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10Nov2015 Pre-Market Commentary: US Futures Down, Oil Slipping, US Dollar Rising, Calm Before The Storm?

Written by Gary

U.S. stock future indexes are generally flat to fractionally lower placing the SP500 to fall for the fifth session in a row. The US dollar finished a short consolidation period and is climbing to heights last seen in March this year. WTI oil tested the $45 resistance a short while ago and is now declining again to its support. Investors are increasing worried about the Fed rate increase and shrinking Global economies.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed. The DAX is higher by 0.08%, while the CAC 40 is leading the FTSE 100 lower. They are down 0.47% and 0.25% respectively.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Experian says receives class actions on T-Mobile breach

(Reuters) - Credit data company Experian Plc said it had received a number of class actions related to the theft of T-Mobile US Inc customer data at its server and was working with U.S. and other law enforcement agencies to investigate the matter.

Oil steady after IEA sees sharp decline in investment

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency noted unprecedented declines in investment, though the overall picture of an oversupplied market limited any gains.

Stock futures lower as rate hike looms, China fears linger

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were lower on Tuesday, a day after Wall Street suffered its steepest drop in six weeks as investors braced for an interest-rate hike and fretted about China's economic health.

D.R. Horton's profit surges as home sales jump

(Reuters) - D.R. Horton Inc , the largest U.S. homebuilder, reported a near 44 percent jump in profit for the fourth quarter as the company sold more homes and it said orders rose 19 percent.

Luxury brands suing Alibaba say mediation looks futile after Ma comments

SHANGHAI/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Luxury brands suing Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba Group Holding Ltd have asked a U.S. judge to be relieved of the obligation to mediate, which they say looks futile after Alibaba founder Jack Ma was quoted in a magazine as saying he would rather lose the case than settle.

Global shares dip, dollar back on track

LONDON (Reuters) - Asian stock markets fell and European shares struggled to find traction on Tuesday as investors digested the fallout of the third quarter earnings season and last week's strong signals from the U.S. jobs market.

Boeing expects first maritime spy plane sale in next few years

DUBAI (Reuters) - Boeing Co is in "very serious conversations" with five customers about its new Maritime Surveillance Aircraft, a long-range spy plane based on Bombardier's 605 business jet, an executive said on Tuesday.

China Sends Fighter Jets To Island, Demands No Mention Of "Contentious Issues" At Summit

When Washington sent the USS Lassen to Subi Reef last month, it represented the most meaningful escalation yet in what has become an incredibly tense standoff in The South China Sea.

America’s friends in the region - most notably, The Philippines - seem convinced that Beijing has designs on using its newly constructed islands in the Spratlys as forward operating bases for future military operations. China of course denies this, but has nevertheless built 10,000 foot airstrips capable of landing fighter jets and surveillance aircraft, cement factories, and ports atop the reefs, and when a US Poseidon spy plane went to have a look back in May, the PLA told it to “Go now!â€

There are conflicting accounts of just how “forceful†a message the US actually sent by sending a guided missile destroyer to Subi (some say the exercise wasn’t “convincing†enough), but it did serve to antagonize Beijing and indeed, Admiral Wu Shengli told US chief of naval operations Admiral John Richardson that this needs to stop now unless the US wants to go to war.

But by all accounts, the patrols aren’t going to cease because Washington needs to save face and reassure its allies in the South Pacific and so, the stage is set for an “accident.â€

Now, reports indicate that China has sent J-11BH/BHS fighter jets to Woody Island, south of Hainan in what one could be forgiven for believing is an attempt to discourage US military flyovers. Here’s The Diplomat:

The People’s Liberation A ...

EURUSD Crashes To 1.06 Handle - 7-Month Lows

It appears the stop sbelow yesterday's lows (following The ECB's jawboning of "big cuts" in rates) have been run, sparking a 40 pip waterfall to a 1.06 handle in EURUSD (and there are more ECB speakers to come). These are 7-month lows in EURUSD and are pressing The USD Index to break April's highs.

Charts: Bloomberg

Valeant Business Update Call Dial-In Details

The Valeant drama continues, and one day after Bill Ackman hosted another desperate call to convince LPs in his fund not to submit redemption requests following a $2+ billion loss on his VRX investment (and maybe buy a little here and there), here comes Valeant itself which in a few moments will provide a "business update for investors on a conference call to be held Tuesday, November 10, 2015 at 8:00 a.m. ET."

J. Michael Pearson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, together with Robert Rosiello, Chief Financial Officer, Dr. Ari Kellen, Company Group Chairman, Deb Jorn, Company Group Chairman and Tanya Carro, Corporate Controller, will conduct the call.

The conference call on November 10 will consist of an overview of current plans and priorities, including the transition plan from Philidor, and an update on the Company's operations. Immediately thereafter, there will be a question and answer segment for investors and analysts.

Valeant intends to host an Investor Day and update its annual and quarterly financial guidance prior to the end of 2015.

Those interested can dial into the Conference Call using the following details:

The Company will host a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET (5:00 a.m. PT), November 10, 2015 to provide a business update.

The dial-in number to participate on this call is (877) 876-8393 confirmation code 78262163. International callers should dial (973) 200-3961, confirmation code 78262163.

A replay will be available approximately two hours following the conclusion of the conference call through November 17, 2015 and can be accessed by dialing (855) 859-2056, or (404) 537-3406, confirmation code 78262163.

Goldman Sees 60% Chance Current "Expansion" Continues Another 4 Years, Becomes Longest Ever

Back in August, we were amused when Bank of America's chief economist, Ethan Harris, cut his 2015 GDP forecast from 3.3% to 2.3% in the span of one year (i.e., he was off by 30%) and yet in its latest long-term forecast predicted that the US economy would grow at a steady terminal pace of 2% (down from 2.2% previously) indefinitely. In other words, he forecast no recession over the next decade.

This is what he said: "Obviously, there is considerable uncertainty in forecasting many years out, so these should be viewed as rough baseline numbers. For example, if history is our guide, at some point in the next decade the US will experience a recession, but predicting a recession far in advance is almost impossible. We plan to update this table on a regular basis."

We laughed.

Then we laughed some more when that "other" big bank, Goldman Sachs tried to estimate just what the "impossibly to calculate" odds of a recession are. Its answer: "10-15% over the next year."

But don't despair: in keeping with the economist tradition of being overly optimistic, Goldman's economists also said the following: "Using a dataset on developed market business cycles, we calculate that the unconditional odds that a six-year-old expansion will avoid recession for another four yearsâ€"and mature into a 10-year-old expansionâ€"are about 60%."

It adds:

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)â ...

Bank of America Cut Off Finance Sites From Its Data

The temporary move highlights unease roiling banks amid threat from tech-savvy startups trying to lure away business.

OPEC's Strategy Could Backfire, IEA Warns

OPEC’s decision to abandon its strategy of controlling oil production to support prices could contribute to a sustained period of low crude prices and dent the group’s own revenues, the International Energy Agency said.

Hedge Funds Load Up on Sugar

Investors again see opportunity in sugar, with raw-sugar futures prices up 39% since Aug. 24.

October 2015 Small Business Optimism Index Unchanged

The National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) optimism indexwas unchanged in October, posting no change after a rise of only 0.2 points in September and a gain of only 0.5 in August. The market was expecting the index between 96.0 to 97.2 with consensus at 96.4 - versus the actual at 96.1

China Is Investing Record Amounts In This U.S. Industry And You Can Profit

by Peter Krauth, Money Morning

Money Morning Article of the Week

Chinese corporations and investors have been hunting overseas for bigger profits, and they're finding them in the United States.

Need to Know: What investors may get for the holidays, another selloff

Another down day for Wall Street has some analysts looking nervously for a repeat of last summer. Add that to some concerns over tech stocks, and you've got a potentially tottering house of cards.

Deep Dive: How to pick stocks that will outperform for the next 20 years

Find companies with worthy products or services and a high return on invested capital, says Phil van Doorn.

Market Snapshot: U.S. stock futures: S&P 500 on pace for fifth straight fall

U.S. stock futures point to a drop at the open, putting the S&P 500 on track to fall for the fifth session in a row.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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