM

Well it wasn't hard to see this coming.

As detailed here on Tuesday, Antonio Costa and the Socialists have fulfilled their promise of ousting Portuguese PM Pedro Passos Coelho's government just days after President Anibal Cavaco Silva reappointed the premier on the heels of largely inconclusive elections.


PORTUGUESE PARLIAMENT REJECTS PM COELHO'S GOVERNMENT PROGRAM

PORTUGAL GOVERNMENT FALLS AFTER LAWMAKERS BLOCK COELHO PLAN

For those who missed it, the Socialists moved to form a government with the Left Bloc and the Communists and when Silva decided to give them the political equivalent of a swift slap in the face by reappointing Coelho, the stage was set for a veritable mutiny.

Today's events validate Communist leader Jerónimo de Sousa's contention that Silva's decision would amount to a "manifest waste of time."

Here's AP:

Anti-austerity lawmakers have forced Portugal's new center-right government to resign by rejecting its policy proposals.

The showdown comes less than two weeks after the center-right government was sworn in.

The moderate Socialist Party forged an unprecedented alliance with the Communist Party and the radical Left Bloc to get a majority in the 230-seat Parliament and vote down the proposals Tuesday.

After four years in power the government lost its parliamentary majority in ...

Unicorns Dropping Like Flies: First Dropbox; Then Square; Now Fidelity Cuts Snapchat Valuation By 25%

First it was Dropbox.

Two weeks ago we reported that one of the numerous "unicorns" prancing around Silicon Valley was about to have a very rude wake up call when Dropbox was warned by its investment bankers that it would be unable to go public at a valuation anywhere near close to what its last private round (which had most recently risen to $10 billion from $4 billion a year ago) valued it at.

Than it was Jack Dorsey's "other" company, Square.

Last last week: "today another company realized today just how big the second "private" tech bubble, one we profiled first in January of 2014, truly is. That company is Jack Dorsey's Square, which earlier today filed a prospectus in which it said that the "initial public offering price per share of Class A common stock will be between $11.00 and $13.00." Assuming a mid-point price of $12 and applying the 322.9 million shares outstanding after the offering, it means a valuation of $3.9 billion. The problem is that in its last private fundraising round, Square was valued at about $6 billion according to ReCode."

Today, it's the turn of Snapchat, the fourth most highly valued private tech start up.

According to FT, "Snapchat has been marked down by one of its most high-profile investors, raising further questions about the soaring valuations of private technology companies. Fidelity, the only fund manager to have invested in the four-year-old company best known for disappearing photos, wrote down the value of its stake by 25 per cent in the third quarter, according to data from investm ...

Older Americans Have Never Been More Miserable

Submitted by Catey Hill via MarketWatch.com,

It all goes downhill after 30 — at least when it comes to happiness.

"Adults over 30 are less happy than their predecessors," concludes a study published online Thursday in the journal Social Psychology and Personality Science, which examined happiness data from more than 50,000 adults, gleaned from the General Social Survey, carried out by NORC at the University of Chicago, a nonpartisan, independent research organization, which has collected information about American adults since 1972.

From 2010 to 2014, adults over 30 had an average happiness score of just 2.18, compared with 2.24 a decade ago. That's significant considering happiness scores were measured on a tiny scale from just 1 to 3, with 1 being "not too happy" and 3 being "very happy." (The data used five-year cohort periods so that single year fluctuations were smoothed out.)

What's perhaps even more interesting is that, for the first time ever, adults ages 18 to 29 were happier than adults over 30. "The happiness advantage of mature adults over adolescents has dwindled," write the authors of the study, entitled "More Happiness for Young People and Less for Mature Adults: Time Period Differences in Subjective Well-Being in the United States, 1972 - 2014."

While the authors don't know for sure why younger adults are happier than older ones for the first time in at least 40 ye ...

U.S. Stocks Steady, but Tech Slides

U.S. stocks steadied in early afternoon trade Tuesday, but weakness in technology company shares, including those of Apple Inc., kept a lid on gains.

Charges in J.P. Morgan Hacking Case

Federal prosecutors unsealed indictments against three men who allegedly engaged in a sprawling cybercriminal enterprise that hacked into J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and several U.S. financial institutions.

Valeant Warns of Pain From Cutting Ties With Philidor

Valeant’s chief executive said the company expects to feel some short-term pain from cutting ties with specialty pharmacy Philidor but said its business remains solid.

September 2015 Wholesale Sales Improve but Remains In Contraction

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines say wholesale sales improved year-over-year with inventory levels remaining at levels associated with recessions. The best way to look at this series may be the unadjusted data three month rolling averages which decelerated keeping the long term downtrend in play.

Marissa Mayer moves closer to Yahoo endgame

A report portrays the CEO as an ineffective manager, and the numbers back up a gloomy reorganization scenario.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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