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30Oct2015 Market Update: Markets In The Green Going Into Afternoon Session, Market Fundamentals Are Bearish, Expect Volatility

Written by Gary

US averages having been in the red all morning finally melted up enough to fractionally be in the green, but on very low volume. Oil prices are rising but is not expected to rise through resistance around mid 47's. Short-term session indicators are 'moderately' bullish, but longer term indicators show weakness in fundamentals that could melt the markets back in the red before this session is closed.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.14%, while the IPC is leading the Bovespa lower. They are down 0.72% and 0.04% respectively.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 69%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 71%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 46.9%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +3.43
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 36.55%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 53.24%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 69.00%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 21.53
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 81.37
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,520

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Indexes flat; on track for best month in four years

(Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes were flat on the last trading day of what could be the best month for stocks in four years as investors assessed consumer spending data and results from energy majors.

Valeant says Philidor shutting down as it cuts ties

(Reuters) - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International said on Friday that it is cutting ties with pharmacy Philidor Rx Services and that the pharmacy was shutting down.

Weak U.S. data clouds December rate hike possibility

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending in September recorded its smallest gain in eight months as personal income barely rose, suggesting some cooling in domestic demand after recent hefty increases.

Exxon third-quarter profit falls 47 percent but beats expectations

(Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp said on Friday third-quarter profit fell 47 percent on low crude prices but results were better than expected, helped by higher profit in the oil company's refining business.

Ackman: Valeant's main problem is PR, not fraud

BOSTON (Reuters) - Hedge fund mogul William Ackman told his investors on Friday that he was confident in his bet on Valeant Pharmaceuticals but faulted the company for a weak response to fraud allegations that have sunk its stock.

CVS 2016 profit forecast hurt by healthcare plans, Target deal

(Reuters) - CVS Health Corp gave a disappointing profit forecast for 2016, hurt by costs related to the acquisition of Target Corp's pharmacies and as its own pharmacy benefits management (PBM) business expands in low-margin Medicare and Medicaid plans.

Chevron slashes 2016 budget to weather low oil prices

(Reuters) - Chevron Corp , the second-largest U.S.-based oil producer, slashed its 2016 capital budget by 25 percent and said it would lay off roughly 10 percent of its workforce, one of the most-drastic reactions to date to the plunge in crude prices .

Crude oil set for weekly gain despite global surplus

LONDON (Reuters) - Brent crude held close to $49 a barrel on Friday, poised to post the first weekly gain in three weeks despite a supply glut that has tested storage capacity and hammered oil company results.

The Latest (and Dumbest) Central Bank Fraud

Submitted by Bill Bonner via Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum),

A Financial Reckoning

You go for a nice picnic on the slopes of Vesuvius... You spread out your tablecloth. You open your picnic hamper. You prepare for a relaxing afternoon in the warm October sun.

And then someone comes running down the mountain, warning that the volcano is going to blow up. You pack up your sausages and put a cork in the wine bottle... and rush to the car and drive away. Better to be safe than sorry. And then? Nothing happens.

Mt.Ontake

When these ominous columns of smoke become visible, it may be time to make tracks. Or not. This image shows Mt. Ontake in Japan, which tends to erupt occasionally ...

Most of the time, you can safely ignore the nervous nellies and prophetic Cassandras. (According to legend, Apollo gave Cassandra the gift of prophecy. When she refused him, he spat into her mouth so she would never be believed.) But sometimes the worrywarts are right...

For the last 16 years, we've been writing a daily e-letter - first the Daily Reckoning and now the Diary. We saw the collapse of the dot-com bubble coming and warned readers. Most didn't want to hear it; they were making good money in the stock market. It was a "new era." And they didn't want it to end.

But the Nasdaq collapsed in 2000... and didn't recov ...

Puerto Rico Bond Yields Hit Record Highs: Jack Lew Was Wrong Again

10-year Puerto Rico general obligation bond yields spiked to 12.3% - the highest on record - as the island's Government Development Bank's $354 million of principal and interest due on December 1st looms. Puerto Rico is now 450bps 'riskier' than Greece, which means Treasury Secretary Jack Lew was wrong again in not taking the German FinMin's offer in July to swap Puerto Rico for Greece...

It appears Schauble's July trade would have been a loser...

SCHAEUBLE: OFFERED LEW TO TAKE PUERTO RICO IF US TAKES GREECE

As we joked at the time...

Retweet for Puerto Greeko Favorite for Puerto Grico ... (please don't)

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 9, 2015

And now PR is 450bps wider than Greece..

For context, PR's 12.3% yield is ~10.3 percentage points more than benchmark municipal bonds with the same maturity and equivalent to a 21.8% taxable interest rate for the highest earners.

Puerto Rico's bondholders face mounting risks as the commonwealth veers toward default. As Bloomberg notes, a spokesman for Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla said Thursday that while the commonwealth intends ...

U.S. Stocks Set to Lock in Big Gains for October

U.S. stocks traded near the flat line Friday, heading toward the end of a month that has seen large gains for equity markets. The Dow industrials are on track for their largest monthly rise in four years.

Mutual Funds Flail at Valuing Startups

As mutual funds scramble to invest in hot, private companies before they go public, many funds are struggling just to put a value on their shares. Prices can vary widely, with a 17% gap for Uber.

Hedge Funds Hit by Rebound in Global Stocks

Big names among those caught out by bets against battered commodities firm Glencore, one of several stocks that gained 20% or more for the month as global stock markets have risen sharply.

23 October 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Marginally Declines and Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - marginallhy declined and remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its eleventh week in negative territory.

Market Extra: European stocks may run higher if they're not tripped up by China, Germany

European equities in October marked their biggest monthly gain since 2009, but signs of a hard landing in China could be one factor keeping stocks from moving much higher through the rest of the year.

Economic Report: U.S. travel abroad climbs to record level in September

U.S. travel overseas jumped in September to a fresh record, as Americans took advantage of a strong dollar.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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