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02Nov2015 Market Update: Markets Start The Afternoon Session Near Resistance On Anemic Volume, Short-Term Indicators Neutral, Afternoon Decline Possible

Written by Gary

Markets melted up from the flat opening to a respectable green level by the noon hour. The averages are trading at the resistance set up in March through August 2015 and are unlikely to penetrate that level without some serious investor participation in the coming sessions. Afternoon decline likely.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The S&P 500 is up 0.74% while the Bovespa gains 0.53%. The IPC is off 0.21%.

Session short-term indicators have sea-sawed at the neutral line for most of the morning and volume levels are dropping to anemic. The large caps have not gone higher than Friday's session highs and the small caps are trading at their respective resistance. The chances of a small correction to cover a gap made on October 23rd is glaringly apparent, so be prepared for a sharp reversal.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 70%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 71%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 47.2%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +5.03
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 35.90%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 53.56%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 69.60%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 21.80
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 81.04
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,523

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

HP Inc shares soar, HPE's volatile in first day of trade since split

(Reuters) - Shares of HP Inc , which houses the legacy printer and PC business, soared as much as 14.4 percent on Monday, while those of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co , considered the faster-growing of the two, fell as much as 5.8 percent.

Wall St. higher after better-than-expected factory data

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were higher on Monday as PMI data in key countries pointed to slowing but stabilizing manufacturing activity globally, and as healthcare stocks rose to their highest in a week.

Global factories struggle as stimulus fails to spur

LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) - Massive monetary stimulus from Chinese and European central banks has done little to spur factory growth, moving a debate over more easing up the agenda and raising doubts over whether U.S. interest rates will rise this year.

U.S. manufacturing slows; construction spending at 7-1/2-year high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in October for a fourth straight month, but a rise in new orders offered hope for a sector buffeted by a strong dollar and relentless spending cuts by energy companies.

DuPont to consolidate businesses within two units

(Reuters) - Chemicals and seed maker DuPont said it would consolidate some businesses within two units - one that makes nylon and polyster and another that makes materials such as Kevlar.

Confusion: US Equities Drift Lower (China Higher), Yuan Surges & Purges As China Manufacturing Misses (And Beats)

Confusion reigns... China's Manufacturing PMI is in contraction according to both the Official and Markit/Caixin measures (but the former was flat and missed while the latter rose and beat "confirming economic stability" according to the 'official' press). Following the largest strengthening fix for the Yuan in 10 years, both the onshore and offshore Yuan are weakening by the most since the August devaluation. Finally, having cliff-dived at the open, Chinese stocks have bounced back to unchanged on the Ciaxin PMI beat (but US equities drift lower still).

It's a rise and a beat & a miss and a drop for Chinese manufacturing...

The last two times the Caixin measure has diverged positively from the official data, it has converged lower in the next 3 months.

After the biggest strengthening fix in 10 years...

Onshore (and offshore Yuan) are weakening by the most since the August devaluation...

George Soros's Firm Pulls $500 Million Investment With Bill Gross

George Soros’s firm has pulled its roughly $500 million investment with Bill Gross, less than a year after the billionaire investor gave the former bond king his stamp of approval.

Corporate Bond Market Booms, a Bright Sign for U.S. Economy

Corporate-debt issuance in the U.S. is booming again, a sign of investors’ faith in the resilience of the economy.

Health-Care Shares Propel U.S. Stocks

Advances in health-care stocks propelled U.S. indexes on Monday.

September 2015 Construction Spending Growth Continues Strong.

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines say construction spending grew. The backward revisions make this series very wacky - but the backward revisions this month were upward making the data better than the headline view. In any event, construction spending is growing much faster than the economy in general.

An earnings recession is looming

S&P 500 companies are beating third-quarter earnings expectations at a healthy clip, but overall EPS is still expected to suffer a second-straight quarter of year-over-year declines for the first time since the Great Recession.

London Markets: FTSE 100 closes flat despite big gain in U.K. factory activity

The U.K. benchmark ends just fractionally higher as weak Chinese factory data drags on resource companies, even though the final U.K. manufacturing PMI for October shows the biggest point gain in the survey’s history.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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