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05Nov2015 Market Update: Bipolar Markets Confusing Investors, Crude Testing Support, Session Indicators Somewhat Bearish

Written by Gary

U.S. stocks opened higher then fell sharply where the DOW was off 87 points. From there, a slow meltup began that has morning investors confused and not to mention worried about this bipolar market. Heavy volatility in crude, gold and the US dollar. Afternoon markets look weak as WTI 'appears' to be trending down and the US dollar trending up.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The Bovespa is higher by 0.48%, while U.S.'s S&P 500 is off 0.11%. Shares in Mexico are unchanged with the IPC at 45,375.11.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 69%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 72%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 51.0%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +17.15
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 38.97%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 56.07%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 71.60%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.50
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 81.41
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,555

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Valeant tumbles 20 percent

NEW YORK/BOSTON (Reuters) - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc shares fell as much as 20 percent on Thursday, building on weeks of steep losses over concerns about its ties to specialty pharmacy Philidor Rx Services and its sharp drug price increases.

Exclusive: Bass Pro Shops explores bid for Cabela's - sources

(Reuters) - Privately held outdoors retailer Bass Pro Shops is exploring an offer for Cabela's Inc , the U.S. hunting and fishing store chain targeted by activist investor Elliott Management, people familiar with the matter said.

Wells Fargo to pay $81.6 million to bankrupt U.S. homeowners: DOJ

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co will pay $81.6 million to homeowners for denying them a chance to challenge mortgage payment increases imposed during their bankruptcy proceedings, the U.S. Justice Department said on Thursday.

Boeing to pay $57 million to settle 401(k) lawsuit

(Reuters) - Boeing Co has agreed to pay $57 million to settle a lawsuit in which employees accused the company of mismanaging their 401(k) retirement plan, the plaintiffs' legal firm said on Thursday.

U.S. review of banks could spell trouble for energy companies

(Reuters) - A recent U.S. regulatory review could force banks to scale back loans to energy companies whose revenues have been hit hard by falling oil prices, and could force more oil drillers into bankruptcy, analysts said.

Bank Of Ireland Bans "Small" Cash Withdrawals At Branches

As central planners the world over grapple with the effective “lower bound†that’s imposed by the existence of physical banknotes, there’s been no shortage of calls for a ban on cash.

Put simply, if you eliminate physical currency, you also eliminate the idea of a floor for depo rates.

After all, if people can’t withdraw paper money and stash it under the mattress, then interest rates can be as negative as the government wants them to be in order to “encourage†consumption. If, for instance, you’re being charged 10% for saving your money, then by God you will probably spend that money rather than see the bank collect a double-digit fee just for holding on to your paycheck.

In the absence of physical cash, there’s no way for depositors to avoid that rather unpalatable outcome unless the public starts buying hard assets like commodities with their debit cards. If you think that sounds far-fetched, just consider the fact that everyone from Citi’s Willem Buiter to economist Ken Rogoff to the German Council Of Economic Experts' Peter Bofinger have now floated the idea.

"With today's technical possibilities, coins and notes are in fact an anachronism," Bofinger told Spiegel back in May ...

Super Stock Surge Batters Bears To 8-Month Lows

AAII Bears have tumbled to their lowest level since February, crashing from cycle highs. All it took was a 5-week, short-squeezing, face-ripping 13% surge of the late-September lows.

Charts: Bloomberg

Rebounding Chinese Shares Enter a Bull Market

China entered a bull market Thursday, a surprising milestone after a volatile summer wiped out trillions of dollars in value from mainland equities and rattled global markets.

Where U.S. Companies Can Get the Best Deposit Rates: Overseas

Foreign banks are paying up for U.S. deposits that many domestic lenders are taking pains to avoid, reflecting a scramble by some overseas banks to find new sources of U.S. funding.

BOE: Mixed Messages for a Mixed-Up World

The Bank of England is facing another communications struggle. Markets seem increasingly skeptical.

3Q2015 (Preliminary): Headline Productivity Improves, Costs Down.

Written by Steven Hansen

A simple summary of the headlines for this release is that the growth of productivity exceeded the growth of costs (headline quarter-over-quarter analysis). The year-over-year analysis says the opposite. I personally do not understand why anyone would look at the data in this series as the trends are changed from release to release - and significantly between the preliminary and final release..

Market Extra: Jobs report could trigger spike in bond-market volatility

Investors are bracing for a spike in bond market volatility as October’s official jobs report, scheduled for Friday morning, is viewed by many as the main make-or-break element for a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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